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We can start with Thank you.

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Right Nice to be here. Yes. So, The paper. Converging and diverting trends in global welfare outcomes and policies.

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It's It's a long paper that car is a lot of ground. And I got 10 min, so I'll have to, to be the greatest person of something that is already really such as person or some pretty big topics.

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This is actually a chapter in the book that is under preparation. On Belfast, the politics of other policies in the global south and the global north edited by colleagues from Asia and Africa.

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And I have been asked to present one of the introductory papers, introductory chapters, this book.

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And sort of my motive for presenting it here at RC. 55 is that I would like you know to To check with you if if all the all the factual stuff in here is correct And that's also why I have uploaded all the primimimited book chapter.

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On the DISAB sites. So I'm going to give you a pitch of what this paper is about.

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And hopefully if you think this is interesting. If you think I could contribute, if you think you can correct me, I want to sort of.

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Add something I would be really really appreciate if you can send me an email. And, Correct errors come in new examples.

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And that kind of stuff. This is sort of my motive for presenting this this chapter in this in this group.

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Usually I present in RC 19. I'm a social policy scholar. Since this paper has a lot of debit indicators, indicators of convergence, I thought that RC 55 would be the place to go and you with the experts who could eventually.

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Make sure that I don't embarrass myself in front of my colleagues when this book is published. So that's, you know, the, and the introduction remark.

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So.

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Let's start this chapter by going into this old convergence debate, the native welfare policies, girlfriends, welfare states converged in the world.

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And it's what they converged towards. It is sort of the big debate in my field and the welfare policy field, right?

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And we have we have old-time modernization theory, we have old-style Marxist theory in which both are convergent theories, dark side and light side conversion theories and we have the post-modernists who are yard all talk of convergence.

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They are sort of oppressive. Narratives. With the exception of the grand narrative that there are no granaratives we wish itself in the grand narrative in my opinion.

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The thing I do in this paper, I sort of start with this grand theories. So the cache peoples.

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Interest so to speak then the argument here is that actually the question of convergence is not a theoretical argument at all. It's an empirical question.

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It's a pure empirical question. And we simply got to in a sort of flat-fooded empirical way try to see what are the indicators for we can use to find out if policies are converging or not.

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And what we actually mean by converting in the first place. A lot of these more general theoretical debate is actually rather fussy.

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About whatever they mean in the concept of convergence. So, you know, the contribution of this paper to the extent that it is something new.

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Is basically to sharpen over knowledge over awareness that this is really an empirical question. We just need to have data and agree on what we mean by convergence.

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And we need to agree on what we think but is very fair and not is a policy.

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So first thing that paper is doing is having a discussion about this really welfare and can we have a concept of welfare and can we have a concept of welfare and can we have a concept of welfare that we can use across globally.

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That is not of a cartoon sensitive in itself. And the main contender for a general concept of welfare that we might use in all the 196 countries on earth.

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Is to Take as a starting point, Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Article 22.

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Everybody wants to say, everyone has a right to social security. Since all countries on earth have actually signed their university declaration, therefore we can assume that from a policy point of view, all states have at least in a paid lip service to Article at 22.

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And if you go to the preambles. To Article 22. You can then check how the legislators of dealing with declaration defined social security.

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And they define this as follows all policy measures aimed at protecting individuals in life situations or conditions in which their livelihoods may be at risk.

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This is sort of a definition in the preambles. And I actually think also as a social policy color, it's a pretty good definition of what social health policies about.

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It is about protecting people in situations when their livelihood is at risk. Their lives is at risk.

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So you know having settled for that definition. Second question is what do we mean by policy? It's what VERBAN concept in English.

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Don't actually have it in my native language, Norwegian. And here I rely on Carrovice the grand old lady of evolution research whose work is very influential when it comes to international aviation is also in the World Bank, the Independent Evil Group in the World Bank is using her concepts.

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Who defines a policy as an officially accepted statement of objectives tied to a set of activities that are intended to realise the objectives in a particular jurisdiction.

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So a policy both has something to do with having goals. Having a certain set of activities. Programs and implementation practices and then you know going for some policy outcomes.

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So when we're dealing with converging on emerging trends in Global Weather Out of Government policies, we go to find out are they convergence in the policy goals where we live across these 196 countries are there convergence in the implementation means the US in order to Get to these policies.

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Are they convergence in policy outcomes? Okay, 3 different things. And actually, we kind of converge in one of them without having converge in the other 2 and again I'm converting for different reasons.

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Can we look at different reasons for this? So this is sort of the pedagogical way I go about to.

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To deal with these issues. I've also, or if you pick us do not bleed. This classic, this relates to the second part of the paper.

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First part is used conversion going on and if I had time enough I hope I'm going to convince you that yes there are convergence across all of these things.

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There are convergence when it comes to welfare policy goals across all these 196 countries there are convergence when it comes to the implementation systems they use.

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And there are actually convergent when it comes to very many of the central Policy outcome indicators.

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Why is this happening? And the theory I putting forward is that it has something to do with the fact that policies generally might be what they call demand driven.

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In the very long run, I assume that policies in a country This is a two-year-old perspective here.

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POSIS in a country is demand-driving its own majority on population want. That in the long run we'll decide policies in this field.

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Supply side politicians will have a shorter effect than in the long run it is majority demands. And that the minority demand for predictability and certain and safety in your everyday life that's at the bottom of Muslims hierarchy.

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It is very close. It's not a human universal in a strict sense, but it is something that is probably shared by the majority of populations in the country.

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And the argument is that told us politics is really Different aspiring rulers trying to satisfy this majority demands If they succeed, then they are reelected.

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Or if it's an autocratic system, they are not, you know. Disposed off.

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If not, you know, this process goes on until the majority is satisfied. If there are changes in the risk structure, If you have a new round of political games until you have a new equilibrium actually This is sort of, it's silly.

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Politics is a selection mechanism. To satisfy majority demands. Goodin Shakespeare here because this famous The film's covert by Shylock, the Jewish moneylender.

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Telling the Gentiles in the in this play. On behalf of the Jews, if you prick us, do not bleed.

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If you tickle us, do we not love? If you're poisonous, you will not die.

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And if you wrong us should have no revenge.

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And at least 3 firsts of them are actually human universals.

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So, you know, get all human beings. And the argument and theoretical argument in this paper is also that regardless of gender ethnicity or identity for those people who have identities This stuff is basic and welfare policies.

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Will show that this is the case. Now we've got the sign that I have 5 min left already.

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That's how it is. So let me Just, then very shortly say that. Run you through the basic arguments.

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When it comes to See if I can manage to.

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Shift this one.

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Better. No.

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Sounds good. How do you get on from here? I

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That I guess.

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Right. Trust the world alone. Okay.

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Doesn't matter. Again, I can take it. Yeah, okay. First question is the political goals or rulers have become or similar.

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So, you know.

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First of all, we have the Universal Literation Human Rights signed by everybody. That's just A statement I'm intent, however.

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It is not an illegal bite. But if Governments ratify conventions. Then things start to have a little bit more precise and then 3 most important human rights conventions, the conventions on economic social and cattle rights have been ratified by 171 countries.

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A convention on people, rights people with disabilities, 577 countries and a convention of the rights of the child by about 196 countries.

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Only the US hasn't signed that room. The US has domestic policies that is similar.

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We also have Thank you. That's what's a good idea. So, you know, human rights.

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Is one. The other is that we see What nominal convergence also when it comes to the major social health policies.

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All countries now have almost all countries. Have systems Then it comes to old age, disability, sickness.

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Illness and surviving I provided. Not everybody, not more than 50% of all states have unemployment insurance, but all the other ones are covered.

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We also see that there has been a tenancy across time that larger groups of citizens get access to these systems.

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The typical system in the world is Bismarck Young systems. Basically means that you know from between 10% to 2 thirds over people in the territory have access to these systems.

