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Administrator:  okay, so shall I do an introduction for you. I will introduce you, and then we will go from that. This first. Hi, everyone welcome to the this session on Cbc, one this session was organized by Andrew Mitchell. and he will basically share the session

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Administrator: as well, remotely but I will be here to help you if anything goes wrong technically.

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Administrator: So I knew I will give you the floor to go ahead. Okay, thank you very much, Fabio, and yes, good morning, everybody. So to those of you don't know me. My! As Fabio said. My name is Andrew Mitchell. I'm from the Uk. But I'm working at Kumata University in Japan.

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and I'll be yeah co-chairing today's session with Fabio Fabio being there in person. And today's session title is political crises in the 20 twenties that Socio cybernetics approach. So today we have 3 speakers. So the first speaker who's there in person is that Kan Iraq from the University of Huddersfield, in the Uk. He will be speaking about Europeanness and anti immigration movements in Turkey.

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Second Speaker, who is also joining us via zoom. There he is, kind of phone from the University of Central Oklahoma and U.S.A. You will be speaking about religion and support for far right platforms through a comparison of Italy, Hungary, and for Netherlands.

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Andrew Mitchell: And finally, I shall be speaking as the last speaker about global crises in the 2020 s. Through aluminium observational framework.

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Andrew Mitchell: So even though we've started late, I think this session was meant to have 5 speakers initially. Unfortunately, 2 of them couldn't join us today, so I don't think time is going to be so much of an issue. So I propose that each speaker has about 20 min each to speak after each speaker. We'll have a question session for up to 10 min, and then, after each Speaker's presentation and question and answer session. We'll have an open floor for any remaining questions from the audience or for speakers to ask each other.

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Andrew Mitchell: So yeah, without further ado. Let's begin today's session. So that, count, if you'd like to come to the podium, please, and make your presentation when you're ready.

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Administrator: So the only final thing. I will be time keeping as well, so I will, which you prefer.com. Shall I send you messages via the chat box when you have 5 min. Okay, so I'll do it. 5 min left, one minutes left for you. Alright. Thanks.

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Okay.

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Administrator: I think you've started. You can. You can see the presentation right, Andrew.

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Andrew Mitchell: No, we can't see anything go, we can see. Is the screen

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Administrator: like the zoom? and

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Administrator: I believe

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Administrator: all right? so hello! Everyone in person. I'm online. My name is Dr. Dahl on

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Administrator: I work at the University of Huddersfield. But originally I'm I'm from Turkey, and mostly I work

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Administrator: on the

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Administrator: I work on the political use of social media. And as you all know, I believe there's a huge refugee crisis that impacts Turkey as well more than many other countries, because since the beginning of the Syrian war, Syrian Civil war

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Administrator: Turkey has hosted more refugees than all other countries combined, and by the most optimistic estimates we have

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Administrator: at least 3 million Syrian asylum seekers

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Administrator: in turkey. And obviously it's a it's a big social trauma for people in Turkey so, and there is an anti immigration movement unfortunately,

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Administrator: in on the rise. And

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Administrator: it's mostly visible on social media. I mostly work on social network analysis. So I use this particular method to detect some, some clusters of anti immigration movement. And also I am

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Administrator: still workshopping a. A and a new approach to social network analysis which is keyword mapping.

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Administrator: So we will discuss

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Administrator: the methodological issues about social network analysis. It has been, increasingly used in in in social sciences. But still it's it's an emerging method. And there are some questions about

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Administrator: it's mathematical, and it's relationship with the meaning of the messages. Because originally it's it. It. It just counts and and

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Administrator: processes interactions without taking it's meaning postable negative direction into account. So I will. I will briefly address how I

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Administrator: I tried to tackle that issue

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Administrator: so the The title is Identitarianism

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Administrator: A against itself, and in spite of itself, Europeanness and anti immigration moment in Turkey. European is what I mean by European is, actually, we could have

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Administrator: actually use whiteness for that. So it's it's a very It's a very complicated issue, and I'm aware that not. Most of you are

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Administrator: very interested in in terms of sociology, so I don't want to do. I don't I? I don't want to. make a confusing presentation on this already complicated society. So.

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Administrator: but it will require some context. So please bear with me.

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Administrator: So let's start with what we mean by identitarianism. It's it's an ideology. It's a. It's a new social movement that has been on the rise, especially since the 2,008 economic crisis in Europe. Basically

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Administrator: it defense the argument that Europe is for people who were born in Europe and who

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Administrator: who has the European culture. And with our codes.

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Administrator: So basically, it's our nativist, far right ideology. And especially it's on the rise in France, where it was. It was born in the Netherlands. Panel looks countries a little bit. The German speaking countries.

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Administrator: obviously, it's quite interesting

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Administrator: to see some of its arguments being advocated in Turkey, because the original European identitarianism is mostly against Turkish immigrants. So Turkish immigrants, they are one of the largest immigrant groups in Europe, so basically in those areas, especially where Identitarianism is quite popular.

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Administrator: one of the biggest groups, one of the biggest protagonists for this. These groups are actually Turks people. So

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Administrator: you might say, how is it possible that some Turkish people they advocate the same same arguments when it comes to Syrian asylum seekers.

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Administrator: And the main theory, identitarianism, the main conspiracy theory. There they, they, they rely on is the great replacement

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Administrator: theory. It's it's It's it's basically a policy which dictates that white people are

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Administrator: being replaced systematically by people who migrates to Europe

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Administrator: from no European countries. So they are being good place, and it's not only in Europe, but the great replacement policy is quite popular in the Us. And some of the Western countries as well.

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Administrator: So obviously, when we put the great replacement in church context, we can say that

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Administrator: those who advocate these views, they believe that Turks will be eventually right? replaced by by people migrating from Syria and other Eastern countries.

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Administrator: And what I want to give you as a context information is why, why they are so afraid of people coming from Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and other Eastern countries Eastern to Turkey. So it's I I won't read

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Administrator: all of these. we have a ring video recording, anyway. So you can pose and have a look later. I don't want this to become a studies lecture, but I can tell you that

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Administrator: is.

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Administrator: it's some sort of

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Administrator: process which

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Administrator: redefined Turkey as a European nation

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Administrator: for 2 reasons, actually one of them

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Administrator: to to to stay away from the ultimate past and recreate itself as a newly start up nation, which is a very fashionable term right now, and and to to have a

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Administrator: confidence boost that national unity over this new conception. But the other, and probably more important reason, is, when Turkish Republic was founded in 1923.

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Administrator: The European

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Administrator: are the European neighbours of Turkey, the Balkans, namely, they were

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Administrator: stabilized. on the other hand.

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Administrator: relatively on the other end, the Middle East was still on their partition battles between 2 Imperialist powers, one of them being Britain, the other one being France. When you take a look at the Saudi of Turkey, you will see Syria and Iraq. One of them was a British protector. Then the other one was the French, and if Turkey

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Administrator: defined itself, had defined itself as an Middle Eastern region country.

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Administrator: it could have become part of those partition wars, and

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Administrator: actually that was all. Turkish independence was was about with the Treaty of Los Angeles.

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Administrator: Turkey was recognized as a sovereign nation.

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Administrator: but still it was a very fragile nation, and there were Imperialist big powers just circling around it. And also there are the straights issues which makes Turkey a very important strategic, just strategic country. So basically, they wanted a safe harbor. So they

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Administrator: tried to integrate themselves. They they found their so the modern turkey to the west.

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Administrator: So yeah, this is basically the summary of what

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Administrator: I

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Administrator: say. And Turks were. Also, it wasn't one-sided because Turks were considered to be an

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Administrator: nation which wasn't, I mean, ethnic group, which wasn't too far from truth, because serves originated from Middle Asia, but a thousand years ago, almost so and they had

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Administrator: quite a lot of relationships, cultural relationships with Europe. So actually, it wasn't a far fixed idea to consider themselves as Europeans. of this day I was born Istanbul. Constantinople was one of the Roman capital, so obviously we we? We were part of the European heritage. So

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Administrator: it wasn't a very far-faced idea, but it wasn't very convincing.

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Administrator: We of the Turkish European counterparts. so

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Administrator:  that that it's a 2 way conflict. And it's still the same because of religious cultural differences.

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Administrator: It's it's still under discussion. If Turkey is really European, or is is it Middle East or something in between? If you ask me, it's something in between. And it will always be because basically it's a. It's a passage between 2 regions.

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Administrator: So. but

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Administrator: in the early twenties Turkey was adamant to

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Administrator: to its Europeanness. It's whiteness

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Administrator: to the European counterparts. So they actually invented to hypotheses, to prove their their claims. One of them

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Administrator: is the sound language theory which dictates that all languages come from one language, and it was a prototype language.

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Administrator: Well, the other one was the Turks history theory, which is, quite surprisingly, even more far right than the other, because it dictated that you can see the map. There was a lost continent called Move, where by Turkish people originated from and that was a great ugly empire which

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Administrator: also

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Administrator: encapsulated some of the European continents. So

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Administrator: basically, almost all Asia and most of Europe was Turkish.

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Administrator: And so it was. It was. I mean it's ridiculous. And then Turkey mostly. But this

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Administrator: whiteness claim continues.

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Administrator: and Turkish identity, I mean it. That's the part you really need to pay attention to

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Administrator: Turkish identity is not based on what we are. It's based on what we are not. It's

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Administrator: about because we cannot define Turks because it's such a complicated issue. We have ethnic diversity, religious diversity and conflicts in between

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Administrator: cultural differences. It's a very big country and different regions. They have their own culture. They have their own influences. So

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Administrator: instead. Turkish identity is based on what we are not and what we are not was we weren't Eastern. We weren't non-white. We were in the Arabic.

