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Es decir.

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Okay, alright, thank you everybody. So my paper is called from Fleet to Shining Flea pandemics in the long delay.

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What I was trying to understand with this paper is really a problem that humanity has been wrestling with for quite a long time and that is pandemic deaths right so for long periods of history pandemic deaths have killed large numbers of people they've had profound transformations on political economy on on society and this is not necessarily a phenomenon

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although some people seem to believe that it has. This is not necessarily a phenomenon that has, gone away.

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Right, so this data is presenting. And I'll talk a little bit more about how I count to this.

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The logged pandemic deaths adjusted by world population over time from 1,600 to 2022. Right. And you see this interesting pattern.

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You have, a, an increase. You have fairly high levels of pandemic deaths in the seventeenth century.

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It starts to go down towards the middle of this century this sort of a second bump the eighteenth century.

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Y.

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Has relatively low levels of pandemic deaths. It's in the nineteenth century where especially the latter half of the nineteenth century where you start to see a really big increase.

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In global pandemic deaths. Right. So some people might say, alright, this is something that maybe epidemiologists should take a look at.

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Not really the province of of say I'm a political science personally you know many of you are sociologists But I think it can be useful to look at how long term changes in political economy and and the kind of the structure of the political economy it might shape these kinds of trends.

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You know, not to say that that analysis is gonna tell us everything, but it could be useful to see what patterns emerge.

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So often we may get a version of this story and obviously this would be more people saying this just before the COVID.

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19 pandemic. We get this story that is often very Eurocentric that in the late nineteenth century humanity conquered disease we implemented these public health measures and there are some illnesses some pathogens where that story looks true right if we look at smallpox, some pathogens where that story looks true, right?

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If we look at smallpox right by the late nineteenth century. If we look at smallpox right by the late nineteenth century right by the late nineteenth century measures like vaccination Got smallpox deaths.

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Down to quite low levels. But in fact, if we look globally. Right.

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And this is where it could be useful to look at phenomena from the level of the world system rather than just individual countries, there are many exceptions.

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Right plague epidemics in China and epidemic epidemics generally. Right, actually we're still fairly violent at the start of the twentieth century.

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And even while Europeans might have been celebrating, oh, how much new sanitation measures had improved public health.

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In many places that were ruled by Europeans. That was not necessarily the case, right? These are deaths from various pandemic diseases in india over time right cholera smallpox and plague, right?

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So even in the 19 forties you have continuing cholera deaths at fairly high levels. And here we're talking about something that could be solved by something that could be solved by cured by things like rehydration fairly easy, cured by things like rehydration, fairly easy interventions.

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Right, so understanding the politics of these kinds of trends is really important. My argument and I'm not saying this is the only thing that is driven pandemic, deaths.

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In fact, you know there are many many possibilities but that one factor that has been consistently important over time.

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Is, the extent to which globalization has been driven now one approach might be to look at globally at trade right how much are we trading relative to the size of the global economy?

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Right. And it makes sense. If you have more people moving around the world, there are more possibilities for, viruses to spread.

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However, I actually think that there is a different explanation. That can better account for the data.

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One of the chat is that if we look at trade globalization, although it's not a purely linear function, it is generally expanded certainly since the nineteenth century.

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You do get a drop in the 1,900 thirtys with the depression and the war. But relatively continuous increase after.

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I rather argue that a different phenomenon and that is financialization. Can you do a good job of predicting trends in, how pandemic deaths have become more or less severe over time.

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So financialization occurs where you have a shift in the structure of the political economy. You move from a kind of producer capitalism.

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To a financial capitalism where financial markets are calling the shots. The logic of financial capitalism is very different.

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I mean, think of like, some of you may remember blockbuster video, in a world where they only care about maximizing the share price, it became rational for the company to go into a kind of accelerated decline that ended up killing the company.

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World of financial capitalism. Also changes public policy. In in a few particular ways. First of all, financial markets may develop certain synthetic rules that is to say markets may respond to certain ideas because those ideas are widely held by financial market actors.

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Now at some point in the long run, some of those ideas may be proven to be untrue, but within within those paradigms they are right if you think of the nineteenth century you have to think about the gold standard which was perceived by financial market actors as this seal of good housekeeping if we go to the early

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2 thousands. The belief clearly untrue that house prices would always go up. Was a profitable thing to believe in until it was not.

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So markets develop these synthetic ideas and those ideas form anchors both for market actors but also for people crafting public policy.

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And that can limit the ability of governments to enact public policy that response to major crises right where there may be they want to expand public goods but they get told things like if you do that the the economy will will crash.

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If you do that, we'll say it, run a trade deficit and that won't be good.

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That will limit our ability to stand on the gold standard if it's 1875. And then secondly, financial markets are very responsive much more responsive to short-term profits than they are to more long-riding concerns.

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For thinking about pandemics, often we're thinking about kinds of events that may not be very common.

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And in that sense, market actors may often not, care as much about crafting robust.

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Systems both in terms of the private economy but also in terms of how they're lobbying for public policy.

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So for instance you might get, right, think about just in time manufacturing. Right, where we got a supply chain that was very efficient.

