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So.

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So hello everyone.

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So this is a session titled Social Mobility using history code data. We have 3 papers and then I'm my name is Rumi Achkoshi.

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I'm a PhD candidate in sociology at Princeton University in the United States and I'm sharing this session instead of the session one other party until we couldn't make it here.

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Before like Explaining, the organization of today's session, I'm gonna just read the acknowledgement country on before hope everyone gets gathered I pay respect to the Spread.

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O country here in Nirm where we are meeting. I acknowledge the person present, Cologne Nation, we learnedly, OUrung at a sovereign people here, the culture knowledge holders who maintain and promote the now aboriginal law, customs and custodiansp responsibilities for count the country and the people

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that the country continue to sustain generation after generation into the future for all of us. I recognize that important contribution that the First Nations thinkers have made to sociology including challenges to our dominant ways of thinking.

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We thank all First Nations delegates. In the room today for their contribution to knowledge in sorry I Oh, yes, sure, got it.

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In the discipline, okay. All right, so we can get started. So we have 3 papers. So that means that we have a print of time.

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So here is a proposal. So each presenter has 15 to 20 min presentation and immediately after each presentation we have a discussant Professor Inek MERS from Utrecht University in Netherlands and she will discuss each paper then we have Q&A session with audience in this room or over the zoom.

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So in total, we have about 35 min session for each paper. So in total it's gonna be like 105 min so then we can I hope we can finish on time.

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So that's how each presentation is organized and towards the end of the presentation for 2 oral in-person presenters I'm gonna show you the this handmade 2 min sign before like maybe like sometime 18 min then when you lead like a 20 min I'm gonna show you this like a domains sign.

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Okay, so here's, this is like like the game front today. Then, Let's move on to the first presenter.

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So the first A presenter is Fansi Wen from Austria National University. Paper is titled The Twilight of Chinese Alistocracy.

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Lois ears.

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Oh yeah, could you help?

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Yeah.

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Thank you.

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So hi everyone. Thank you all for coming. My name is Faunty Wen. So starting from this August, I will become an assistant professor at the Department of Sociology at the Ohio State University.

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So this is a joint work with Eric H one who is who will become an assistant professor of political science and New York University this September and Mike Hout who is a professor of sociology and New York University.

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So today I'm going to talk about social mobility in medieval China and the shows of the family pedigree, father's position, and the imperial examinations.

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There has been extensive research on inter-generational mobility in modern industrial societies. However, due to data limitations, we know very little about what social mobility look like in medieval times.

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In recent years, a growing volume of historical data have been digitized and become available to researchers.

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So they allow us to study mobility before industrialization. And test mechanisms of social education and social stratification beyond the contemporary settings.

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So in our data, in our study, We use escalated tomb appitas of male elites in China's Tong Dynasty dating from the seventh century to the ninth century to study social mobility in this era.

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Data from the Tong Dynasty also allows us to further understand the crucial links between education and social mobility.

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Which the literature believes to be a consequence of modernity. But our results suggest that that education even matter long before industrialization.

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The Tong Dynasty was an era of critical institutional development. Youureaucratic recruitment in China until the seventh century were based on systems such as commissioned recommendation, pedigree based allocation, and direct inheritance.

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So in other words, so it actually limited institutionally limited to a small number of clans or like aristocratic groups.

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So the Tong Dynasty witnessed the rise of the Imperial examination system or Kurtzu, which determined the candidacy for civil civil service poses while competitive examinations.

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So it effectively made the bureaucracy open to the majority of adult men in the society.

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The so called medieval Chinese aristocracy had largely disappeared shortly after the Tong Dynasty.

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And historians have long debated the phenomena. While some of them argue that the aristocracy had gradually decay over the course of the Tongue dynasty due to the development of the imperial examination system.

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Some others argued that. The aristocratic advantages in office holding persisted until the very end of the dynasty.

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Our empirical findings lend support to the graduate aK group. We reveal that. Family paradigm the effect of family pedigree has declined over the Tongue dynasty.

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And the importance of education credential had increased over time. And consistent with our, fine, again, consistent with findings in contemporary settings.

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Fathers of status always matter.

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So our data come from escalated tomb epitaphs. These, these slaps of dome, these slabs of stone contain detailed biographies of the disease.