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Administrator: Not everybody in Turkey is convinced

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Administrator: by this idea, but especially a certain population. Certain demographics, namely, urban, secular, well educated

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Administrator: people.

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Administrator: They are quite sold this idea because they they believe they belong to the West.

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Administrator: So the Syrian board was a big shop for these people, because suddenly there were at least 3 million of Arabic speakers in in Turkey, and it was

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Administrator: their their claim of being no Middle Eastern was quite

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Administrator: challenged.

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Administrator: So there were for you when I when I observe people's reactions, what I see is they are mostly troubled by the Arabic banners and shop windows, etc. Because they feel like it would

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Administrator: show Turkey to the West as a Middle Eastern nation. So it's it's mostly about the image.

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Administrator: but not only image because it's a very politicized issue, obviously, and by the by the autocratic President Erdogan, who is an Islamist. It's it's an instrumentalized weaponized issue. So

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Administrator: it's it's it's kind of a hot political debate.

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Administrator: So I will talk to you about my research. So obviously, the context took a lot of time, as I expected. But I will be very

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Administrator: where we're. We're rapid on giving you the details. So there is this Youtube series called the Csis is still. That means silent invasion. And it's all based on the replacement theory. So it's based on the premise that

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Administrator: Syrians eventually became the majority in Turkey. Their political party became the ruling party, and they banned Turkish language, and they forced Turks to work in menial labor. So

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Administrator: it's it's it's a very crystallized version of the placement here.

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Administrator: The first episode of this show on Youtube

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Administrator: received 5 million weavers, and the whole series received 9 million members, which is, which is quite a quite a high number.

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Administrator: and it's received the hashtag. This is still. I received more than 3,000 300,000

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Administrator: mentioned. So I looked at those I looked at. those messages to see what other hashtags

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Administrator: this hashtag is connected to, and also.

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Administrator: what are the main word call locations using those messages? And actually, they, the the findings are quite interesting. I was hoping to show you

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Administrator: a little bit of this show, but I decided not to, because it's it's really far too racist. And there's also the theme of sexual assault by a new one, seconds minus, etc.

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Administrator: So just leave it on your discretion. The third episode has English subtitles.

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Administrator: So I will skip that. So obviously

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Administrator: a social network. Analysis of this scale is unfortunately very difficult to

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Administrator: show in a conference like that, especially when you have to upload your presenting your presentation to a central management system but I will try to give you the the the gist of it. So that's the

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Administrator: that's the whole hashtag map, and that's

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Administrator: the bottom right, Gloucester, which contains the political hashtags. So I concentrated on that one.

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Administrator: So these are the prominence

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Administrator: and relevant hashtags in that cluster. I don't want refugees in my country. Say no to the silent occupation occupier, not asylum seeker, and it's quite interesting that they use occupy the the word occupy, because

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Administrator: basically, if there was a colonial relationship between 2 countries, it was Turks who invaded the those regions that even today, in the Civil War. Turkey is still occupying a part of Northern Syria. So

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Administrator: yeah, it does. It doesn't make sense. It doesn't really make sense at all. But

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Administrator: that's the way this. That's the way how they feel. I'm not racist. I'm a patriots.

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Administrator: and also there is another hashtag

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Administrator: which says so. What if I'm a racist.

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Administrator: then there's there's a confusion there. We are not going to be Arabised, which is quite direct to the directly connected to the replacement theory, no place. Here's work, and there is also the power part which is the newly mode. Ukip, like

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Administrator: far right party, which had a huge King maker role in the Presidential election. So

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Administrator: this one, I believe it's more interesting than than the hashtag map. I'm not saying that's because it's it's my

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Administrator: kind of, but also it gives more

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Administrator: about the meaning. So these are the world locations. In those 300,000

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Administrator: messages I detected 5 clusters, main clusters

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Administrator: popularly shared and People revolve around those words. Obviously I cannot translate all of them, but there are some meanings that we could. I could reconstruct out of those words

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Administrator: one of them says, hold the referendum to to the ports all the refugees. The other one says

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Administrator: the Arab culture is not the Islamic culture. So we shouldn't let

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Administrator: done thing

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Administrator: it is, and there is also an anti west and twist

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Administrator: there, and it's quite It's quite difficult to understand for an outsider. Because. yeah, these people are pro-western, but also antiques. And there's a lot of nature relationship going on there. That's not subject of this presentation

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Administrator:  the other cluster is, you will go.

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Administrator: And the fourth one is

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Administrator: openly saying, it's not racism to say our upstairs destroy our culture. Well, it is racism, and the fifth one is all about rumors, some real estate agents. They don't give apartments to terms in in some districts. So Istanbul. These are now no those zones for charge, etc., they said. The very similar claims that

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Administrator: actually you kept on Brexiteers many 4 perks

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Administrator: before the. So I will conclude.

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Administrator: I know that I used up my time, but please bear with me. So

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Administrator: the great replacement theory is

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Administrator: popular among some secular urban pros and Turks.

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Administrator: because and there is no cognitive distance in between, because they consider themselves as as white as the Europeans.

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Administrator: so.

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Administrator: and identitarian a German I then, and the Turkish I don't star in, even though they don't call themselves.

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Administrator: They feel the same ownership of Europe.

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Administrator: so one does not qualify to as Europeans, and the other one does not qualify series

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Administrator: as people who belong to the European culture. So there is no. it's just a matter of definition and self identifying.

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Administrator: well, silent invasion, self occupation. This type of designations, I always say references to the great replacement theory. Well, the current political atmosphere in Turkey amplified these sentiments, and also the economic crisis But there was always an anti Arab sentiment in Turkey. Because of this

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Administrator: we are what we are not. I identification So it's it's not just

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Administrator: connected to this fringe party.

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Administrator: It. You can find this sentiment in many

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Administrator: many different political fractions.

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Administrator: So that there are some remarks about limitations, I believe that might be some questions about it. So I'm not going to

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Administrator: over. Say my welcome. So if you have questions about the methodology, I'll be glad to answer them. Thank you.

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Administrator: Hi, there.

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Andrew Mitchell: okay, Dahan, thank you very much for your presentation.

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Administrator: So, Fabio, are there any questions in the room for Dahan?

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Administrator: Let me check  any questions

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Administrator: that it seems so.

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Administrator: Yeah, I I I have so many questions, but I will said it for later, when we

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Andrew Mitchell: okay. So in we have itecdote. if you'd like to ask you a question.

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Andrew Mitchell: So from Zoom, if you want to ask you a question, it picked in there, and please feel free.

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Administrator:  I think it is mute.

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Andrew Mitchell: Yeah, Newton. No camera. Okay? Well, let me ask you a quick question whilst it's not letting among you. Okay? So whilst it pick, how's that problem? So one thing. So first of all, thank you very much for your presentation. It's very interesting to hear about something like the great replacement theory, which I thought was a ex What's the word just within Europe? And the Us. Just with white populations, has for

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Andrew Mitchell: unfortunately, now spread to a turkey and other regions. So I think one of the so this isn't my area of research. But I think one of the things that underpins the great great replacement theory in, let's say, white Europe and White America is that the white population isn't having enough children.

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Andrew Mitchell: and therefore, like lower skilled. But let's say promiscuous like lesser people, will then eventually wash out the hard working white race and take over what we've built, I think is a very general way to put some of their theory. So we relies on the birth rate issue. So

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Administrator: I only how about in Turkey is the birth rate issue part of that? Or is it more just the fact of a number of refugees who've suddenly entered Turkey in the last few years?

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Administrator: It's a part of the discussion which existed before the refugee wave. because the national starts use this argument against the Kurdish minority.

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Administrator: They had a higher birth rate, and that was because the they culture in the big cities because of migration, it would be replaced. So the replacement theory and it's it's search version is actually, quite, quite, quite old. It started with

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Administrator: with the Kurdish migration to bigger cities, and nowadays I believe

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Administrator: the charts are to a certain extent of the hook because of the refugee wave, and also because they form the political representation, legal political representation, and the Church Parliament, and they actively collaborated with the secular Turkish opposition, but

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Administrator: still this should be taken with a pinch of salt, because when the opposition fails, and they often do.

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Administrator: the currents are to go to people to be blamed about it.

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Administrator: So there there are still. There is a bias, but the refugees are now in a in a worse spot.

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Andrew Mitchell: Okay, thank you very much.

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Andrew Mitchell: Okay. Ipec. can you? On mute now?

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Ipek Demir: I can. Now I had to log in and out. Sorry about that my settings were. Yeah, it was my fault. I really enjoyed the talk. Thank you very much. I'm keeping the camera off the to keep the bandwidth. Right?

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Ipek Demir: I I think the positioning of this in terms of great replacement theory. A vis of Europe given Turkey's a kind of fraught relationship with Europeanist and Westernness and and that kind of argument. I think it's really kind of interesting now. I

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Ipek Demir: I kind of. We often hear these sorts of things in in Turkey and like you. put the analysis out there as well.

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But what's kind of interesting is that this sort of discourse is not kind of on the fringes. So the great replacement theory in Europe.

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Ipek Demir: It's quite on the fringes and but in Turkey it's very a main stream. So if you can't say a little bit about that, what that means actually, in terms of kind of racist ideologies taking over the public sphere in Turkey, and it's both from secular and so-called Western and educated Turks. But it's also on the Islamic Islamist side. So

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Ipek Demir: so people would kind of pursue political Islam also develop and use such discourses. And the second thing is that.