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As long as you assume that nothing goes wrong and then in 2,020, well, we got a big shock to the supply chain and we saw the negative consequences of that.

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Right. I'm not sure what the toilet paper situation was. Where all of you guys were in 2020 was it was not good in in New York City.

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So that sort of suggests a second problem that in a world of financialization you get less robust.

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Kinds of systems. So I've developed an exploratory model in the paper. I actually look at a longer period of data.

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I look from 1,674 to 2,022. Modeling so as my dependent variable I was looking at logs pandemic deaths over time and I was controlling for a few things.

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I was controlling for medical innovation. How inclusive the international health regime was? Was it just, say, European countries or was it much larger than that?

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The degree of trade globalization, the power projection of the leading country. So how big was their Navy and Air Force?

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And then lastly, I look at the financialization of the hegemont. And so I measure that by looking at market capitalization.

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What is the value of stocks in that country relative to the size of their economy right so if if the market is valued very highly relative to the actual economic activity in the country that is a relatively good measure of financialization and one that we can actually track.

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At least in the countries that were hegemonic back to the 16 hundreds. Right? Part of my intuition is that declining powers may often use financialization to intensify their power.

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That is going to often have negative consequences though for the delivery of a public policy that is gonna create a situation where crises become more likely.

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What I found in the data. Is that Right, so to understand this. This is an autoregressive distributed lag model.

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If we look at, so the lag of pandemic deaths path. Past pandemic deaths tend to negatively predict.

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Future pandemic desk that sort of makes sense right just after you've had a pandemic you're not as likely to have one right after.

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When the international health regime is more inclusive, pandemic deaths were lower. And here we see something interesting, right?

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When trade was more expansive, pandemic deaths were higher. However, this is in Model One. However, if you look, if you flip over to Model 2, which added financialization.

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Trade globalization actually loses its statistical significance. And what becomes statistically significant is that is financialization.

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And the relationship there is positive that is to say more financialization predicts. Greater pandemic severity.

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Right. So. Obviously there are a lot of ways in which this analysis is very cursory.

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I probably don't have to tell you it is very hard to measure pandemic deaths over time.

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There is pretty good data. For the major population centers in Eurasia going back to the seventeenth century.

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But obviously there is this series under count of some past pandemic pandemic deaths in the past. But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't study it, right?

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I think that's a case where we can look at what data is there and try to do the best we can from it.

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Identify trends that may exist. And also. Right, I don't view this as the final analysis, but rather as something that opens up.

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Other avenues for research right i think a very interesting next step for me might be to look at how financial markets in the past have responded to pandemics and also attempts by governments to address pandemics.

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That is say did financial market actors respond to pandemics by by balking by engaging in capital flight when governments were actually enacting policy that sometimes would help a little bit.

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It, pandemics may not necessarily be the effect of globalization. But rather, it may depend on the kind of globalization.

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Right so a financial globalization may have different consequences for pandemics than trade globalization. But that's all for me and I look forward to hearing from our other presenters.

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Y después.

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I guess. We respond to the questions now. Yeah. No, I definitely take the point that looking at a shorter period of time.

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Does resolve some some issues I guess the issue is that the thing you can't see with necessarily with cross sectional data are issues that you know there may be some processes that change very slowly over time and you only kind of see that change if you look over very long periods of of history and then also if you're looking if you're trying

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to identify something that is structural that it's not necessarily coming from one particular country but as a function of a structure that can be difficult to observe although there one of the things that I need to, I'm probably gonna, learn more about this summer for instance is how do you run Turgam models, so these

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are. Models to analyze social networks so if one could model the structure in this case, perhaps of some, element of the global political economy.

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Or I mean what would be really great is if there was some kind of structural model of like contagion between countries that could be very, very interesting.

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So certainly that is something that, I think there's a lot of value in doing kind of a cross sectional.

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Cross national look it's not quite what I'm trying to accomplish here, but, definitely, a worthwhile, worthwhile project.

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Y a a veces nuestro en Justin. A. Ah, bueno, pues solo una generación desde Jane, por insisten, ha hecho. Y no solo inmension a a la a ver, vaya insectos, sensacional cuestiones e incluso soy tu es que otra manera, ancho del pueblo.

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No, II would agree. Thank you for the question. I would agree that This is something where I would probably.

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Want to do a more kind of targeted look at, for instance, stock market prices for certain kinds of firms looking at particular crises i mean there are these interesting moments within the COVID.

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19 pandemic for instance. In the early days of the pandemic. There were some people in the Trump administration were making the argument that the market has not crashed.

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Therefore, this Pandemic is not a big deal. Right if you want like kind of like just a great example of this kind of mechanism so i mean i think it's something that one right i this is sort of a view from 10,000 feet From there, I think the next steps are to look at things like.

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A, one could look at archival research for particular, debates that, happened.

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The it strikes me that one of the most promising cases is British policy in British Run India.

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Where, there was there were recurring cholera epidemics and other epidemics.

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And the archival evidence is pretty good in terms of British thinking of what what British policy makers really wanted to get.

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Out of India and you know that. I suspect it will not be surprised, but they did not care that much about the well-being of the indian people

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But thank you for the question.

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Very good.