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So we in each modern province of China The escalating The process of asking these epitaphs We must roughly random.

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So our simple Is there for reasonably representative of men who were both literate and financially sufficient to afford appetites at the time.

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So they were the people who were at risk of participating in the bureaucratic system. At the time.

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The basis of our data come from the Nicholas Packet database. Nicholas Tucket is a professor of history at UC Berkeley.

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So in, so. So our analytical sample includes 3,640 individuals.

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So the following photos show what a medieval Chinese tomb epitaph looks like. So the photo on the left shows a tomb epitaph in its original archaeological site.

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So for the photo in the middle, it shows the cover of the tomb epitaph. And finally, the photo on the right shows the content of a tomb appetite.

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The taxes of an epitaph includes very useful data for sociological analysis. So it usually it often includes information on a deceased person's coroner and surname, father and grandfather's offices.

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The deceased person's career history and the age and year of deaths.

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So the target database contains the name of the last office taken by the disease. And the names of the highest offices taken by his father and grandfather.

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However, it lacks the information on family pedigree and examination success as well as the numeric ranks.

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These offices mentioned above. So, in our analytical sample, this information actually come from our original data collection.

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To operationalize aristocracy we rely upon the historical concept of prominent brunch under the Coral surname combinations.

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So for each individual in our data set. We trace his ancestral lineage. In reliable genealogy sources.

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And determine whether or not the person came from a prominent branch. So in which case, the variable family pedigree takes the value of one and 0 otherwise.

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So for example, the famous Tong Dynasty poet Dulphu came from the Shimeyang branch of the Klem Dole of Jingzao.

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So according to our definition, so he is an aristocrat.

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So.

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We also obtained a full list of imperial exam passes. In the Tong Dynasty based on a variety of historical sources.

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And then we just match the individuals in our data set to this full list. So that for each individual in the data set we have a variable taking the value as one if the person had passed the imperial exams.

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And 0 otherwise. In addition, since the target database already increased the names of the offices, So we were able to assign the numeric rank these offices corresponded to.

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From Tang Dynasty bureaucracy dictionaries.

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So on the basis of our prior knowledge on social stratification and mobility as well as the specific contacts in the Tong Dynasty.

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We proposed the following hypothesis. So first of all, we hypothesize that Oh, over the entire period of Tong Dynasty, family pedigree should play at diminishing role in determining a man's career advancement in the bureaucratic system.

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Second. The education credentials such as passing the imperial examinations. Passing the inferior examination.

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Should become increasingly more important. And finally, so we also expect that consistent with contemporary findings, the effect of father's status on sun status should always be positively significant.

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And our dependent variable It's a person's office rank. So there were 9 broad ranks in the town bureaucracy.

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And within each broad rank there were 2 or 4 sub-ranks.

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So the smaller the value, the higher the rank and therefore more successful than an individual has become. In our raw data.

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So as we can see, so we have a lot of variation in our deep dependent variable. So some some people were high achievers.

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While nearly 30% of the sample failed to take any rank offices. In the bureaucracy sixth system.

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You know, empirical analysis. We revert the coding. We revert the coding so that a higher value reflects a higher rank and therefore higher success.

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In a person's career.

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Then we just regressed like a person's office rank over our variable of interest. Plus the control variables.

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So in the following figures the x-axis denotes a person's year of birds and the y-axis denote the coefficient.

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On office rank. For a specific variable. Conditional on other variables. So the first figure actually shows that the effect of family pedigree.

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Was initially very strong, but it gradually we had gradually declined. Since the seventh century. And in contrast, the effect of passing the imperial exam exams was initially non-assistent.

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And it grew over time. So these findings actually So suggest that The importance of education credential was on the rise during the period.

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And the political advantages of these ancient great houses had gradually vanished.

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And finally, we show that the effect of father's office rank on sons office rank has always been positively significant.

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And the effect persists over time. So this finding is highly consistent with our knowledge in observing other societies in contemporary societies like or in other like more more than industrial in a Western Ward.

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So basically the father's success always help a son's success.

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So in conclusion, so in this study, We use a very unique data set of office rank and imperial examination success for 300,000 603,640 individuals from the Tong Dynasty epitaph.

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To study social mobility in the medieval times. Our empirical results suggest that the Tong Dynasty was indeed an era of grand transformation in Chinese history.