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Ipek Demir: if you compare this to other countries, for example, Iran or in India, and so on. So idea about kind of white Indians, white Iranians vis the the the ideologies developed their V. They're unwanted others, I would say that they're also similarities. I wondered if you identified such things, maybe not in your research.

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Ipek Demir: but in the literature. And if you want to involve such a comparative perspective? Thank you very much.

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Administrator: 2 great questions from a great diaspora scholar, and we have chats about this before. So the first one is

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Administrator: well, basically the Turks people, they need to prove their whiteness

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Administrator: to towards Europe, whereas European people they don't have that sort of

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Administrator: necessity. So it's more mainstream because it's something which concerns many people. They don't want to be isolated from Europe. And to be honest This sort of inferiority complex was

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Administrator: quite minimal when Turkey became the official candidate for European Union. But it's skyrocketed after an Andre Markel and Nicolas Sarkozy took over in Europe and Europe moved towards a more anti Turkish stance.

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Administrator: So they don't want to be isolated from from Europe, from the Western world.

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Administrator: and the only way to establish this contact that they know

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Administrator: is to double down on being white, being all the same culture, not asking Europe to be more welcoming. And it it's a big issue. But it's not just an issue that concerns the Turks people. It's it. It should concern the European people as well European institutions as well.

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Administrator: the second one, obviously. And you know I'm not

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Administrator: an expert on Iran or India, so I don't want to to to to to cross any boundaries. but yeah, to a certain extent there should be, the manifestation of

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Administrator: this type of behavior. And to be on this. I'm not saying this as a researcher expert on these matters, but as a Uk resident.

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Administrator: Now in the Uk we have the most ethnically diverse government with, 2 people of color in

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Administrator: important positions, namely, Prime Minister Rishi, soon again the home of his Interior Minister. So the Roberman

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Administrator: and they are hardliners and on immigration, and they are. They sometimes give the impression that they are all compensating

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Administrator: as leaders in a very anti immigration

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Administrator: mainstream party. So

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Administrator: it's that should be, maybe. But without I mean, it's my Co. Personal commentary. As a Uk resident as a researcher.

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Administrator: Without data I cannot say anything.

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Administrator: It's just an observation. Thank you.

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Andrew Mitchell: Okay, thank you very much again for the answers. So I think we'll have to move on to the next speaker. But Dahan once again. Thank you very much for your presentation. And yeah, if there was any questions at the end, hopefully, we'll have a few minutes left to direct them towards Staff. Thank you very much.

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Andrew Mitchell: Okay. So our next speak Kevin Vaughan joining us from Oklahoma today. So yeah, kind of please. yeah, share your screen and begin when you're ready.

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Kenneth Vaughan: Absolutely. Thank you very much. And this should be easy. We practice beforehand and share.

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Kenneth Vaughan: Everyone sees my screen. All right.

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Kenneth Vaughan: Excellent! Thank you so much. Well, it's a privilege to be here. I'm gutted that I couldn't be there in person the research has been fascinating all week. And I've I've really enjoyed writing online. I think this is by far the best conference in sociology. and thank you to the organizers, and everybody who put up with me switching to zoom at the very last minute. So I had A. A. A grand fall through, so it wasn't able to come out

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Kenneth Vaughan: mit Ctl. And my name is Kenneth Bond. I'm an assistant professor of Sociology at the University of Central Oklahoma, although I'm on en route to Texas, Lutheran University in San Antonio. Again, where I'm originally from. So that's the platinum trophy of academia. Right? Is getting a job back home. So 250

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Kenneth Vaughan: the

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Kenneth Vaughan: my topic today is looking at support for far right parties and platforms. I'm looking at. Hungary, the Netherlands and Italy. I realized last night, by the way, so forgive me if I seem to be going through this a little bit quickly, that I had over like 50 slides, which I don't anymore. But it it took a while to cut it down, and I frankly didn't do it a a as much as I should have, so forgive me a fine Not covering everything and going through things quickly. I want to make sure I have time for the

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Kenneth Vaughan: Excuse me the findings. And and in fact, if I could just make one that real quick. Andrew, if you don't mind. If you could get me a notification at like 10 min to just so, I know if I'm still stuck here to kind of fast forward to the stats. That would be. I would appreciate that. But I'll watch my watch, too, in case you can. Okay. So anyway.

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Kenneth Vaughan: looking at the state of the field. when it comes to the the global state of affairs of religion and support for the far, right and various far right platforms results tend to be very mixed. they're inconsistent across studies they're inconsistent. But across studies countries as well, which anyone with it

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Kenneth Vaughan: who appreciates comparative research, what would actually expect to be the case? the United States situation is a little bit more focused on what? Evangelicals, unfortunately, but globally, it's a bit more diverse than that which leads to a very interesting research. but

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Kenneth Vaughan: there

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Kenneth Vaughan: the research that would anticipate a relationship between religion and the far right, particularly majority grip religion they would point to things like. where religion, religious groups, major churches have cited with authoritarian regimes. And we're, I'm specifically thinking of Europe here. generally speaking, church state relations. That's a common platform across far

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Kenneth Vaughan: far right pro parties, not universal but common. We found that or North and Inglehart have a published numerous studies where they look at both together and independently where they find that religiosity is positively associated with a lot of the platform issues that are associated with far right parties. And as sociologists, we're looking at

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Kenneth Vaughan: pluralization of a religious pluralization over time have noted that there may. There is at least some kind of innate, inherent tension attention between religiosity and liberal democracy. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean you become far right. But that is

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Kenneth Vaughan: one of the opposite positions of the far right and so there's at least something there

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Kenneth Vaughan: You have. On the other hand, a lot of research pointing in the opposite direction. Now, sociology in political science, they're not very prone to like meta-analysis, so I can't

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Kenneth Vaughan: give you precise numbers here. But if I were to evaluate the state of the field based on what I've been reading. And Tobias Kramer's. I think he's provided an excellent review of literature in his recent book with Cambridge University Press. It's got godless crusade which addresses this topic as well. It seems that probably the state of the field can. It consolidates around a religious identity, having a mixed positive relationship with

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Kenneth Vaughan: with far right platforms, meaning that identifying with a majority group religion tends to be associated with increased odds of voting for far right parties. It's not always true. That's why I say mixed positive, but it it tends to lean, lean in that direction, while religious practice, on the other hand, I would say, seems to have a mixed negative relationship. where? you. You identify with the majority religion, and you tend to

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Kenneth Vaughan: kind of side with majority and national health policies and things like that. But religious practice might tap you into traditions that encourage things like liberal democracy, or care for the stranger. Care for refugees. this is, I'm going to talk in another presentation tomorrow about this idea of the primordial refugee which seems to exist in every religion. and so that's kind of where the field is right now, even in something like that, Kerry and Whiteheads Christian nationalism research. If you kind of dig into the

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Kenneth Vaughan: tables, you see, okay, evangelical religiosity actually doesn't necessarily go on the same rain a direction as Christian nationalism. And I found this in some of my own research in the past as well, where? I'll initially find yeah. Catholics, Protestants orthodox have higher rates of nativism, higher rates of Euroscepticism or voting rates for far right party. But when you interact that by frequency of religious attendance or prayer it goes down even sometimes

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Kenneth Vaughan: below the unaffiliated recent case studies a tend to kind of go in and support this idea. Right? We're looking at certain far right movements in in Germany Christians have been actually under represented Kramer's original research finds evidence of marginalization within the Afd. there's some other interesting research on where in certain countries, Christians

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Kenneth Vaughan: well, actually, when the Christian Democratic parties fall apart, they'll just start, fill defect to greens. And it was anticipated like, Oh, well, gosh!

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Kenneth Vaughan: You know the Christian Democratic party isn't here The only other person talking about religion, state relations is the far right party. And so that's where it was expected to go, but that expectation is sometimes not always, but sometimes violated historically, church attendance has been negatively associated with right wing Populist voting in France and Italy, although in both cases there's been a reversal which I'll I'll get into the Italian case later on. and so

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Kenneth Vaughan: yeah, you have the if the French case is cited here as well. and there's other cases that are kind of outside of this that I want in the interest of time. I won't talk about There's also kind of the other side of the coin, right? So like, What is religion there? And what a secularization do. And secularization. Excuse me, I would assess the field is

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Kenneth Vaughan: standard secularization projects. And we've talked a lot about multiple secularities at this conference already, but they They reach a kind of fork in the right right. You can take a path that would be very inclusive. That would be religiously indifferent. That would be very pluralistic or There's a talk of what's called like a sort of secularization. I've also seen recently in the literature, Secularist nativism, and a couple of other projects that would use kind of the looming majority status given secularization patterns in Europe, which I think are

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Kenneth Vaughan: mostly indisputable. that, yeah, it looks like, you know, a non-religious populations are

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Kenneth Vaughan: moving very quickly toward majority status in most countries, and some research has suggested that far right platforms have been useful for them to keep a new religious migrants out, namely, Muslim populations. I'll get a little bit more into that as well, but, generally speaking, when it goes in that direction, and I'm not saying it always does, or even usually does, but when it goes in that direction far right parties have been able to talk about, you know, secular project secular, so called progress, and so called modernization and juxtapose, that with

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with stereotypes of

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Kenneth Vaughan: Muslims coming in, and even actually Christians from poor countries as well. That hasn't been research as much, but there is, some work there, and in some cases it seems to be successful. In some Cape countries. Not all. But in some countries you. DC, an over representation of non religious populations in in a far right parties. just making sure I can see the chat. Okay, yeah,