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But because time there has been an extension of coverage either by extending these social insurance systems. China these days is a particular important Taiwan.

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In South Korea than just a few decades ago. And either countries do this or countries put in place. Tax finance minimums, which is very popular these days, conditional cash transfers and the like.

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So they get mixed in assurance and assistance systems. Yeah, so broader coverage is a sign of qualified convergence.

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I can see that I'm going to be short on time here. So let me just say that another sign of convergence is the 1 million development goals.

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8 goals, 21 operational targets. And we know how this sustainable development goals, 17 goals and 231 operational indicators.

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He are also goals that everybody has agreed on. It's a sign of outcome management just on the global level.

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The idea is, you know, all countries have a greed on these 17 goals. They had agreed on operational indicators.

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And then you know classical type of of new parent management in a sense Countries aren't free to decide themselves how to reach these objectives.

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But they are sort of measured on on these indicators. Having all this indicated also means that we now have 273 indicators which can measure pulse outcomes.

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And if they are converging or not, when it comes to party outcomes, We can simply use the coefficient of variation of the standard deviation to check if countries become more similar when it comes to how they measure on these indicators.

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And they are actually doing so. I'm just illustrating it here under fi mortality which is the single most effective and best measure or absolute deprivation in the country.

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How many children survive until age 5 shows clear convergence both absolute and relative? The same to the Human Development Index.

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And the same also is the case when it comes to GDP per capita.

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Yeah, this is just for illustration. This is the coefficient variation for the Human Development Index.

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I would love to speak more about the most controversial issue here is that if we have convergence when it comes to GDP per capita but you'll have to read the paper to Check if that's just the case.

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And if I could sort of the final slide.

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Oh, just a final comment. All of you, I'll get this paper that you see an an agreement on the same bill for goals across the Global Staff on the Governors, MTGs and LEDs.

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The CFR IOAFA policies on policies on policy implementation practices that we actually see convergence when it comes to both the most important human rights treaties.

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And connections are also when it comes to head and social policy systems. You see this improved and partially converging trends in many welfare outcomes since MGGs were introduced if operationalizes changes in AE another health and social well-for-active measures.

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But The reason why I've seen this convergence is Probably to a limb to limited extent due to politics at all.

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Everything is coming up at the same time and in particular the global demographic transition. Is you know the main driver for these convergence.

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And the global democratic transition is tied to technological change, economic globalization, urbanization. Absence of global scaling conflicts and not least changing gender roles and all these social changes are also very important factors in driving this convergence in in policy outcomes.

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Thank you. Yeah, okay. It's true. And if you are interested in this dressing presentation and communication.

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The portal will have the full. So please, this is interesting, read it. My name is there, send me your comments and then pick the system and Factor owners in particular I remember and really appreciate from your company because there's a lot of examples I come from social policy backgrounds I spent 40 years Do you.

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The B.

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Can I ask a question? Yes. They want to go away, right?

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Yeah, so you do into them and can you talk a little more about the causal processes behind this convergence that you're serving.

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But that's why we put in this textbook. I sort of, I would argue that at least it's my working hypothesis in many ways that stuff I've written.

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Actually, If, if welfare policies is about protecting people against risks, it's not about equality, it's not about taking care of the poorest, it is about protecting the majority against risks in in lives.

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That is a preference that the majority is likely to share. If a majority shares that preference. Then you know politicians that succeed in satisfying the majority demand for security and predictability in their life.

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They will tend to succeed, be reelected, and the same actually goes for autocratic systems.

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A democratic systems are also very sensitive to majority demands. And I actually have this argument that autocratic systems, this is a working hypothesis that I've tested it.

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Might actually have less redistributive. Policies because they don't need to need to care about the unorganized poor in a democracy I have to care about or everybody but usually in autocratic system the real who are not third body systems or they come very late because there's also in business marketing systems.

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Good old Bismarck. He put this system for blue-collar workers, manual work is well organized.

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Urban which pose a threat to the regime. And they are in addition to the military civil servants and also black color workers.

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They tend to be the first groups in most countries who get welfare policies. Which is sort of difficult to understand if you think that the point of welfare policies is to care for the poorest.

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But it's very easy to understand if you think that the point of weather policy is the main point of anthropology from the point of view of rulers.

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Is to make sure that that they stay in power. So, so the realist argument if you. But there is more than that.

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There's not only that, you know, but it's the crude. My name is Ray D here.

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I am a partition of the Chinese. In those and at the same time they lost. Thanks for your presentations.

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Now you're talking about converging and diverting in in the sense of the welfare of policies.

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Various countries but at the same time we talk about the global law and they go over the cell. Now specifically when people talk about the global drove and law and build those out.

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Which particular countries is specifically to pay

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Good question. Actually the editors of the book talk about the global north and the global south. And since I was agreed to write a chapter in their book, I have to use the concert myself.

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Both you know as I also specify and I guess that's underneath your question the global south is more than 100 more than 100 countries.

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And it's rather difficult to say that there's lots of things in common with with Tuvalu with 12,000 inhabitants and China with 1.2 billion, right?

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South Sudan again is a different cup of tea. So you know I actually in this in this I use the dichotomy between low Midland and high income countries to large but you know I pay some lip service to the concert to Global North and Global South because you know that's what the editors want me to

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do. Now generally we develop a lot. You are in the global north. And global south countries are lower middle income countries.

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But I sort of agree with you. It's a little bit awkward, but you know.

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Sometimes you can use this, you know, in a rough way.

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Situation of prevailing. It's a convention to talk about the globals. Nothing else.

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Are big issues. And in general in the research community we usually go for each issue. We do at the certification of treatment that we can measure.

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And then we can, for example, one thing that we can We can take off your preparation if we use the conversions we can see in one moment in a time or 2 or 3 moments and now no.

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And this general amount of indicators of one topic, another topic of the first topic and then we can answer your question because the topic of the topic and the first topic and then we can answer your question because your question and then we can answer your question because your question is why and it's important.

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What it makes us afford to answer.

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Degenereton, we can say that the globalization and to the converges. Like we have to measure and we have to see in different countries because the different countries are different of course and the process has different in each of them and then we have to take care about that we are Speaking now, but I mean it's very interesting

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that the service direction really and everything else that we have to try to Google and conduct 2 indicators. And then 2 measure is very important.

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That is a problem of deception that you have. Yeah, so, so, so, so really didn't send me your comment.

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Actually, writing it was sort of a therapy kind of thing for me because usually I only study on a few countries like that but finally somebody asked me to write the chapter about the whole thing, right?

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So yeah, no I can, no I can do it. You see, you can tell me if I succeed if you send me some comments afterwards.

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I have some indicators. And I actually will argue that it's pretty simple to find out if you have the argument that it's pretty simple to find it out if you have indicators and more than one time point.

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And just, yeah, I don't really see one question because I'm talking about actually.

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I think that this is a really valiant effort, especially for example, anybody who's subscribing social quality to Aspirin Anderson.

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Really hard-time agreement isn't true for everything in Europe by itself. And so with that in mind, I was hoping maybe you could tell us just a little bit more about.

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What convergence into our behavior. Convergence towards life. I think correctly speaking. And whether this is kind of convergence towards I guess for Robert, love our coverage for everyone for a journey of business sort of.

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The entire Alzheimer's phenomenon happening here. Just a couple of things. And it's like, how you measure convergence?

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For example, whether you take account coverage rates, which I guess Can I use Conner Celestia and Good Smugs when it comes to policy outcome convergence?

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An objective certificate just, you know, do that. And I'd like to set a convergence in there.

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And I'd like to set a convergence in where we can be carried out using such simple statistical algorithms that can be carried out using such simple statisticity statistics as the variance and standard deviation.

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They can be carried out using such simple stats as the variance and the standard deviation. Drop in the value of the standard deviation.