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There was a coexistence of aristocracy and proto-meritocracy. And it witnessed the changes in their relative importance.

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So to the best of our knowledge, we are the first empirical studies that use multiple multivariate regression analysis to study social stratification and mobility in medieval times.

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And our findings highlight the importance of education. So education was a crucial determinum. Long before modernity.

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Thank you so much and I look for your comments.

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You have 7 7. Yeah, okay.

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Or at Yeah, Okay, so, so I'm not gonna do a long, discussion or so or just have some questions but let me start with saying that I find it a very nice paper and a very creative way of handling historical data and these these sources really very nice and the way you combine it with other data

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sources. As well. So impressive. I had actually 3 questions for you and the first is about representativeness.

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So you say not much about it, you say it's randomly collected. But I know that for the second period you you relatively have more.

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Of these stones then for the first period. So I wondered is that is there really some growth or is that because they could be funds more easily or is there, so it could be the Turkish population growth.

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It could be that there's a growth of the elite. so it and it could also be that there is educational expansion in that in a modern to use a modern term or it could also be upgrading of the occupational structure and all these things are a little bit in the paper but not so clear.

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So maybe you could give some more information on that. And then II actually know nothing about the history of Chinese society or very little.

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So I looked in Wikipedia for the police exams. And no, actually it was confirmed to what I had a kind of an idea of and I asked you for more confirmation that there were actually different levels.

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In these examinations that yeah, so that that qualified people for different types of your elite positions.

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So was that available? Could you do something with that and could it be that that also affects the estimate of your educational effect.

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And then I've want to tell you a little bit more about interpretation. So you say, okay, we find an equalizing effect of education.

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So there's no effect. Or farther so status for those who passed the exam. So that is very positively formulated.

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But you could also formulate it negatively the same interaction. Yes, what is called compensatory advantage.

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So there's no effect of passing the exam for people from high state families. So that means that these high status families take care that their children reach a high position even if they are too stupid to do the exam.

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And So that is just an intimate. So look whether you would also maybe could phrase it like that.

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And so when, so I try to make a small predicted effect figures from your tables and that could be done but then I tried to make small predicted effect figures from your tables and that could be done.

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Oh, thank you. So because we include a lot of like modern day like province dummies in the model so yeah so so you cannot like easily calculate a constant no no no but nevertheless this constant also gives you kind of an idea of the size of defects.

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And I also did not know whether you actually centered your variables before you put them in the. And I also did not know whether you actually centered your variables before you put them in the interaction.

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I think you didn't, your variables before you put them in the interaction. I think you didn't, but since you put them in the interaction. I think you didn't, but since there are no constant, I could also not see that.

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So, about that, that's,

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So yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, we do the Q&A while or if we want to deprive them.

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Yes, yeah, so maybe I will just respond here. Yeah, so thank you so much for all the questions.

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Yes, so maybe I will just respond here. Yeah. So thank you so much for all the questions.

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So, so about the representatives. So basically, so we won't say that the sample is representative, but we will say the more than the excavation of the epitaphs is more or less random.

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The the process of asking escalating the epitaphs is more or less random. So usually for example, more in modern days when you try to build a real role when you when you like try to develop real estate so it's very likely that you will like will get those epitaphs underground.

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So in that case, so that's how we get most of the avatars. In a simple.

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So and we also believe that more than the economic development actually it should be very distant from the historical past because there were we were talking about his story which was like more than 1,400 ago so the modern day economic development should not be the key driver of the excavation.

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So, so we would believe that and we tend to agree with the historians interpretation that the escalation of these epitaphs is more or less random.

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So it's so that we will say that the the sample could be like representative within each province. So if we also include the modern-day province as a fixed effect in our regression models.

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Yeah. And secondly, in terms about the levels of the exams, yes, so there are of course there are levels of exams.

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So in our design, so actually we only use the hires degree that a person passed the exam as the indicator of the exam success.

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So we use that is because in the Tongue Dynasty the the Imperial examination system was still developing so it actually it's still in it's like a very early form it was developing so we think that maybe it is it is It is more like meaningful to use the highest degree.

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But in later periods as the system like become more and more mature. So we was we would believe that in in those eras like that maybe different levels of the degree may also have like different impacts on your position like in the bureaucratic system.