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Kenneth Vaughan: generally, though I I would characterize the field as kind of neutral and mix right like, even when I'm you know, working with students and and and they want to kind of double down on I I'm I'm first a sociologist of religion, and before a political sociologist, and they always want to ask, Is religion good or bad? Or is secularization going to help us or hurt us? And I always say, if and when right like, what do you do with it? and I think that the research probably bears this out the most. I love this group by Jeffrey Alexander and his comments on a darrenity where he says, well, the anti-religious nature of

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Kenneth Vaughan: the modern world has a religious, base right like these, in the sociology, tells us that the nature of institutions is that they persist. I found in the past a null results and actually relative puritate between religious groups and the not unaffiliated in terms of like their attitudes toward migrants and refugees. And I'm certainly not alone there. most far right party. Not many far right parties are divided on social issues,

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Kenneth Vaughan: being Kramer, and among others have talked about and documented, infighting within a far right grips, for many of them will have, like a neo-pagan camp, an atheist camp, an evangelical camp, a Roman Catholic camp, and it'll kind of pull on opposite in in many different directions here and in some cases just the research empirically shows us right? There's no, there's often no clear effects of religiosity or or of

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Kenneth Vaughan: yeah, or secularization. and in in many cases it switches right? Like it. It's like the the French case at the end where you have the theabolization. Ca, a campaign, and it seems like before

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Kenneth Vaughan: F and A, and we're we're pulling well from a secular crowd. But that actually seems to be reversing, and they're doing better with with Roman Catholics.

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Kenneth Vaughan: Another important element, that kind of adds this ambiguous element to it is this idea of like secularization or disenchantment within religious, within religious groups. I have an an image here for the United States of a pastor summit. which is this got a lot of attention, because virtually none of these people are pastors, but they're all conservative culture warriors, and one of them at least one of them is an atheist who actually started his public campaign as like an anti theist like, religion is bad for us. Religion.

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Kenneth Vaughan: It's it's evil, and he's never really repudiated that. And he's at a so-called Pastor Summit. Right like that. I don't. I think it visualizes the the phenomenon of like secularization within the religion, and we seen this in the work of Rogers Brew, baker, of Philip Gorsky, of Samuel's group of Paul Froze, one of my mentors, were they? they're there's an over. I'm sure we're all aware, there's kind of an overrepresentation of us evangelical, white Christian nationalism in this body of literature. But some of the more recent work in this area has shown, like, okay, like, there is like a

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Kenneth Vaughan: strong religiosity component. Right? It's it's very. It's it's most common among evangelicals. And it's most common among evangelicals who attend church even more. But Taking a one

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Kenneth Vaughan: like kind of comparative historical approach. You know Gorsky has talked about secular forces that may influence that

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Kenneth Vaughan: it's group and frozen, and others they look at up. Okay. But what absolutely mobile mobilizes the far right vote. And they break that down by a religious service attendance and find that it's actually at the lower practicing end, where it's mobilizing, not supporting. But I'll talk about the difference there, because I I replicate that in this study? and there's a lot of research suggesting that, like, okay, the the appeals to religion, the appeals the presentation of religious symbols that

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Kenneth Vaughan: Kramer grizzanella booze Norton, a a number of us scholars will actually treat that as an inherently secularizing or disenchanting. for

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Kenneth Vaughan: now I think I I would be remiss if I didn't. Kind of 0 in on the specifics here. I think religion, the effective religion on the far right, and the religion on the far right and hungry is

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Kenneth Vaughan: probably one of the most clearest cases just what the the cross that's the voting patterns we've seen over the years. That is where he doesn't. Yobak are drawing the majority of the support from. And yeah, most research says, what would tell you that it's very difficult to disentangle

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Kenneth Vaughan: the the relationship of the churches and between the churches and the far right. And the authoritarian governments, even before, like the era of fides and yoga. Now some would kind of push back on that and talk about. okay, thank you. we'd talk about kind of like secularizing forces within. But

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Kenneth Vaughan: I I yeah, I think the evidence is is rather clear that there, there, there is something going on. I religiously here notified of time. So I'm going to go this a little bit quick more quickly, and if we can discuss some of the precision afterwards. Summarizing all of this, I think again, the connection between religion and the far right platforms are are mostly clear in Italy. There are some caveats in the literature, but there is. there's a robust, complicated history there. And it it's criminal to do it to

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Kenneth Vaughan: gloss over that. But I I I side with the expectation that religion will bolster support for the far right here, and the Netherlands it it. It often goes in the opposite direction where a lot of it's leaders are secular, and I think it brought up the yeah. I brought up new atheism earlier. We're even on kind of she. She's not in in the same parties, but like someone like I in Harshi. Ali has gone over there and supported some of the Fielders campaigns. I'll get to get in the same party.

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Kenneth Vaughan: but a T re, both all but that has a you called Christianity like a religion for losers. And so there's this general expectation there, and also the Netherlands has kind of an interesting history with religious pluralism and and immigration not to

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Kenneth Vaughan: whitewash, you know human rights abuses and things like that. But like the United States. it. It might be a little bit easier in the Netherlands for somebody to tap into a rhetorical narrative. Right it, like nation of immigrants, religious freedom and things like that. It, I compare it very much. The United States we we can do that.

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Kenneth Vaughan: The good thing to talk about, although we should also remember our history. anyway, I'm working with the world value Survey European value study integrated data set. We look at Netherlands in the 20 in 2,017, Hungary in 2,018, Italy and 20 18 I cross-reference. I I know that some of these party affiliations can be disputed. So I cross-reference the list with Populist Chapel, the Expert Survey global party survey and universally agreed upon that at the year of study. All these parties had far right affiliation labeling by these expert surveys

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Kenneth Vaughan: mit Ctl, and though I know there are some debates in the literature sometime Sometimes I looked at kind of standard religiosity indicators, and for some of the platform issues I looked at anti immigrant sentiment, Euroscepticism, liberal interpretation of a democracy and authoritarian political preferences? 150.

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Kenneth Vaughan: So what am I saying here? so I'm looking at hungry first, or this should be labeled. But I saw that. yeah, there there is. There doesn't appear to be a a relationship between religion and Some of the platform issues in Hungary pretty much as expected. Protestants are more Eurosceptic than non-catholic to more Eurosceptic than non Protestants. In in Catholics they become

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Kenneth Vaughan: they become more eurosceptic at higher levels of religiosity. So there's not that in that us, a previously stated buffering effect. for nativism. there isn't the major effect for religion, which is interesting but and actually,

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Kenneth Vaughan: Protestants become less nativist at higher rates of of religious service attendance, which is really the only liberalizing effect that we see in the Hungarian case. you do have a kind of a when I look at the Liberal Democracy Index Liberal interpretations of democracy and authoritarian scale. authoritarian preferences scale. That's in the Wvs. I find kind of a

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Kenneth Vaughan: a contradiction, that right? And this is what Rebecca and others have called the Democratic, not Liberal, I think. I I see that world view coming out among Protestants and Catholics and Hungary. Some of the results. I'll just gonna go over that quickly, though. similar product

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Kenneth Vaughan: observations with Fidez right. A Protestant affiliation is positively associated with support for this party. frequency of religious service, attendances as well as well as of confidence in churches only minor exception there is that does seem to increase when you interact that with a Catholic affiliation. Ca, yeah, and say that twice. Forgive me.

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Kenneth Vaughan: let me, and these are the major finders. Let me go go across some of the tables.

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Kenneth Vaughan: One of the things I I noticed that I thought was really interesting.

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Kenneth Vaughan: 5 min. Okay, cool. I can deal with that. Thank you so much. is that?

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Kenneth Vaughan: Now, this is not to say that religious service attendance is negatively associated with anti immigrant sentiment, or with support for a fee desk. That

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Kenneth Vaughan: that was, that is, a criminal misunderstanding of a previous paper that uses a similar method. So I want to be clear here. What we're talking about is what is mobilizing. Right? So if you look at the first set of bars here that for the never attenders the more kind of hostile toward migrants you could go the relations you become clearly more likely to support the feed as party. This, is likewise true for the occasional attendees, but

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Kenneth Vaughan: for the regular attendees you'll notice that the support for free des is actually higher at the lowest levels of nativism. This does not tell us that religious people are turning against Fidaz, or that they're becoming less nativist. But it's telling us that nativism is less of a mobilizing factor for the most frequent attendees. There's an interpretation issue that I'll get to at the end of this. find a similar pattern for euroscepticism.

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Kenneth Vaughan: so it's just going through these quickly, because I have 5 min left as similar the the. The findings were a a a bit muted for yovich, which may be due to sample issues in the Netherlands. kind of found what I was expecting there.

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Kenneth Vaughan: confidence in it in churches is, associate negatively associated with your skepticism, frequency of prayer reduces Euroscepticism for Catholic and Protestant. So the that's an interactive effect there. religious minority. Affiliation unsurprisingly, is associated with decreased rates of nativism. Namely, because they are the people who are often the most targeted by nativism. and we find that attendance with a group affiliation, I think that dropped off. But with

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Kenneth Vaughan: Protestant Catholic group affiliation they become kind of more tolerant of migrants as they become more religious in terms of Pdd support. Kind of exactly we're talking about. I don't know why I'm both of these cases cut off the the names. but anyway, Protestant affiliation. associated. It is negatively associated with Pdd. Supports. So Protestants are less likely to support you. Real this party than Pvd. Compared to nuns, and this is increasingly true as

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Kenneth Vaughan: they become more religious. We also find that nativism is one of the most important factors and motivating support for the Ptv. And you kind of have these similar observations earlier. that it becomes even less mobilizing, although it's not as much of an issue there, because the relationship isn't positive for positive for Protestants or Catholics or attendors to begin with. similar findings for Fdb Fd results here.