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Drop in the value of these measures over time can be seen as a standard convergence and an increase as a standard divergence.

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Property however, a property of the variance and standard deviation is that the values rise with the average value of the data set we should have applied.

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To account for this, we can use the so-called coefficient of variation defined as the standard deviation divided by the value of the average or the corresponding dataset.

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Very simple. Keep it simple, very, very simple. In order to distinguish the results of these 2 sets of criteria we may apply the term ability convergence in not having a drop in the value and absolutely converging.

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Blast what I'm doing here just showing it. What's going on here? Yes. Anyway, so that's that is converted policy outcats and it comes to concert convergence in In policies I use Another scholar who argued that in order to say it is something about policy convergence We need to have a

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measure of policies at 1 point I find T one and another measure of the same policies, not point at time t to become a more similar convergence means that country A contribute B or both countries must have initiated changes in this time period that are reduced that difference observed in T one.

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Yeah, very, very simple, very simple.

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Okay. Yep.

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16 and somebody can check that if this the suit is working It's only for me. And and ticked my one music.

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So I'm presenting a paper, so I'm presenting a paper or the results from a conjoined experiment or a factorial survey experiment.

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On class perceptions in Africa and I say while I'm talking about class here this really what I'm capturing here is more socio economic status.

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The literature or the debate that this is motivated by is that wrong ranging discussion by now about the new middle classes in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Can I just get a quick show of hand how many of you are familiar with this debate about the new middle classes in Africa.

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Okay, so that's a it's a debate mostly led by economists I would say and by 8 agencies and private sector consulting firms and so on.

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It was triggered by a policy brief, just a very short piece, 8 pages by the African Development Bank in 2,011 where they looked at changes in income distributions in absolute incomes in Africa and they saw that there was an expansion of incomes in the middle of the distribution.

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So basically more and more people moving above the extreme poverty line and the authors of this African development band study then conjectured that there was something like an emerging new middle class in southern Africa.

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And then this triggered a white ranging debate again among 8 agencies, private sector, consultants, Deloitte and so on.

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They all involve them. But again, this was a debate that was mostly led by economists who looked at income distributions and it lacked more or less any type of any sort of sociological detail.

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There were some cross steps with for these people in these middle income ranges and then the level of education and so on but there was no further sociological detail.

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And so several critics immediately jumped on this and said, OK, what is this? You are presenting a completely a historical and non-contextualized definition and conceptualization of the middle class here in Africa that importantly that omits a lot of earlier class.

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Based literature in the region and that literature typically I have some citations down here that legitimately goes back to the colonial or the post-colonial, the immediate post-colonial period.

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And in that literature, people tend to focus on other non-monetary dimensions such as education. Imano Welstein has a couple of applications on that.

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We also know from more recent research by Alessina at all that education still is a very strong determinant of your life chances in the region, very low levels of educational mobility, inter-generational mobility and education in the region.

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Others, that's more in the post-impendence period focused on occupational types and specifically the strengths of somebody's associations with the government.

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This is the literature on the so-called state classes in Africa, which existed also in other parts of the world, but it was particularly strong in Africa.

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I saw again a couple of authors here. I'm Kathy Boone. Markovitsi was also an important one.

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But basically the argument here was that we need to look at how closely you are, especially in terms of your employment, how closely are you related to the government or not?

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Because there tended to be a strong stratification between those with links to the government and those without.

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And others have focused on assets. So not looking at income, but There's also more recent debate, for example, whether you own a car or a scooter or a motorcycle or something as a shortcut for determining whether you should be considered as middle class or not.

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And that's my first question actually. So what dimensions, what indicators should we look at when we want to say whether somebody is middle class or not.

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And then the second question and critique about this study by the African Development Bank was that the income range that the bank used to refine people in the middle class was far too broad.

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They basically started at the $2 a day poverty line. $2 per capita property line just for purchasing power parity and then went up to $20 a day.

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But in that large income bracket, most of the trends that they were documenting were driven by people by expansion in the group of incomes between 2 and $4 a day.

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So those are people who are still very, very close to the extreme poverty line and who have very high risks of falling back into extreme poverty.

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And the African Development Bank themselves, they called them the floating class. But that's really where most of the music was.

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That was where most of the changes that were documented by the FDB study, but the African Monoman Bank study took place.

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And so that, but then if you have so many people who are so close to poverty and still vulnerable to poverty that then raises questions.

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Can we call these people in middle class or not if they lack any basic level of economic or not if they lack any basic level of economic security and obviously their life chances are also quite limited.

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So what I'm proposing moving away a bit from how the economists usually look at this, really just looking at income distributions and household incomes or expenditures.

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So I'm proposing why don't we just ask people what they think would be important. The sets of criteria they need to be fulfilled for somebody to be called middle class.

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So I would basically go around the room and ask you, what do you think needs to be in place for a person for him or her to be called middle class.

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And I asked that form in a survey, lots of people. So that should then give me a subjective or perception-based measure of what needs to be in place for somebody to be called middle class.

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The problem with doing that is that in the real world a lot of these indicators that we commonly look at so income expenditure education occupation type and so on are highly correlated.

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I guess most of us we are probably somewhere in the middle class in our home societies. And then the question starts, is that because of our education level or because of our work type or because of our income level.

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And it's really hard to distinguish that because it's all intercorrelated. And this then makes it very hard obviously for both the researcher but also for the people for both the researcher but also for the people whom I want to ask the respondents for both the researcher but also for the people who I want to ask the respondents to really say

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this is the respondents to really say this is the main indicator that we should use to say this is the main indicator that we should use to decide whether somebody is middle class or not.

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And I should stress that underneath all of this there is a belief that we should try to value parsimony, right?

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We should ideally try to limit our analysis to S few indicators as possible. Right? And then you present a profile of that facetious person to the server respondents and ask them, OK, is this person middle class or poor or upper class and so on.

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And because it's an experimental setting, you can then break the correlation between the different dimensions.

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That would normally go into these descriptions of whether somebody is I'm drawing on earlier literature and sociology and here I should reveal that I'm not a sociologist.

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I'm a sociology and here I should reveal that I'm not a sociologist. I'm not a sociologist.

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I'm a product scientist who works a lot with quantitative methods and my PhD was in development studies in the UK.

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That's where I'm coming from. And I was actually struck that there were these methods already used and stratification and class analysis in the 1,970 in sociology mostly to look at questions like occupational prestige and so on and then they seem to have disappeared and I see now that factorial serve experiments

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or contract experiments are mostly used in my area in political science and economics. So maybe that's a question to the audience whether I'm missing something here, a good reason why they are no longer used in stratification research.

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I'm trying to bring them back in and to my knowledge I am the first one to do this both in Africa but even beyond Africa I haven't really seen any other recent studies.

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That do this. So very quickly to make this more concrete what the experiment looks like. So we basically have a, I read out.

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This was a form based survey and the survey numerators read out these short vignettes to people on the phone describing somebody's situation to them and that somebody's situation differed by whether they were men or women.

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So these are fictitious individuals. Their income levels, so this is in Kenya, so it's all in Kenyan shillings and so you can see that the income level increases whether the person owns a bicycle or a motorbike or a car that you level increasing from not having computer primary education to university

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education, that type of employment. So government employee linking back to that debate about the state classes. And employee in private enterprise, a farmer or somebody who runs a small business.

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And then also to look at these concerns or to get at these concerns about the high levels of vulnerability among people who are in the middle of the income distributions in Africa, economic vulnerability, economic and security, also whether this person has sometimes or never struggled to put food on the table for for lack of income.

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Right and this is then again it's implemented then through this vignette that has read out the server respondents and everything that's in right here that varies randomly.

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And when I look then at the correlation matrix, nicely no correlation between these dimensions or the randomization here has worked quite well and then the respondents are asked to determine whether this person is poor, lower middle class upper middle class or wealthy. Right?