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But at the very early, maybe I, we believe that maybe like passing or not passing is the key difference over there.

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And finally about the equalizing effect. Yeah, I think your interpretation is very, very interesting with didn't think about that because at a time we just saw that the the interaction effect is negative which means that if you If you passed the exam your family category actually matter less.

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So, your father's your father's position actually matter less. Yeah, so yes, we can definitely in a different way and I think it's very interesting.

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Yeah, we will think about that. Thank you. Okay, so, we have base statement, it's more data, so if you have any questions, for your hand, and then my theory.

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Nice to meet you. I am from Korea. Will you show me, some, I figures, the first?

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Video Oh yeah, okay. Oh yeah, yeah. Discord is a decline, from, Okay.

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550 from 2 7 700 and and and rise to 800 D.

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So, at this, figure, The first and the end of period maybe some political events are changing the governance maybe so did you talk about this political events.

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So if you stable results maybe control at this political event maybe. So we have like decade dummies as a fix effect in our regressions.

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So that should like capture some of the like the events happen at the time. But of course it is impossible to capture all the events.

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But I'm thinking, but I actually I won't interpret the the the coefficients during the last 50 years as a rising trend because because they are like, they make it has relatively small number of observations.

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But what we can do is that actually if we want because the epithet the customs of having 2 appetites actually lasted for more than 1,000 years.

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So actually we were able to also collect data for the dinosaurs afterwards. So if we continue our data set so actually we can run an even longer period we can make a plot for even longer period so in that case actually So my guess is that maybe I don't think that the rising term will show up again because I think right now

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it's more most likely to most likely due to the small observation during the end of the dynasty, relatively small number of observation during the end of the dynasty.

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Hi, my name is Mata Kotrinska from the Polish Academy of Sciences.

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Well first congratulations on the fascinating paper. I had some of the questions that already you raised about sample representativeness.

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But I wanted to ask about the estimated effect. You and I should say that I have not read the paper which I think is uploaded in the system.

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So I have not done that, so I'm sorry in advance if that is clarified in a paper.

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You were talking about the gradual effects, but is it because it might it be because That's the kind of model that you fit.

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If you fit a linear model, it kind of forces the effect to be gradual even if the underlying data is not so much.

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So the question is had you tried fitting some more flexible models like splines or generalized additive models that would be more flexible to the actual trend in the data.

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Or alternatively, an alternative I think would be in these graphs to actually show raw data points. Yeah, yes, yes, I think yes, I think you are right so we can definitely show like for example some non-parametric estimates or even raw data up the data point.

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So at the moment actually we have the we have the we included time dummy and also the square term of the time so we actually allowed yeah we allow some flexibilities but of course of course so I think we can even allow further flexibility to show the estimates.

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Yes.

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But there's actually one question from Bruce on Zoom. So, Rich, you wanna Speak out.

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Yeah.

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Oh Hello, hi, can you hear me? Great presentation. Thank you so much. I was just wondering the the it looks to me like the you're treating the rank in the bureaucracy as a continuous variable.

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But it might be, I mean, I might, you might think of it as ordinal.

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So the difference between the ranks might not be the same at different levels have you sort of tried playing around with that to see if you're, results are sensitive to different, treatments, say like,

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Different, I don't know, treating as a as a dummy perhaps at different levels.

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I don't know those different ways, but yeah, thanks.

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Oh, yes, absolutely. So actually I think that the variable by in nature can actually support this kind of analysis because at the time so even though there were 9 ranks and 2 or 4 sub ranks within each night within each broad ranks.

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So actually even at a time so people know that there are like a for like even broader rank among these Small ranks.

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So because for the first 3 ranks they are considered as the elite rank. So they are the endowed chair professor.

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You know, no, actually the first 2 ranks they get they can be considered as endangered professors in academia and the first 2 ranks they can be considered as indulgences in academia. And the first 3 ranks, they are the full professor.

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And the first 3 ranks, they are the full professor. And oh, sorry. And the first 3 ranks, they are the full professor.

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And then the green category and orange category, they can be considered as associate professor and Blue category can be considered as a system professor.

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So people actually have know that even at a time. So, so yes, so actually the dependent variable in nature and supports like the original analysis.

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Yeah, so yes, so I think we can explore that in our, we can explore that in our analysis.