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Kenneth Vaughan: So is a visualization here again, you'll you'll note on the bar right that support for these parties. at among them, among regular attenders here is already really low, right? Like, for at most groups, it's like, under, you know, 10% here.

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Kenneth Vaughan: finally going to Italy again. Sorry for doing this so quickly. But I want you essentially, I I find that religiosity is positively associated with votes for sorry I'm a skip ahead for some of the pro at platform issues. Right? Protestants are more Eurosceptic. And there's some. There's some good research that suggest that Liga has done a good job of tying euroscepticism to the demographic anxiety and the replacement theory actually, that we just heard about. So that

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Kenneth Vaughan: that fits the literature very well, right, I I would propose. That's why, some of the religious groups are more eurosceptic because of the proxy for for nativism, which reveals somewhat similar effects here. unfortunately, I don't have brotherhood votes. I guess it's nice to go back into a period in time where they want as popular. But let's keep in mind that this is around 2,018, right? So we don't have.

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Kenneth Vaughan: I I ran models on that. But but the the sample was very small. It was before there kind of more popular explosion here. But again, I I find that a Catholics are more supportive of Liga than the UN affiliated. negative effects for confidence in churches.

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Kenneth Vaughan: okay, so much negative effect for confidence in churches, and no significant differences at different levels of religiosity. So in Italy we do see a kind of a clear religion effect. But it's not as robust. I deleted some of the graphs in the interest of time. But it's not. It's not as robust, and I think

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Kenneth Vaughan: going back into the literature like where support for the far right comes from, and like even the kind of the labeling of the new far right tends to tap into new cleavage issues, and one of the contributors to that is secularization itself. Now, I'm not convinced that Italy is an exception to secularization theory. There's been good research published on that in the last year or so in the the review of religious research, but it appears to have secularized a bit more slowly compared to other European nations. So I I was anticipating that

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Kenneth Vaughan: there would either be no gap or a small gap, and that's mostly what we've seen here.

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Kenneth Vaughan: So again, I know I've gone through this very quickly. If I need to revisit this play anything in the past. But the earlier slides, please let me know.

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Kenneth Vaughan: Here's what I say, right? General patterns are not consistent across country. So I think this is important to what to reflect upon for a moment, because a lot of the most important works in this area. publish these kind of vast across national analyses. Now, I think there's a time and a place for that I'm I'm doing the same thing tomorrow, just looking at anti immigrant sentiment. But When we look at these platform issues, and when we look at

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Kenneth Vaughan: party votes. And you have like, one binary, far, right vote. And these part variable, for you know, 30 something countries there, there's a you're looking at global averages, and that is useful information. But when you 0 into countries so far, right now, 3 are going to look the same.

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Kenneth Vaughan: I see consistent, fairly consistent religious patterns in Hungary, I see, fairly consistent, although moderate, a religious patterns in Italy. On the other hand, I see things going in the mostly the opposite direction in the Netherlands, as expected, right in a cross national study that would all kind of get lumped in together in terms of the identity versus practice debate, I see, makes results here. although what I see does tend to go in that direction.

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Kenneth Vaughan: In Hungary and in Italy there were clear religious effects, but every now and again practice either frequency of prayer, confidence in in churches, or

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Kenneth Vaughan: religious service attendance attendance would buffer against that relationship. Now it would exacerbate it to right in the Netherlands. That effect is very clear, though, that it's Religious people seem to be the most resistant to some of these far right movements, and they are the most resistant at higher levels of religiosity. I think we should spend more time talking about confidence in churches that has actually been a very consistent finding in in some of it, and I have some other results that I want to time to get into. But I I see that

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Kenneth Vaughan: theorized on less frequently. But there's a lot there.

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Kenneth Vaughan: I support a low support mobilization among the faithful. So again, In Hungary and in Italy, it is the most religious who are supporting the far right and their pat platforms. And yet one

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Kenneth Vaughan: attendance, and being a religious, doesn't seem to mobilize that bridge from I want. I am anti immigrant, and I support Liga, and and that is why stroke froze brave, or others in the past have made arguments. This is about secularization within the religion. I don't have time to go over. Why, I'm not so convinced I'm open to it. These are. These people are all smarter than me. but

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Kenneth Vaughan: I might think there might be just a. A. An additional cause here that we need to explore, and maybe that'll come out in Q&A. Q. A. What about? Finally, I want to ask, what about refugees? Right? We're talking about immigrants in in general. In the past I seen a a a much stronger kind of progressive religious effect. When the questions and the this was in the European Social Survey, I published a paper on this in 2,021 asked about refugees right like these needs

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Kenneth Vaughan: these, when you look at this, and when you look at changing results over time that it seems like year by year, serve by a survey way, by way, the the results always change we should keep contacts into in in in mind as well. So just like I'm looking at a place we should also, look at time.

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Kenneth Vaughan: All right. thank you. Everyone for your attention. have a well, I'll be here to answer questions. I guess we're gonna do that. Are we gonna do that right after or at the end, or both. yeah. So I think, having them at the end. Now, it depends how much time after your Q. A. And my presentation. My Q. A. But yeah, we still have. Let's say, 6, 7 min left for kind of any questions to kind of. But yeah, thank you very much, anyway, for your presentation.

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Andrew Mitchell: So okay, itpeck straight away. would you like to ask you a question?

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Ipek Demir: Yes, and I have my audio working? thank you very much. you presented kind of a a mixed picture within Europe. I understand, but I just wanted to kind of add in the the British bit that really, Josh City was also associated with Brexit. So in Brexit surveys

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Ipek Demir: and surveys, I had proportion of those who voted for Brexit define themselves as Christian, yet we know from kind of statistics, and so on. That actually, church attendance is very low, and those who define themselves as a eighties, and so on, is very high in the Uk, and that that it actually acted as a proxy for

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Ipek Demir: sometimes access a proxy for whiteness was something that was kind of discussed, but I wanted to bring in the perspective that the reason it acts for a proxy for whiteness is due to Islamophobia or anti Muslim racism. So these are kind of the main drivers

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Ipek Demir: in people's kind of setting themselves as Christian. let's say, when, in fact. yeah. So they are using that as a proxy for whiteness, and in France and Netherlands, however, due to a a stronger secular tradition. Perhaps then it might be not as close associated, perhaps. Yeah. So I kind of wondered if you looked at the Uk case and

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Ipek Demir: and this sort of proxy for Islamophobia and anti-muslim racism itself, also driving. it. anti-muslim racism.

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Ipek Demir: in general. Thank you.

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Kenneth Vaughan: Yeah. Thanks for that. yeah. To just overall totally concur. I I I went through things very quickly, as I as I said, but at the top of one of my slides I think I had like

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Kenneth Vaughan: one bullet point with 10 citations that I think Islamophobia is absolutely key to all of this, and I think it's both a source for Christian, far right support and a secular far right support. yeah. I was fascinated by the by the Brexit case. I had done some research and then got scooped So you got. Someone published the same results kind of before me, and I think it's probably what you're talking about, and I kind of find the same thing. And yeah, I I think we do things rather similarly. So, thanks for that.

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Administrator: We have a couple of questions from the.

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Andrew Mitchell: I think it would be easy for a Kenneth on for me afterwards as well. If there's any questions. If, to speak to the podium.

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Administrator: I can it nice to see you? I don't know. Basically. yeah, pretty work. And very interesting. And

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Administrator: yeah, so so sorry I I missed part of your presentation, my, my mom's calling me. And you mentioned the data you use chess data. I kind of like me stand. And I this, could you elaborate like, How how did you make use of that?

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Kenneth Vaughan: Yeah. So yeah, sorry. So I didn't really makes it into the analysis. I was just pointing out that for some of the the party affiliations, because some of the parties, particularly. pv, although this is less common now. But there's been like debate in the literature, if they should qualify as a far right party or not.

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Kenneth Vaughan: namely, people would cite like comments that at least kind of gestured, I would say cynically, but gesture toward like gender equality and sexual liberation which I was, was always leveraged against Muslims. But there was debate. So I was just pointing out that, like in all of these expert surveys at the time of the Survey, Pvd. And Fpd. etc., we're all qualified as far right. But I didn't actually work it into any statistical analyses.

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Administrator: Yeah, I I my I have a suggestion that like you can, you can make better use of this data combining the individual and party level data like, you know, like conditional condition or larger models. That is

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Kenneth Vaughan: like more than one's version of lot, the multinomial model that

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Administrator: you can model like

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Administrator: how how people will vote for like the the likelihood they will vote for each of these party conditional on.

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Administrator: for example, the the platform. Because I think you have nice cases here that these countries has more than one power, right movement, so, but somewhat state. They should have different platforms, and especially regarding, like migration, the the role of Christianity in in in the political discourse, and even like you, integration. And you can. yeah, navigate that into into the analysis.

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Administrator: And we, which I I think is a is a like, make the most of the use of the data.