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That's the that's why I said earlier this is not really about classes more about socioeconomic status, what I'm looking at you.

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But following very closely what the African Government Bank does and how they thought about certification in Africa. So this was based on a on a phone-based survey among 1,000 respondents in Kenya implemented at the later tail end of the Copa pandemic in 2,021.

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I control for a couple of questions on whether the respondent felt that he or she was strongly influenced by the pandemic but I hope that this didn't really buy the results.

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Every respondent evaluated for vignettes so that gives me an estimation sample of 4,000 observations.

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And I report average marginal component effects AMC that's based on this by now famous study by Heimel at all on how to interpret and estimate results on these factorial or conjoined experiments.

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You basically use a very simple linear regression OS to estimate these effects. And so what I find, and I didn't expect this, but what I find is that income indeed in line with what the African government bank was doing dominates perceptions of whether somebody should be called poor middle class or lower middle class middle class and so

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on. I do find a small but insignificant but much smaller effect of education and also work type and in line with that early literature about the state classes.

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Whether you work in government for government, that is still a strong predictor of higher class status. Legacy effect of the state classes, even though I should have mentioned the state classes are no longer after structural adjustment in Africa in the 19 eighties and nineties the state classes have shrunk quite a bit but there still seems to be some legacy

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effect. 5 min great. Okay. I also find that economic vulnerability has a really strong effect here, but in an effect that is not always fully in line with expectations.

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I find that for the server respondents it's really hard to distinguish between people who are poor and people who are lower middle class in the sense that somebody who has high levels of economic and security vulnerability can still be called lower middle class according to or by the respondents.

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I'm not quite sure on top of this in a way that supports again what the African Development Bank is doing by using this really broad income range to define the middle class.

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But obviously it shows that we have to be careful what we mean when we talk about middle classes in Africa because effectively these are people who are still very vulnerable economically speaking and they're also this is also part of the perceptions and how experiences of middle classness work in the region.

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Right? Not such a big surprise given that these are low-income regions where poverty and vulnerability are widespread but it's a strong result.

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Also interestingly I found I find no signs of a gendered effect on perceptions of class.

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So that where where randomly varied the gender of the fictitious person that has no effect.

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This is to make this more concrete. The the Ace Me's so that based on this mission.

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So here you see that income really dominates. We see expected effects. So having a car is small but likely to be associated with a higher class status.

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And the perceptions of the respondents. Education also increases but those are smaller effects compared to the income variable here.

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Like I said, compared people who are in government employment, everybody else is considered to be lower status. And then a fairly strong effect of whether the fictitious person faces income shortfalls so they're the indicator for economic insecurity.

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What's interesting here, especially on this vulnerability dimension. So this is what I mentioned earlier. Actually being quite economically insecure having problems to put food on the table makes you more likely to be called lower middle class.

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That's a strong result here and less likely to be called upper middle class. So this is what I mentioned earlier to be called upper middle class.

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I run a couple of robustness tests on this. So first of all, I exclude unrelated combinations of attributes.

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There were no constraints in the randomization. So for example, I exclude and robustness checks people who are in the experiment presented as having high income but no schooling and there are other combinations that are excluded.

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It's reported on paper. My survey was over representing people with university education so I excluded respondents server respondents with university education and got very similar results.

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I control, for and run interactions with respondents, attributes that correspond to the attributes in the experiment.

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Those do not really yield any patterns. So I do not report them even in the paper. And I use, I do a couple of external ability tests.

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Both using respondents own attributes and then seeing how they as they estimate their own class status and predict that on their own attributes.

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And also I use a farometer survey data to look beyond Kenya. I think this is maybe perhaps most interesting, the vulnerability test because there's often a concern that these experiments are very low external validity.

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They have stronger internal validity but less external and so I basically use Effra barometer survey data from 16 countries from the last round of the service that had lots of questions on the social economic status and and class that was the round 2 of their programmable surveys.

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This is respondents in the effigarometer survey respondents own perception of their own socio economic status, right?

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Whether they're poor or lower middle class and so on. And I find very similar patterns to the contrary experiment.

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So that gives me some confidence that there is some external ability to my results. Am I out of time?

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Okay, so very quickly. So I think what this study finds is some support for this growing trend also in other areas of certification research to move towards income-based measures.

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Again, that's not what I expected and I thought this would be a neat way to take down what the African Penguin Bank was doing.

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But then in the end I was surprised how well-income works here and there seems to be a bigger trend in the literature.

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But I think it's important to acknowledge that there are other dimensions as well. So in my case, education, assets and work type, especially whether you are a government employee, those also matter and I think we should still look at them because those have potentially stronger political implications, especially whether you're a government employee or not.

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This one is another interesting one, the distinction between poor and lower middle classes seems to be hard to draw. It's very blurred.

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Again, it's not that surprising. In a region like Southern Africa where poverty and vulnerability are just very widespread and where they do extend far into the middle of society.

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But it comes out quite strongly from from this experiment. And then maybe to conclude, interestingly, what I find when I look at the server respondents own class status and their own reported political behaviors I find very little correlations.

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So what I document here is about class and status perceptions but not necessarily about little behaviors. That seems to be another story.

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And in my other work on this topic, which is still in progress, I find that for example, surprisingly whether you're a farmer.

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If you're a farmer, you tend to be much more class conscious in Africa than in other world regions and that's possibly because there was a lot of state level organisations of farmers and farmers associations, marketing boards and so on.

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So maybe also some legacy effects of how the state tried to shape. Class relations in the region. But these status differences that I'm looking at here are not really strongly correlated with political behaviors except for vulnerability.

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Vonability is always a strong predictor of your liked it for example to turn out on streets to protest.

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Thank you very much.

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Oh, okay. Yeah. Hi. Thank you Frank so much for this presentation.

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It was really interesting to hear. I just have to do so much for this presentation. It was really interesting to hear.

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I just have to come in 2 of these 2 4 questions. Primarily really used to the optimum variable here.

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About the morning I was a little bit surprised to see that you've had M these categories of poor and then categories of the middle class and the wealthy.

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I'm wondering if you can. Are you the one who chose this wording or was it taken somewhere else I came?

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And how that was chosen exactly. Just say that doesn't support in the middle class or not necessarily.

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The same phenomenon. And the other question related to that is in the modeling. Have you tried using?

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Just keep regression or some sort besides all of us just because I get the sense that These are not necessarily kind of a linear relationship.

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Yeah, and he actually talked about this getting up fourth millennium plus or quite close to So I'm wondering how so all this is not necessary for us.

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Yeah, so unless I mean that's basically again because of this paper by Heimer at all and where they give you all the statistical proofs on how to interpret these OLets coefficients.

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So that's why I used OLS. I did also look at, I guess maybe that's where having worked too much with economists shows I used order probe models and find very similar coefficients very very similar.

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The wording of the outcome variable. So that went through a long process of back and forth with the survey team.

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So we've I mean okay we pilot tested this on a very small sample after admit that that sample was small but there's a long debate also in the experimental literature whether pilot testing is even worthwhile because you need certain sample sizes.

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But this, first of all, it tries to follow what the debate about the new middle classes in Africa.

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Users that terminology so where there is a distinction between people below the poverty line and their middle classes.

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But again, this was also tested with that small pilot sample and also lengthy discussions with the people who are then actually working as serving enumerators.

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Okay.

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Maybe in. Thanks for your presentation. How do you pronounce your surname? It's good.

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I'll just call you Frank. I think since you did the survey. And came out with and this notion of middle class.

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Don't you think you have to expand it? Further and then and bring in the factor of help.

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In Chinese. They have a saying. That one's help. Is your capital.

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Chen, Sir Ben Chan. If you have you are healthy. You can do anything else.

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You can be a millionaire. If you are not healthy, you can be publicly stricken. You get at work.

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Yeah. So, I think there is a big argument, especially after the pandemic. That help should be considered as one of those indicators.

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Of, that will point to the economic, social. And, and, and, well, big, yeah. So there is a constraint in these experiments that you cannot have too many dimensions.

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At some point, so there is a constraint in these experiments that you cannot have too many dimensions. At some point in these experiments that you cannot have too many dimensions that you cannot have too many dimensions. At some point the binets become too long.

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But we were talking about many dimensions. At some point the binets become too long. But we were talking about, so we were talking about health but mostly we were talking about whether we should also randomly vary the number of children because in the African context often having many children is considered a sign of wealth and status.

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While economically speaking that typically pushes down Europe household per capita income expenditure. So there is a tension here.

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In the end, we dropped that because we want to be as close as possible to this debate by the Economic Bank and this wider debate on on the new middle classes.

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But I take your point. This is absolutely important. I was actually wondering when I was in one of the sessions on subjective well-being.

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I was wondering what I would be listening to look at really what drives objective well-being in an African service samples.

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You typically look at income but perhaps number of children and so on would also be interesting to look at. And then urban rule, comparison and so on.

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Here again at some point there was a complication with including too many things in the experiment. There were some other questions I think, right?

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Yeah, thanks. Thanks a lot, Frank. Very interesting. Can you tell us something more about your sample and the data.

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Can you tell us something more about your sample and the data. So economic status or respondents and whether these interacted in any way with the outcome.

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So it's a sample of 1,000 respondents and was a computer assisted telephone interview, Katy.

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Because of the pandemic situation. So basically this went through ethics review and there was no way that this was going to be done in person.

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And yes, the sample, I mean the sample was. Meant to be nationally representative in the sense that as you often do in Formby service we fill certain quarters at some point when the quarter of a man was full then no more male respondents were allowed and then only women were interviewed from that point on.

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But as is common in form based surveys we had a fairly dramatic overrepresentation of higher educated individuals. Sorry to interrupt you.

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How did you submit vineette over the internet? Of a phone. The vignette was read out to people on the phone.

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Okay. Yeah. I thought you had a vignette with an image as well. Sorry, no, sorry.

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It was read out. Yeah. That's why because of this overrepresentation of higher skilled or higher-educated respondents in my robustness checks I exclude people who have higher educated respondents in my robustness checks I exclude people who have a higher level of education.

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And my robustness checks, I exclude people who have a higher level of education. I exclude people who have a higher level of education at basically university education and second robustness check even people who have secondary education and the results hold very similar trends.

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And note also that in the aferometer surveys which are used for externalability checks higher educated people are not overrepresented or at least not to our knowledge.

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On the interaction with respondents own attributes. So I did run those and there were no visible patterns.

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I control for them and then I run into action. So are you a man? Okay, is that fictitious person in the man and so on?

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Nothing.

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Small thinking. Yeah, thank you for your presentation. I think coming back to the way the question you are is he poor or you know middle class or wealthy.

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I think if I am not a that I will think about my income. So by your mind how I can respond to you okay I am middle class or I'm up with class so that while following your command on the you look at the hair and other measure so I think the other way to expand this is you may think about the access to

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the okay access to the clean water, especially for African countries. The other thing, because when you look at that you don't see their difference between man and woman.

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I think many who in Africa are very highly related to the working status. So, instead of asking, you know, whether you may and a woman, you don't see the significant differences.

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But if you ask whether you're working or not and how many hours you work. That could be very, you know, strong, very little.

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Somehow you can defy, you know, social class here. Yeah, that might come in.

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Thank you. Yeah, also working. I mean, I think here it gets a bit complicated in suburban societies because basically everybody's working right there's not I mean and it's really hard to define things like are you in the labor force or not are you employed unemployed? So I think these are a bit harder to capture.

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We tried to get through this one once a small business that's basically meant to capture and formality along.

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Again, this went through a long discussion with survey numerators. Again, this went through a long discussion with survey numerators and again pilot testing and so on.

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Yes, thank you. Also for your presentation. I have Same comment as his if you put in already pour and wealthy in the question you trigger the people for the income and the second thing is at least I know it for some countries in South America the distribution of the income is very, so if in Chile you take off the top 10% it's

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the most equal society. And then it becomes very difficult to distinguish the poor from the lower middle class. If you just start thinking what is a class if you are thinking of income.

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So there I think that's one thing. And the second point is. If you want to make a counter because your political scientist to the World Bank, wouldn't you have to use kind of The theories and say which indicators and ask the people in the combination of these indicators to see what understanding do they they have.

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So is somebody who owns a thing and is not a worker is that higher person than a person who is submitted to working for somebody else.

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There's some, you know, that would be kind of the The Marx Marxist perspective for example.

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Or is somebody who has command over so and so many people higher than this instead kind of pushing away from the money thing to see is there a class society according to the theories.

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If you take those up. Otherwise you can take like the Leaveen's lucky, the living conditions approach which Talks about the deprivations and you look at how that look that's a different approach which goes more into the monetary one but here you're from my point of view you kind of mixed up the 2. Yeah.

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Now I understand your problem. I have the same. Hmm. To some extent, I mean, okay, in a theoretically unguided manner that is done by the vignettes where this varies, where the person has to respond and has to choose, OK, see this person.

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High education owns just a bicycle and works for government. What do I prioritise here?

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But it's theoretically unguided. Give up my control. That's where the I did want to comment on the poor middle class, and I agree, and I discuss it in the paper.

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This pushes the respondent potentially towards the income variable. But it is really in my own experience also how people in the region Let's try toification, right?

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And maybe that is already a reflection of so many poverty-focused, and maybe that is already a reflection of so many poverty-focused aid programs having been implemented in the region and social policies and so on possible.

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But I think it is often the way people talk about these strata in the region and again this went through long discussions and we were playing around with different concepts here.

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And I do find it interesting that I also discuss in the paper that obviously the dependent rubble is ordinal and that likely prioritizes predicting variables that are also autonomous.

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But we find that the effect is much stronger than education which is also all on. But yeah, I take your point and I hope the reviewers from the journals will not be too critical.

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On that one.

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Thank you so much for your work. Also in the same way that We speak about the Africa. We are, it's very interesting the people that send you the services.

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If the people have electricity if the people have bathroom for example share the bathroom is very important you cast has to take the Latin American indicator.

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To do that and take it and apply because it is the same. For example, access to electricity, access to, well, take Osera a bathroom and they as a cinemanto how do you say in English as in amento do you know yeah yeah yeah the asinami and thought that I don't know

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how to say, you understand, is a measure that I don't know how to say but you understand is a measure that is asinamian thought that I don't know how to say but you understand is a measure that is fantastic a predictor of of class in in Latin that I don't know how to say but you understand is a measure that is fantastic a predictor of of class in in Latin America

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and is a measure that is fantastic a predictor of of class in in Latin America and you also can use a predator of of class in in Latin America and you also can use.

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And the other thing is that the occupation, for example, there are a lot of measures that can organize the occupations in the other thing is that the occupation for example there are a lot of measures that can organize the occupations in a hierarchical, for example, there are a lot of measures that can organize the occupations in a hierarchical way.

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Then you can take a measure that can organize the occupations in a hierarchical way. Then you can take this measure.

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I know that you have only And it's really interesting that the question that you have made at the first when you start because because you say that.

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We for for approximate the certification measure of country we have done in our countries and also in Europe a strategy like more or less like you presenting in terms of.

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Doing a technological classes. Showing a lot of indicators. And this is a really interesting way to approximate tomorrow at 5 30 we have our presentation about that then you can but in general you didn't find in the in the literature because there are there were strong discussion about the indicators of socialist certification and we have some of them

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that works very well. Type of things. Because have the potential. That you can see the intergenerational a change during during during the time.