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Kenneth Vaughan: Yeah, I totally agree. I I took an approach. I didn't use those particular data sets just because I knew who the parties already were. But I took that approach for Hungary and the Netherlands especially, because there's a there's an argument in the literature that a lot of this is dependent upon the existence of a healthy Christian Democratic party, which is an important story in the Italian case, for example, in the changes that have happened there right? And so the argument tends to go that

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Kenneth Vaughan: that Christians will be more attracted to a far right party when they're on. They're the only kind of religion state language. We're at rhetorical option that's there. But if there's a healthy Christian Democratic party like Germany, for example, then you know, the Afd and etc. are largely You find Christians to be really largely useless right like

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Kenneth Vaughan: that's at least an argument we're testing. I'm not sure if I how much I buy into it. But yeah, I had that in mind. I ran the multinomial regressions that you were talking about. and I just haven't had time to analyze them as much. But I'm glad that we we share that intuition there. Thank you so much.

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Administrator: Thank you.

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Andrew Mitchell: Okay, thank you very much. I think we have time for one more question from the audience, and then we'll have to move to the next speaker.

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Administrator: Yeah. Hi, Kenneth.

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Administrator: you can see me, I guess. Yeah. thanks for the very interesting talk I have. I have a question I have question about where?

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Administrator: Loosely connected to what Ipe said. So Bearing in mind that

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Administrator: most of the far right Populist parties emerged or increased their popularity after the 2,008 crisis

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Administrator: Their organizational structure is very loose, and they depend on general public more than rank and file party members. So isn't it? isn't it?

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Administrator: understand the board? Would you agree that they are kind of

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Administrator: trying to keep up with the general tendencies all the party or the public, in order to become more mainstream because it's their strategy they are trying to insult to right into mainstream. So

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Administrator: do you? Would you agree with my With my assessment that

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Administrator: probably you got different results in Italy, and angry as opposed to the Netherlands, because the role of the religion within society is different in those countries, and you wouldn't be so popular if you a introduced yourself as a Dutch religious party

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Administrator: and as secular Italian party, for example. Thank you.

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Kenneth Vaughan: Yeah. Totally agree. Right? Like I I mean, I know the The Netherlands has such a party, right? And they're not going to. I think it's a limitation for them. and one of the important stories of League of success is kind of it. So the way people write about it in the past is that they had kind of gone back and forth with the relationship with Catholics, but they also had more secular influences. They also had more need of neo-pagan influences. They had more a very strong regionalist influences obviously right from the League of North to just league and part of their

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Kenneth Vaughan: and a Put Pr campaign was embracing religion right? Because it's Italy, and while I think Italy is secularizing, like anywhere else in in Europe, it is secularizing much more slowly than other places. That is just a wise strategy for being a mainstream party and Europe and I. I talked about the Dd. Bulletization campaign for the Rn. Right where they became.

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Kenneth Vaughan: when I say mainstream, I don't want to like legitimize the positions. But what I mean like, look, they were. What was it like? 40, you know, 40 to 60 or something, right in the last going up against Macron. It was that was tremendous growth in a in a relatively short period of time. yeah, I think the religious context is key here. And it's part of the impulse I had to say, Okay, look, I, I have this data set. I'm looking at

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Kenneth Vaughan: 40 countries at once, or whatever it is. Right. Let's let's go one by one, and and my long term goal here is to do these in sets of 2 or sets of 3, and then eventually revisit the kind of cross national analysis. And maybe that would be a book length project, because, if exact. So I'm a statistician. But I was trained by a comparative historical scholar. So I like to kind of straddle both worlds there. And yeah, I, I I I share your impulse completely, or you're at your your your intuition. I I think it's it's spot on.

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Administrator: All right. Thanks again.

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Andrew Mitchell: Okay, thank you very much for all the excellent questions and kind of thank you once again for your yeah. Excellent presentation.

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Andrew Mitchell: So now I'm feeling a little bit nervous, given to some presentations, very heavily data-driven, which have gone before me. however, I'll do my best to represent my more. A second order. Observation of some issues. I've been looking at recently in my presentation. So

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Andrew Mitchell: okay, not

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Andrew Mitchell: okay. That's not my right screen. 1 s.

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Andrew Mitchell: Okay, that looks like it's the correct screen.

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Andrew Mitchell:  okay.

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Andrew Mitchell: yes. Hello, everybody. So yeah. As I mentioned at the beginning of today's session, my name is Andrew Mitchell. So I'm from the Uk. But I live and work in a kuma motto work at, Come on to university. And today's presentation. I'd like to speak about global crises in the 2020 s. from a lumenium point of view.

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Andrew Mitchell: So my background to this research involving Lumen. So I'm interested, really, in now, crisis exposed underlining system operations. So I think it's very easy to be normative and liberal and apply these theories when everything's going well. However, these tend to not have a great deal of explanation power, in my opinion, when things start to go wrong. So

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Andrew Mitchell: I think about system operations, contradictions, and fragilities are exposed to the observer when we have crises. So, for example, some previous work I've done during my Phd research, I looked at the Fukushima disaster from a sociological point of view through Lumen's theory.

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Andrew Mitchell: I'm currently writing up a paper I presented out the last year's Rc. 51 conference about Japan's energy crisis from a low menu in perspective. for example, Japan's dependence on Russian gas, despite it claiming they will work with us sanctions due to the Ukraine Russian war.

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Andrew Mitchell: And today's presentation deals with just some preliminary research, some note taking. I've been doing and considering wherever I can like, really analyze some of the crises that I've seen a merge of the last few years from a Lumannian point of view, in a way that's worthwhile, academically speaking.

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Andrew Mitchell: so as a background to this. So the 20 twenties. In my opinion, I've seen the emergence of multiple crises which for the global impact which still resonates to this day. So most obvious example is the COVID-19 global type pandemic which really became a global pandemic in early 2,020

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Andrew Mitchell: global inflation caused in parts by vast global stimulus packages to save world economies in 2,020,

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and finally the outbreak of full scale war between Ukraine and Russia with NATO, and it's all like supporting Ukraine with

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Andrew Mitchell: the so called lethal aid, sanctioning Russia economically while making it clear to other powers. Any support of Russia will be met by strong sanctions and other measures. So I think this is a key point, whilst Ukraine and Russia is geographically isolated in terms of the conflict the sanctions, regimes and the threat of sanctions have made this a global crisis. And I'll speak about how it's affected. Other nations, such as India and Africa in slides to come.

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Andrew Mitchell: So first of all, let me start with a discussion on COVID-19 and black swans versus grey rhinos.

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Andrew Mitchell: so I don't know how familiar you and the audience are with these but box. One theory was made famous by in Nicholas Nasim Taleb in, I think, 2,007, 2,008 just before the great financial crisis

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Andrew Mitchell: took hold. And I think with some confusions about what a black one is. So the origin of saying, theplex one is Europeans bleed. All swans were right white. Every one we've ever saw in Europe was white until a Dutch explorer went to Australia and found a first

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Andrew Mitchell: black swam. So this was a surprise to Europeans, because Europeans for all those ones were white. But once a European Cecil is went to Australia. They realize that theory. That model of reality was completely incorrect.

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Andrew Mitchell: So Black Swan theory isn't that something nobody could ever predict happened is that it's unknowable to be observer. There's no way for the observer to find out about. Something like this will happen. So to give an example from a modern history. So the 9 11 attacks, or some have been large and certainly wasn't surprised. But planes hit the twin towers on 9, 11 in 2,001. What virtually everybody else was. There was no way for virtually anyone else to predict the 9 11 attacks.

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Andrew Mitchell: However, there's a number theory which is green popularity over the last few years, but of a gray rhinoceros. So the grey rhin, or unknown risks extreme left styled left side tail risks, so they've got a small chance of happening, but to be do happen, they can be catastrophic. So in the same way, in a pops the savannah, you can see a grey rhino in the distance clearly, but you don't know whether it's just going to continue eating or it's going to charge where you are.

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Andrew Mitchell: So everybody new pandemics could happen. for myself, I'm not a virologist or pandemic experts, but I think most people aware of the Spanish flu the black desk. I know there's such things. However, nobody knew about. It would happen in 2,020,

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Andrew Mitchell: so a pandemic is something but is predictable, but often ignored, due to its low frequency high low frequency threat.

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Andrew Mitchell: So a gray Rhy? No. What if I was going to apply Lumen's theory of risk danger implied decision makers In this case the political system ultimately a votes for the depth and breadth of the pandemic.

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Andrew Mitchell: So for Lumen's day rate. a danger is something that we can't prepare against, whereas a risk is something connected to decision.

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Andrew Mitchell: So we live with the danger our citizens about the Government don't account for the risk of gray rhinos, whether that p pandemics or other such things.

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Andrew Mitchell: and of course, something like COVID-19 pandemics in general. Lumen's concept of ecological communication, I think, comes into play here as well. So in 1980, his 1985 book, Ecological Communication them discusses how ecological factors only have meaning for functional subsystems, if they perturb the operations of that subsystem or resonate it

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Andrew Mitchell: with it in some way. No participation does not exist within the communications of society. So whilst COVID-19 is evidently a specific case, the risk of infectious disease is is well known, so it can be argued that the emergence of COVID-19 or pandemic becomes a resonance problem. So we had insufficient resonance between the States and global institutions, healthcare institutions and virologists, others saying that measures were insufficient. So a quick look at the

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Andrew Mitchell: publications on

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Andrew Mitchell: pandemic research before the COVID-19 pandemic began. Biologists were making it very clear that there was a chance. Something like this could emerge again a grey rhino which decision makers ignored.

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Andrew Mitchell: So in the modern world everything can be traced back to a decision or lack of one. So again, we live with a danger of our government aren't taking pandemic risks seriously, but on the flip side. We also, if there's a lot of preparation for a pandemic which doesn't occur, the Government will then be criticized for wasting tax pay and money which could have been better spent in a

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Andrew Mitchell: at different areas. So

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Andrew Mitchell: in a world where everything can be traced back to the decision or the lack of it, the governments are in a bind decision. Makers are in a bind to some degree. If they prepare for these high impact low frequency events, they'll be accused of not preparing for more day to day problems. But if we don't, as in the case which we had when 2,020 emerge, they'll be accused of not taking risks seriously.