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Because we have the same problem. We apply a very sophisticated approximation to class. Using a lot of indicators but when we have to measure the intergeneration we have not the same importance then we are looking for the simplicity and we use the work of the Father and the mother if she had.

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Has a work and the son or daughter, and then we can measure this and this is very simple and this is put you in a very simple and this is put you in a system office ratification for that reason you didn't find in the system of his ratification.

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For that reason, you didn't find in the literature some approximation about that but still we are working on that.

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Tomorrow we will show it. And thank you very much for your opportunity. Just quickly right. So we did have, initially I was playing around using these transformers for water and sanitation and electricity and other public utilities.

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And I also have a paper on acid indices that use these variables documenting geographic and social inequalities documenting geographic and social inequalities in Madagascar.

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So I also like this in disease, and social inequalities in Madagascar. So I also like these indices, but it was interesting.

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So I also like these indices, but it was interesting, again, during the pre-testing and the discussions with the enumerators and the discussions with the enumerators, they pushed back hard on this and they said, OK, if you include that, they pushed back hard on this.

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And they said, OK, if you include that, you're basically going to pick up some implicit urban peri urban versus rural divide.

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And that's maybe not what you want. And that's why in the end we went for the transport asset.

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And there's also in this literature linked to the new middle classes. Some people say, somebody has a motorbike or a car and then classify them accordingly.

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But your point is really well taken. Yeah, but not in the experiment, right? Because it's fictitious.

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So we don't know where that person lives, no. So, okay, yeah, OK.

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Thank you to the representation that is to pre-record.

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Yeah. Hello, everyone. This is Hannah Fayou from Department of Sociology, Budan University in China.

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It's my pleasure to be here to share with you my study titled Revisiting the Tunnel in that economic growth income income inequality and subject robbing among the Chinese population.

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Sociologist Martin King White once proposed that social volcano puzzle to describe the mysterious relationship between happiness and income inequality.

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Indeed, as shown in figure one, during past 2 decades. Although Chinese people experienced a rising income inequality as indicated by the average provincial Jimmy coefficient.

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The average happiness also rise. Some right Chinese people tend to tolerate. Income inequality. 2 now, there are mixed findings concerning the relationship between inequality and substantive well-being.

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On one hand, most of the research found that in the party where we reduce happiness because being aquatic emotion in cultural perception there are lack of social trust and psychological deprivation or social comparison process.

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On the other hand, some are liar's research found that inequality may promote happiness. Why scholars proposed that people may only compare themselves with those who are socio-economically similar as themselves.

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So the overall gene-confision won't have done too much. In addition, some scholars like Professor Cindy also proposed that Chinese people accept the rising income inequality as a byproduct of economic development.

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In addition to all these explanations, scholars also point to the tunnel effect. There is people who anticipate higher income and lower inequality in the future.

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So they would tolerate income inequality. In fact was once proposed by Hutchman and Must Child in 1,900 seventys ray in their classic world titled changing tolerance for income inequality in the paper office made an analogy of tunnel traffic jam to this crime under the background of ravaged economic

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development. When information is lack for people which unified their future income from other people. That is their reference world.

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At once, they will feel gratitude. So that described the panel impact as indicated in my figure 2.

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Vague economic development, which means uncertainty becomes robust group that can be emphasized with. Who generates a hard factor that future would be better.

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After that, the road. 2 types of EMDA support to title in fact. The first tide of evidence comes from developed countries.

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When we went to find in my best world and not reliable like other employees in the same company or other residents in same community.

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Spain has found that higher weapons in commerce, the happier one is. And the other types of evidence come from transition societies such as Poland in Russia.

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That was also on your match under the rabbit economic background. People will trade other people's higher income as their future incomes signal.

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So the higher reference in coming as a heavier one is How the case from China, although there was building like some research tied under the social comparison framework.

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And research based on knowledge in the productive framework found that regional genetic coefficient is positively associated with individuals happiness in such a situation as strongly as in areas and in regions with higher levels of inequality.

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So we found that there was 3 message gaps. First, most of the quiz stars, the college, the other normative inequalities to examine effect we need to take a model of such a comparison that is to apply individual income plus reference income model instead of in pile was junior profession to model.

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The Finns, Mrs. Gam, is that The time to research this not explore the heterogeneity of the this effect.

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But as suppose as suggested by a hedgehog, a title in fact should be stronger for those who were temporarily left behind in those who are more vulnerable to the impact of uncertainty.

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And said with Sage, that existing research almost are quite static but the title in fact is taneroid and it will change when the conditions and no longer maps the tunnel effect next page and even turned to opposite.

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So cross-bonding A, we proposed 3 research questions and hypotheses. The first one is does the tunnel in fact exist in China.

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To answer this question, we take a social comparison framework and define proper reference wealth and generating 2 types of weapons in common to get robust estimation.

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So we have 2 hypotheses. They are oxid. And the second research question is which group of people are more affected by the tunnel in fact.

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Following Pershmen's original proportions, we expect that young people and poor people are more affected by tunnel effects.

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And then because they are more sensitive to uncertainty in the future or because they are left behind temporarily. The same way such question is when there's a turning point.

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Have color impact to work effectively effectively. They need some private tasks such as lending to suspend economic growth.

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Adequate social mobility, strong social funds, prevailing cultural beliefs of meritocracy. They start existing trade analysis on the above mentioned dimensions of Chinese societies transition.

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We expect that 2,008 as a turning point so get our hypotheses fine. I would data as nationally representative data Chinese general social survey from 2,005 2,017.

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The final Simple, confessed. 68 Southern cases. Oh, very much the dependent management available as 5 packet race orders separate project happiness from very unhappy to find very happy and our independent variable include 2 times of reference in Kong.

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Menace, calculating one that's calculated with Zimbabwe and the other one is extracted from violent statistic earbuds.

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Our control variables include that responders own annual total income and other standard controls in happiness studies. We use a tool that will make the effect model to also take account into with that from provincial level.

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So then there exist a terror effect in China as indicated in our table one, the answer is yes. After controlling for one's own income and other relevant control levels, we found that the higher reference income is the higher ones.

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The heavier one is no matter how the difference in common as generated other by was in 7 manipulation or by Near Bookey extraction.

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So, by myself, supports hypotheses one.

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The title is back to, what, what influence which work more as indicated in our figure 3 and figure 4 we found that and stronger for young people that is those who are under under 30 years and for those poor people.

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Who rent the bottom 20 of the panto income distribution. And the same, my question is when there's a turning point as our trend analysis shows before 2,008 the panel in fact is quite positive and hit rising but after that it becomes smaller and even to a even become insignificant.

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So, our happiness 5 is partially supported. I am revisiting the theoretical conversation of the tunnel in fact and focusing on straight off with unsolved.

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As such questions, we employed multi-level models to long-term Cds's data spending 30 years where ships They are following main findings.

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First, the final effect does exist in China. We found that controlling for personal income. Reference growth income has a significant positive effect on the subject bombing of the Chinese population.

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Second. We found that the tunnel impact is heterogeneous and it's stronger for groups aged 40 and below and for whales whose income is in the lowest 20% of the overall income distribution. SIRED.

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With fumbling effect is indeed changing and in China, 2,008 is observed as a tenning point in fourth.

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Now we can. Of so positive in that after that the positive effect shrank significantly and even become insignificant.

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As are the research. This research is not without limitations but we as objectively defined income a strategy which was at risk of forcing comparison.

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But functions they don't have already been some recent studies. Who tried and that that tried to try and to explore the cave question of comparing to who at quite on the level.

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And a certain limit issue relates to our failure to directly examine the backness of nocturnal effect.

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That is a prospect for rising income in the future. And The thin one is where I don't know accurate enough to deduct the turning point for a title effect.

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But as always in Hudson. It is quite difficult to find exactly a term in client. So we look for a future.

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Research to need a deeper understanding of this classic theory. Thanks and all your comments are welcomed.

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I is not online. Yes, all. But if you want to come in something. Any on you.

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You see on Zoom? No, no, no. No, it's not. No, it's only they could record it somebody you know the communal effect how can explain I didn't get their idea of tunnel effect.

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I didn't get the idea of tunnel effect. How can I explain? II didn't get the idea of tunnel effect and I would like if you know maybe.

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Get out of you are in a tunnel. You've got 3 lanes of cars going. And one is going fast.

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This is original. And then you've got 2 which are maybe slowly either you try to win or you at the beginning your patient you say oh everything's starting to move they're moving fast That's kind of for happiness being.

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That's a perceived future income referencing. Both are moving fast. Soon my they will be moved and I will get more income.

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So that's why happiness increases according to her. And then suddenly there's a turning point where I say, hey, you're still moving and I'm not moving.

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So. Then you become unsatisfied. So that's kind of what she was looking at.

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In a short in nutshell. I think if we take off the original paper was that it's really hard to predict the turning point. But, yeah. But also, yeah.

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But, so, yeah. But also, yeah, yeah. But, but also the original technology.

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But I think the public might be your command if you, from like China or China. I, like, central economies, so by the hand we were so full.

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We didn't end up with We didn't end up right. So we're not gonna be at that.

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Our rivals have been after and we'll be off on the economy and then we all have increasing us.

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So even, you know, in time you could have been pretty pastel. But you feel happy done before.

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So basically you compare it with yourself which can change in. And it might go into the back of yours.

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He doesn't control what seems to be the key variable we can change in India personally because inequality can go up but if my personal income goes up maybe not at the same rate of we can change in India personally because inequality can go up but if my personal income goes up maybe not at the same rate of the richest because inequality can go up but if my personal income goes up maybe not at the same rate of the richest at the area but still

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unhappy But somehow he gets it. I see, so like a little district model. I don't think not.

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I don't think not, probably in Mona begin is, you know, the extent that marvel is high value, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

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So it's a really multinomial.

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Also, also some political variables can confound there no because you can stay happy because of the change of politics even though the inequality rise.

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Because if this is another thing that you have to control because you are in another model, then it's interesting to sing because it's not nothing to do here, but maybe it's an explanatory variable that you can.

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Yeah. I just like to elaborate on Rohani is explanation of happiness. Traditionally in, in traditional China.

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Happiness or joyful joyfulness. Is one of the 7 emotions of teaching. And among the 7 motions a person to maintain health, maintain health, maintain balance in the flow of one's emotions in the flow of one's emotions.

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He shouldn't be too angry, he shouldn't be too sad, he shouldn't be too angry, he shouldn't be too angry, he shouldn't be too sad, he shouldn't be too angry, he shouldn't be too sad, he shouldn't be too joyful, he couldn't, he wouldn't

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be too fearful. Those are the 7 emotions. But happiness stands up along this hierarchy of emotions.

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If you are happy, no matter whether you have money or not, it will that emotional condition will promote.

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The flow of your chee and your blood. So I think happy maybe it's a mile away flow through the website of the and the I tell you about the dimensional It is a cheap-loading probably in Hamaran so we ought to pay for value and by the money we don't have to keep you know looking in later than when

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we all handled so I think But metaphor, I need to get a week paid. Point. OK, we must move to the last presentation.

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Christine, are you there? No, Christian, no is a record. I think we can connect.

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Yes. 1 s.

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Yes, yes, 1 s.

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Okay, you will present Kristin. Can you share? Oh, fantastic. Oh.

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I can share my

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Stop share. Okay.

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Oh, well.

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Oh, thank you, Christian. I think that you. Thank you.

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Yeah. 1 s.

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Okay.

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Hi.

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See, see.

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Can you see my slide? Yeah, okay. We afternoon for everyone. I'm Christian, I present my research, working progress.

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Social mobility are comparison between Chile and Spain. For this I will present the proposed of this presentation some background and first time, after that, research the sign.

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And finally, some important, result and tentative conclusions.

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And the proposed for this presentation is. Present, analyze social mobility in 2 societies.

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In Chile and a spine. With gender analytical in this slide you can see, background and the initial, question is what time of intergenerational social mobility have occurred in Chile and spine.

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So, we are making the, Comparrison, er, and similarities in these countries.

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For example, and a spine and chile, they are, a late industrializing, countries according in 2,011 Aldo, they have different levels of development and different state model.

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A according to Martin of D list in 2020. And they has, for example, Spain has a economic match.

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Oriented over, a welfare state and in other case, Chile is oriented to, subsidiary state.

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So, we use the comparative method to compare case across the range of technicalities in order to understand the social mobility.

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Or we focus in this presentation in international intergenerational social mobility. And analyze. How, change the member of society, er, in, their social, occupational class.

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And so, respect they, or reaching class, for example, their relative parents. We use 2 matures for this question and first time, er, we use absolute mobility.

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Which tell us about the socialist structure in both of the IETs, Chilean Spain.

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Okay.

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And after that, we, use the relative, mobility. In another, another, a way there are some theories we use in this.

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I, we use the social position or store metal opportunities about the do bet in 2,011 and in education, is the most important, variable in the analyze.

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And, analysis. Sorry, and in this case we use the.

459
01:29:53.000 --> 01:30:07.000
In this, theory, or other theory about the education. A standard sample are a human development or a theory of the credentials.

460
01:30:07.000 --> 01:30:21.000
With explain the how education is a transcendental factor in the analyze

461
01:30:21.000 --> 01:30:34.000
In this slide, a We have a central element in the analysis of social mobility. Is the analysis of social mobility is the OED triangle.

462
01:30:34.000 --> 01:30:49.000
With deal, er, with origin destination and allocation, analysis in the direct interaction between a person's origin and social destination and the in-depth, er, interaction with a location.

463
01:30:49.000 --> 01:31:09.000
You can see that. Below you can see all the relation, er, the time go for example OD or region understanding association or E or region and education association.

464
01:31:09.000 --> 01:31:20.000
And ED education and destiny association. And they make a it possible to reflect on each of these association.

465
01:31:20.000 --> 01:31:24.000
And insulate them in

466
01:31:24.000 --> 01:31:28.000
What is Mark?

467
01:31:28.000 --> 01:31:35.000
How about the research and the sign? We use a for Spain, 3 surveys.

468
01:31:35.000 --> 01:32:02.000
And the living condition, disturbing the living condition, er in 2,005 and 2,011 I had to sign 2,019 with the sample 42 1,000 approximately

469
01:32:02.000 --> 01:32:32.000
For the She lay we use, er, the national, er, survey, er, for the social certification from the a 2,009 Which, er, is the survey that cover all the analyzed or analysis that have social mobility at the Latin America or a Latin America or in a international comparison.

470
01:32:36.000 --> 01:32:47.000
When they analyze. However, we have the international social program survey, er, in 3 years.

471
01:32:47.000 --> 01:33:11.000
A 2,009 and the 19 99. 2,019. A with in the sample is

472
01:33:11.000 --> 01:33:32.000
A thousand approximately. A we create they analyze with the, class. A GPS. And the in the socio regional we use the dominus where we maintain and gender purposes.

473
01:33:32.000 --> 01:33:55.000
Us we start the mine agreement from the social origin who has the best a the analyze. Oh, we use SPS, the stata and LAMB for the analysis.

474
01:33:55.000 --> 01:33:59.000
A statistical analysis.

475
01:33:59.000 --> 01:34:12.000
On some result or finding. In this slide you can see, er, the way graph shows them up movement and between the first and the last court.

476
01:34:12.000 --> 01:34:34.000
For, man mean and women in Spain and in Spain and Chile. And we can see that in the first court the movement were much more upward from the manual plus, to the service or professional class.