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Andrew Mitchell: So moving now on to the medical as a social system, one of the so this is one of the subsystems in functionally differentiate society, going to Loman and has the code sickness, health.

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Andrew Mitchell: So doctors are orientated towards sickness. So if you're healthy in all ways, then there's no need for you to enter the medical system. And of course there's many types of sickness, but only one type of health.

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Andrew Mitchell: So there's no symbolically generalized medium, like in other systems, such as money in the economic system, so communication is successful. If patients cooperate and take special symbols, so technical treatments, specific medications in order to cure themselves so ourselves, as a non medical experts will engage in the treatments and medicines, hoping that they will have the desired effect.

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Andrew Mitchell: So sickness is a positive volume and communication. Health is not capable connectivity. Some medicine merely about the treatment of the sick.

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Andrew Mitchell: and health is seen as an in society as a maximal value. It's unquestionable. Professional ethics of doctors. almost always prevail.

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Andrew Mitchell: So when Covid emerged in early 2,020 in the West Government summer won the world, having no real knowledge of how severe the pandemic is exactly what the COVID-19 this Coronavirus was, having no cure of vaccine at that time locked down that countries in an attempt to prevent the spread of infections. So in many countries I'm in Japan, we went back from leaving a house by, I believe, in Europe. America people locked down in the homes.

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Andrew Mitchell: Borders were closed Japan was somewhat controversial. In that case it would allow Japanese citizens to come back to Japan, but not those holding visas like myself. Luckily I was in Japan at the time, so it didn't affect me. There were mask mandates in many places, many restaurants, bars were forced to close, and

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Andrew Mitchell: there was a lot of resulting economic damage from that.

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Andrew Mitchell: So again, health was seen as a maximal value above all else. So I'm not a medical expert, so I'm not here to debate whether that's correct or not, but as a second, or the observer the economic effects from lockdowns mitigated by mass stimulus packages. But the the idea that we could balance economic needs against deaths from COVID-19

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Andrew Mitchell: at least. From what I've seen in the research, and especially the discourse in mass media wasn't considered, I think, in the Uk. There was talks about not killing Granny by leaving your home to go and see her things like this. So again, health scene as a maximal value, effects on education, children's development, mental health still being debated within the political arena, it became a hot potato, but it was often used by political parties to score points.

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Andrew Mitchell: So there has been some research already done on Covid using gloom social system theory. So Zaza, a creation scholar, spoke about the moral coding used in Croatia during pandemic at the beginning of the pandemic the good guys who were medical stuff trying to stop the pandemic and the bad guys, those who are going out, those going abroad bringing the pandemic back to Croatia with them.

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and it became a political issue as well, so that I believe there was an election. During the pandemic there was a safe Croatia slogan, safe, unsafe memorial, coding safe.

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Andrew Mitchell: unsafe and ruling CDU party, a Christian party, which now it fits into what kind of was talking to about before

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Andrew Mitchell: it bans many public events. But allow Catholic Church events to take place. So CD, you and church were very close, Catholics would vote for the CDU, and they won in the subsequent election.

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So this does remind me as well of

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Andrew Mitchell: the black lives. Matters protests in the Us. In a mid 2020, a medical professional signing documents. I think a thousand medical professionals issued a statement, saying, Don't go out to protest, so we don't go out of your home unless it's to protest. And there was a lot of backlash about this about so going to meet one's grandparents going to church services. Coronavirus will affect me there, but not when I'm in a mass protest. And again.

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Andrew Mitchell: I'm not arguing on a moral coding point of view, whether what's right or wrong. But as a second order observer, it just become quite an interesting sociological question.

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Andrew Mitchell: Now, Stefan Roth, who's

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Andrew Mitchell: put outputs a lot from the Lumannian point of view, spoke about the negative coding of medical system towards sickness and the unchallenged medical gaze Heroding. What through Co. Wrote about in the seventies, the cultural suspicion which everyone is potentially ill unless proven otherwise. And he made a point in a paper last year about Covid, representing an expansion of the scope of situations to which that gaze is applied. heroding.

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Andrew Mitchell: The theory, such as the state of exception and the worry about State power with its spread over COVID-19 could potentially be used in other medical emergencies or other areas as well.

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Andrew Mitchell: So moving on to global inflation. Now.

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Andrew Mitchell: global governments printed a lot of money in order to save the will be their economies during the pandemic. Now, once the pandemic started to come under control somewhat when vaccines were being widely distributed, at least in the Western world.

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Andrew Mitchell: There was a big spike in demand, as people were buying more things able to go out again and inflation rows. As a result.

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Andrew Mitchell: Now, central bankers said, inflation is transitory, and the reason, they said, that is, they believe that as things reopen they'll be an initial spike in demand, but supply will soon catch up, the equilibrium will be restored, and inflation will come down as a result.

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Andrew Mitchell: and the best way about to deal with inflation is usually to put interest rates up to kill demand. But they made the bets that it will find an equilibrium, which was a special case because of the corona pandemic.

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Andrew Mitchell: Unfortunately, that doesn't work out, and, as you can see on my present slide on the right hand side there is massive inflation across the world. Now, Japan's an interesting case. It's been trying to find inflation for many decades. Now, however, it actually has a wrong type of inflation. It's having inflation due to supplied side issues rather than the demand side issues.

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Andrew Mitchell: Now. again, this goes into risk danger. The central bank is took a risk by saying, inflation will be transitory. And now we're having global economic issues as a result of this. So the best case scenario, from what I read is a soft landing where there'll be very few job losses, as inflation naturally comes back down as you find the equilibrium between supply and demand. Again, worst case is a global recession. Even a global depression as

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Andrew Mitchell: demand collapses and supply collapses aside, prices collapse. leading to

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Andrew Mitchell: the worst case scenario, a replay of the Great Depression from the 19 twenties on the thirties. Okay? So I noticed myself. I don't have so much time left, so I'll try to get through these slides quickly, so

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Andrew Mitchell: I'm going more on to the Russia. Ukraine war. So Lumen didn't write so much about international relations. However, Matthias Albert to be Le Felt University has tried to expand Lumen's theory into this. speaking about how? Yes, we have global function systems.

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Andrew Mitchell: However, we have the form of organizing political authority and suffering. Territorial states remains firmly tied to the segmentation of a system. World politics and territorial defined segments take on the characteristics of individual, highly stratified subsystems. So

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Andrew Mitchell: we can therefore think of nation States decision making organizations which will act for their own benefits. And what I find is the beauty of Albert's approach is, it allows us to avoid methodological nationalism by both acknowledging from the point of view of international relations. We have nation states also also acknowledging from point of view within States, that we have. The State itself is just a collection of organizations operating within various function systems simultaneously.

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Andrew Mitchell: So going on to the Ukraine. Why, this idea of nation states? they still being segmented is, is interesting.

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Andrew Mitchell: So Russia, sorry Russia has had many sanctions put against it by Western powers in order to try to reduce its income to reduce its ability to wage war against Ukraine. Now, one article I did find on in June 2022, which I found very interesting. I'm very lucky, but I actually printed a physical copy of this because it's now been taken down

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Andrew Mitchell: from the BBC news website. So the Us. State Department argued that India was taken advantage of the pain felt by European and Us. Households by importing cheap Russian energy. The Indian Foreign Minister shot back that actually the Us. Sanctions on Russia, around Venezuela, have squeezed out every other source of oil we have. So where are we meant to buy it from? If we obey all these Us. Sanctions.

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Andrew Mitchell: Now, in 2023, the Us. And Europe is still importing Russian energy as refined products. Diesel gasoline from India and Japan as I'm writing in another paper is still signing new contracts with Russia for energy, despite its rhetoric of supporting a rules based international order and standing firmly in the Western camp against Russian aggression towards Ukraine.

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Andrew Mitchell: So, as an anecdote to this, I had dinner with an Indian and the Poly professor last year, and of course Ukraine. sorry the Russian Ukraine war did come up.

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Andrew Mitchell: and while they did not say it quite this bluntly but basic attitude was, why should they suffer by obeying Western sanctions against Russia because of a war between Western powers which doesn't involve them.

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Andrew Mitchell: They felt it. How would it back to the colonial area of civilized Europeans, telling them what they should do. And I included this

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Andrew Mitchell: news article picture from 2023. Why is democratic India helping Russia avoid Western sanctions event again, a very interesting observational point of view, whereas Indians will have the point of view. Why should we suffer economically? Why should the West letters. sorry, how hinder our economic development in a war which essentially is between Western powers. So again, I don't wish to take aside on this, but as a second order observer, I do think it's extremely interesting.

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Andrew Mitchell: so I only have a couple of minutes left. So Bruce Ukraine, more of a grain crisis which I'm sure many of you will know about, so I'll go over quickly. Ukraine produces major crops because of the war, and not able to export these as easily as they were able to before the war. Of course, food prices in Middle East and Africa rose by 30% in the aftermath of the invasion of Russia into Ukraine. This could have led to a global catastrophe into a humanitarian catastrophe.

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Andrew Mitchell: And for details, I'm still not quite sure of. But Russia agreed to allow exports of grain Ukrainian green through 3 ports, Russia. I've tried to play this as a propaganda victory and mass media claiming that there to help power a country similar as they were there to help them during the Soviet times.