477
01:34:34.000 --> 01:34:56.000
But then in the later section and and here And the first section and the last court. A you can you can see there a fever downward or upward movement and much more.

478
01:34:56.000 --> 01:35:08.000
A downward movement, are provoked. In this case, the women, the descent in intergenerational social mobility is much clearer.

479
01:35:08.000 --> 01:35:23.000
But if we look at the global level and between men and women You can see, er, it's all way women who contribute most.

480
01:35:23.000 --> 01:35:32.000
This mobility upward mobility in this guy in both countries.

481
01:35:32.000 --> 01:35:34.000
18 5 min.

482
01:35:34.000 --> 01:35:55.000
Okay. More quickly in this slide, the more important, er, we can see a multinomial logistics projection we where we have the class destination as they depends variable with the manual class at the reference.

483
01:35:55.000 --> 01:36:22.000
A soul that question is the what are the probability of reaching the service class or intermediate class? The most important a categories is the higher education in this case in for overall, women.

484
01:36:22.000 --> 01:36:34.000
Other, the first core, for example, is always a factor that favors the probability of reaching to service class.

485
01:36:34.000 --> 01:36:48.000
For Chile similar to Spain but, er, some districts and this team chance may education contribute in comparable provocation to Spain, the probability of reaching to the service class.

486
01:36:48.000 --> 01:37:03.000
So, the first core for 2 young women would only mean in the channel 60% of 80% for You can see that.

487
01:37:03.000 --> 01:37:14.000
A other important element, we have a binary logistic regression comparison, upward mobility with all other mobility.

488
01:37:14.000 --> 01:37:31.000
Er inheritance or in mobility or doesn't however if the father has the highest occupation in Chile, it would be more relevant for women in terms of upward mobility.

489
01:37:31.000 --> 01:37:47.000
Some question on relative social and mobility for men in Spain. In social fluidity and women that is.

490
01:37:47.000 --> 01:37:59.000
A and fluidity in some association. And for Chile, er, you can see in qualities between Core are constant for both.

491
01:37:59.000 --> 01:38:20.000
Genders and sexes. And finally I very general conclusion social mobility. And the sociology maintains the association with social, er, destiny.

492
01:38:20.000 --> 01:38:37.000
In terms of absolute mobility women contribute more to upward mobility and higher education. It would be a predominant factor in,

493
01:38:37.000 --> 01:38:47.000
That's all. Thank you very much for your attention.

494
01:38:47.000 --> 01:38:56.000
Well, 9 min for questions and comments. Ace.

495
01:38:56.000 --> 01:39:10.000
Some comments? The Christian I would like to ask you about the interest and our effort to compare Chile and Spain or some Latin American countries.

496
01:39:10.000 --> 01:39:23.000
And some European countries and taking about some information about the effort that we have done in the project.

497
01:39:23.000 --> 01:39:51.000
The most difficult in this program was the sample in Chile. Because only we have one survey in 2,000 9 But after that, er, we find, er, threes or one serving with 3, er,

498
01:39:51.000 --> 01:40:12.000
Waves and a EPA E SSP. And we release the sample. And after that the most difficult is standardized the the sample with the GPS.

499
01:40:12.000 --> 01:40:24.000
Because the variable some variables are, different in, and survey or some categories and in some variables.

500
01:40:24.000 --> 01:40:44.000
And the other, difficult as the statistical, proof. Because, er, in Spain, the sample is more, more, big and, huge.

501
01:40:44.000 --> 01:40:59.000
So, the, statistical, proof are more sophisticated. But in. Is a not allow this or some a statistical proof.

502
01:40:59.000 --> 01:41:03.000
Well,

503
01:41:03.000 --> 01:41:32.000
I think they are the most, difficult, comparison. And the other maybe it's a a limitation because the Chile Contest is some different, about a Spain maybe for that, the fluidity in the women is, wrestling a start.

504
01:41:32.000 --> 01:41:45.000
But in in case the Spain the fluid meeting maybe is more a as low or in in terms

505
01:41:45.000 --> 01:41:47.000
And, yeah, we understand.

506
01:41:47.000 --> 01:42:01.000
Yeah, that, yeah, but in I think this is the the limitation in my case

507
01:42:01.000 --> 01:42:23.000
Thank you. Question This is a hard work in order to have information in international comparison and I was thinking in the case of Africa that is always disappeared in the international context because we have not information, we have not surveys.

508
01:42:23.000 --> 01:42:53.000
I don't know if you work with a special work in your case and I don't know the case of Africa in terms If you ask for such an awakey picture?

509
01:42:54.000 --> 01:43:01.000
Simple as in Africa. You have common census numbers, but sometimes you have that but it's I mean typically people use education.

510
01:43:01.000 --> 01:43:11.000
Oh that's not in terms of probability. Your education because it's easier. Because the African barometer, this kind of transformation is not present.

511
01:43:11.000 --> 01:43:22.000
There is, there is information on the respondents of your patient, but not on the parents. And also, I mean, people all say that, but occupation isn't even that.

512
01:43:22.000 --> 01:43:29.000
Rather than because people have and now we have several jobs on it. So we have to put it on.

513
01:43:29.000 --> 01:43:33.000
One evening, they like to take.

514
01:43:33.000 --> 01:44:01.000
I was just thinking because there are least economists had some information. On income mobility from Chile and I don't remember the name I was thinking but I don't have the article here or I think a group of them wrote a lot on how whether they moved up or down over time and it was always a very close it was always

515
01:44:01.000 --> 01:44:13.000
kind of moving not very up but very close into the next step or moving down one step. So it was a very mobility, a very restrained mobility just a little bit up or a little bit down.

516
01:44:13.000 --> 01:44:26.000
But of course that they used mainly if I remember well. It was only income. But I was, I thought I think they used it from this.

517
01:44:26.000 --> 01:44:54.000
As Social Security because there's a lot of data available from administration and I was wondering whether You couldn't try to do something like that and they have it over time and as far as I know it's also accessible to combine kind of education and income from these data to see if you can overcome the limitations that you presented.

518
01:44:54.000 --> 01:44:55.000
Tracy.

519
01:44:55.000 --> 01:45:17.000
Yes, I take your point and maybe I will look the this article But in my case, I don't use the income because the increase in income is more difficult to compare.

520
01:45:17.000 --> 01:45:44.000
But in the when you use the occupational plus a in some society you have a high So, Hi, the social class, but the income is more difficult to analyze in this case.

521
01:45:44.000 --> 01:45:59.000
But, I take your point. I analyze for the, maybe, The original purpose for this, a reset.

522
01:45:59.000 --> 01:46:13.000
Yes, we are always. There are something more. We are in general to To movement, one movement that is of the sociological that we use the GP or something.

523
01:46:13.000 --> 01:46:22.000
Something near to that in order to put exactly the occupation are trying to see the past and the present.

524
01:46:22.000 --> 01:46:51.000
Another thing is the the incomes that we are very critical with their income because it's very difficult to measure the income of the father and in that sense the relative and the absolute mobility are mixed and you cannot divide a separate so this is the very good contribution of Erickson and Gulfer that divide 2 things that are one is structural and

525
01:46:51.000 --> 01:47:09.000
the other is relative mobility and when you have the income you cannot do this clearly separation then we also go in dialogue with the economies in this sense but we always read their work and we do the other for our party.

526
01:47:09.000 --> 01:47:35.000
We reindicate our work, but we always goes in dialogue with the economists because of course we have to understand why we have a a very different result and is Part of them is because of that.

527
01:47:35.000 --> 01:47:42.000
And for that reason, we are in a separate, but we read each other. Well, I think it, I don't know.

528
01:47:42.000 --> 01:47:48.000
Okay, thank you so much. It's time Thank you Christian and thank you.