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Andrew Mitchell: So the reality of a grain deal is 47% of the grain is going to high income countries in Europe, and only 20% is going to poorer countries in the Middle East and Africa.

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Andrew Mitchell: and to not only is a great not going where it would be of most help. Ukrainian grain is also causing problems in European markets, pressing prices in Eastern Europe below production, price and Poland and Hungary, of blocked entry of Ukrainian farm produce to protect their farmers so much like that continual imports of Russian energy. European country actions do not match their rhetoric against Russia. And again, as a second order observer, I think this is a interesting case which I'm hoping to expand on

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Andrew Mitchell: so to try and quickly wrap this up. Us China relations.

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Andrew Mitchell: we all know this has been going on for decades now, and has come to a head of the last few years. USB. She is a dictator. Chinese view again, with respect. Taiwan Taiwan is Chinese. Why is the Us. Why other Western Powers interfering in East Asian politics, anyway?

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Andrew Mitchell: So an unfortunate confluence of random events. In my opinion, no COVID-19 could not have been predicted, but a pandemic is a great rhino. Again, inflation, Milton Friedman would argue, is always an everywhere monetary phenomenon. A new central bank, decisions which led to the current inflation crisis. We see across the world

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Andrew Mitchell: a rising tension between Western Russia for decades and between us and China. So this isn't something that's happened out of the blue lack of environmental sensitivity. Partially, I think, this can explain it. So. COVID-19. Yes, lack of resonance with the grey rhino of pandemics in the environment. Again, inflation, lack of intervention by central banks. When we had the tools to be able to do this.

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Andrew Mitchell: Russia, Us. China relations. It depends on one's first order, observation, a Poo and G dictators, or are they holding ballad security concerns? So I think most of those from a more liberal normative point of view, will think that dictators, and therefore it will be difficult, if not impossible, to build system sensitivity as Western politicians, to deal with their dictatorial actions.

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However, if you take the view which political realist do, especially if you're offensive offensive realists, this is, John mia shimer. But

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Andrew Mitchell: all countries have a valid security concerns, then us Western policies to accommodate Chinese and Russian

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Andrew Mitchell: security concerns well and put into place, which helps lead to this issue. However, my main contention is that this is a natural consequence. Functionally differentiated society still segmented in the nation States. So we saw that many countries during Covid acted for their national interest first rather than the global world money printing by rich countries with a beggar by neighbor attitude. So the Japanese economy is now suffering because of us. Efforts to tame inflation is its country

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and destroying the dollar yen rate. As a result so good as I will know the reason I'm not in Melbourne today is because of Yen has collapsed against the dollar, making it extremely expensive me for me to travel to other Western countries now.

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Andrew Mitchell: and Russia, Us. China, or all segmented entities operating with a global political system. So if you believe, as I do, that there are no universal norms, and Lumen certainly wouldn't believe. But it's very difficult to find a way to orientate to these actions, and, as India have shown through the discussion on importing Russian oil norms vary for a place to place.

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Andrew Mitchell: So again, I've also unfortunately gone over by a few minutes. But the global crisis of the 20 twenties are occurring to a confluence of random events, but offence which could have been prepared for at least to some extent. So it's chaotic as a first or the observer. There's a lot of contradictions and problems which is a second order functionalist descriptive of that. We can see how such events become crises without having any norms test a resolution for them.

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Andrew Mitchell: So this is an issue with multiple competing realities produced by simultaneous existing systems, both domestically and internationally between segmented nation states competing politically.

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Andrew Mitchell: Okay, everybody. Thank you very much for listening. I look forward to any questions you may have.

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Administrator: And

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Administrator: yeah, that's we wait for the mind to be connected to our program.

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Administrator: and that we have already a question from the room. so

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Administrator: yeah.

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Administrator: secondary for your presentation. So all my questions about the medical system during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Administrator: I think. that.

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Administrator: I wonder if the so there was some impact on the video system program which it it decorates its operation. And was some kind of intervention from the outside. For example, there is this some you. Do you think there was some

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Administrator: in the foreign policy integration? by the government or public pressure? in terms of the more our calls you mentioned. based on your observation. what do you say about this point? the impact or integration possible in the vision. okay, thank you very much. Totally feel question. So what? I? So I'm developing this first of all, so I can't give you unfortunately clear answer. But I would say, for example.

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Andrew Mitchell:  my experience in Japan, that seems to be a lot more of an unspoken moral pressure to conform to like masks to conform to, not going out conform to Yeah. Staying out of public places as much as possible. I remember reading. I think maybe Hachiko, in Shibuya, or parks around Shibura were blocked off to stop young people going and drinking outside convenience. So it's because, unlike the West, the I believe the Japanese Constitution

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Andrew Mitchell: when the Americans wrote it, and it was adopted by the Japanese, essentially

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Andrew Mitchell: limits the power of the Government to do things during the pandemic. So the Japanese Government, unlike Western powers, couldn't lock down its population. However, there was a strong moral pressure, moral coding, I think, from the wider Japanese society, especially towards young people. there was, unfortunately, I think, some pressure towards people from China who are long term residents as well like a sort of they the bad guys, even though we've lived in Japan. They were

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Andrew Mitchell: that from China. And so it's Coronavirus. So I do think in the Japanese case. There's a lot of moral pressure there. And in terms of political intervention, I think it's very clear that for political systems across all different political systems in different countries or different states in different countries. Very much did take very strong political actions in order to regulate the medical system by, especially with a potential

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prevention side with lockdowns, musk mandates? I think in the Us. Especially, there was, you know, you can't enter stores, or you can't work for the military if you don't have vaccinations. So

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Andrew Mitchell: I think yes, there is a lot of political interpretation and more pressure. I'm still working on exactly how deep that is from a Lumannian point of view that

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Administrator: thank you. I think there was a so interaction between you.

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Administrator:  So why on has come on? Do you have a question.

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wayan marianta: Andrew?

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wayan marianta: Yes, thank you. Thank you for a very excellent presentation. I'd like to ask about the role of up to or agents in Lumany and fairy. because,

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wayan marianta: yeah, your presentation reminded me of Lumann. I I started looking at a long time ago when I did my thesis in the Philippines exploring the role of

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wayan marianta: Philippine V sub conference in

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wayan marianta: a Philippine political or

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wayan marianta: okay. But it seems that in Lookman's theory the role of upcour is under plate of people missing. So I'd like to know your thought on the role of upcour. Let's say that the role of states strong, straight with week State in solving problems in subsystems, let's say in economy

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wayan marianta: economy crisis, or in medical world, such as the

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wayan marianta: pandemic and also any international relation, let's say you as China, or

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wayan marianta: which is affecting the panel. We know that Japan is now having a new security policy. Right? So it's also the flow formulated by the States. But it is, it seems that to me that it's underplayed in Lumanthe or thinking.

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Andrew Mitchell: okay, thank you. And I think this is, yeah, a very common question about because he kind of famously or infamously, very much ignores the the human being. Shall we say in his theory? It's you know, people don't communicate communication communicates, and I think, in terms of

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Andrew Mitchell: to try to apply your question in terms of what I presented about today. Let's say the Covid measures of the prevention measures during from 2,020 onwards. I don't think that

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Andrew Mitchell: the human or the agent was able to show much agency. During this time, I think there was very strong, like Government mandates for lockdowns, for musk, Mondays for vaccinations. as a touru. When he asked his questions. we spoke about, but moral pressure

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Andrew Mitchell: in Japan there was like a very strong, I suppose, model coding. I don't know if I point in moral coding. I'll keep as pressure for now, because I haven't worked out against so young people enjoying drinking

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Andrew Mitchell: beers in a park, even though there was nothing illegal about it. They perfectly had their legal right to do that. There was huge pressure to the point where local government or councils would build the barriers around part to stop young people entering. So wha whilst I think that the concept of actors and agency is very important,

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Andrew Mitchell: as a sociological tool to analyze how it perhaps affected individuals or people could come together. in some ways, during these problems and in other problems as well.

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Andrew Mitchell: I think that the concept of these crises

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Andrew Mitchell: tend towards a more top down organizational approach, and I think the power of those organizations tends to suppress the ability for actors to show very much agency in them. And I mean to give the the example. You're talking about the pros to tooriating security arrangements between Japan and China

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Andrew Mitchell: again. I'm not I. I've lived in Japan for many years now, but I'm not Japanese, but

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Andrew Mitchell: I can always notice if things are deteriorating. There seems to be a lot more anti Chinese things in the news that seems to be like more, not against Chinese citizens themselves, but against China like more. how can I put it? Not directly attacking China per se, but things about Chinese human rights, about Taiwan, and especially, I think, with Taiwan being shown as a bastion of freedom against the autocratic.

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Andrew Mitchell: dictatorial, Chinese Communist Party. So again, I think

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Andrew Mitchell: yes, it can be argued that the lack of inclusion of act as an agency, and lumen theory is an issue on one hand. But I think that it depends on your point of observation. My point of view. Observation is how these organizational systems, how these social systems tend to shape C in certain ways, and

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the price of making that observation is to some extent ignoring the actor on their agency. So I know about some, fortunately a bit of a wishy answer. But that's what comes to my mind at the moment.

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Administrator: Thank you. Thank you

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Administrator: almost out of time. But

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Administrator: anyone has a really.

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Administrator: we can drop up because it's exactly the time we were supposed to do, Robbie. thank you, Andrew, for organizing these, and also chatting is very dressing bell, and to all the speakers for online and remotely. And see you to the next session.

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Andrew Mitchell: Thank you very much. Everybody.