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So maybe, maybe not in this paper because actually this paper we submitted to PNAS so it has very limited page.

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So the page limit is only 6 pages. So, so we cannot elaborate more but I think the data set actually support like more refined statistical analysis.

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Sure you had a similar kind of question as Riz just mentioned. So when I look at this figure I just had the intuition that, I just wonder the kind of the runt hierarchy.

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Although it's kind of ordinary stable, but I don't really know the interval. Let's say like between like a 3 and 4 is stable over time.

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You know what I mean? So maybe in like a in the ARI 60 sixth century. The lung 3 to one is less perceived like procedures than the like a late Oh, you mean whether or not the red or?

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So for these eyes I always think they are more or less constant over time. So for these eyes I would think they are more or less constant over time.

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So, so, so yeah, so, so, so we actually, so at the moment we try to code the dependent variable as a continuous variable and we did like like we didn't distinguish the the ranks.

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So we actually, we now, we now actually we treat the every single rank. At this equal distance but but But yes, so I think technically we can explore others.

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But I think most sensible ways to do that is we can run some ordinal. A load of regression to see the whether or not there's like a bit count of points between my broad categories.

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Yeah. Question. Have about 5 min.

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Thank you very much. Great presentation. And apologies if you've already answered the question. I arrived a bit late.

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Do you have any information on purchase of office and whether that is significant as part of your modeling? So you mean purchase?

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Yes, sale and purchase of office. So, so I think that actually happened like in much later periods.

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So I think for the dynasties before this. So the actually the office recruitments were mostly based on

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Were mostly based on Like either like commission recommendation or pedigree based allocation. So basically if you are like an aristocrat you are you have institutional advantage to be appointed in the bureaucracy.

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So, but on the rise of the imperial examination system, so actually the emperor's started to looking at other credentials.

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So, so, so we believe that this is how the game has changed.

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Yeah.

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I wonder, from, you just show me the, formality.

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Oh yeah. The third, degree is Maybe. By the, sons, high degree.

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Evaluate, the brothers and grandfather. The, So, as a user, in Korea

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I mean, it's a highly too high per person. Yeah, yeah, so yeah, so, I wonder.

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Yeah, so actually so because because the because in different dynasties or in different periods. So usually like so so emperor actually actually sometimes like actually assign offices in like they actually assign the ranks of their offices in a slightly different way.

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So, so effort in account here, the rank 3 is almost already the highest rank sum for most officials.

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So just like it's just like perfect full professors. So for most people, a full professor is your highest level, right?

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But only very, very few of them. The emperor would give like an even like additional honorary.

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So they will give you 2 or one. So they are actually like endowed chair professors in our, in our industry.

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So basically, like for most people, so among the elite group, among the most elite group, like rank 3 is already the highest level for most officials cannot achieve.

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So the full professors is also like for most people, who professor is the highest level academic level that you can achieve.

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But very, very few of us can. Go even further by getting any in doubt chair. So that's it that's I think that's basically what happened during this period.

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But in later periods, actually sometimes the rule changed. So sometimes, and so in later period actually sometimes the there are also more rank 2 and ramp one so you won't see like a peak in rank 3.

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So this is just very specific in a period. Thank you. So it sounds like the transition from 4 to 3 is much easier than transition from a street to 2. Yeah, yeah.

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So because the associate professor to a full professor is still relatively easy, but full professor to indulge you actually I think that is very different.

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Okay so maybe we can move on to the next presentation.

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So the second presentation that happened on Zoom online, the presenter is Lewis Henderson from University of Oxford.

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The title is Political Economy of Social Immobility and Occupational entitlement in industrializing Coventry.

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Okay, thank you very much for me to share my screen.

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Oh, you're getting a bit of a preview. Sorry.

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Yes.

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Can't see that. Great. Okay. So, very pleased to be here, virtually to talk to you about this paper.

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My name is Lewis Henderson at the University of Oxford. I'm a final year PhD student in the faculty of history a historian who knows about regressions they couldn't resist with saying and then my co-author is, Maurice Kaiser, you know a postdoc at the university too.

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Okay.

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Then in the Department of Economics so our paper is about a rather close small study of Coventry.

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For about 30 years around the beginning of the nineteenth century and we're motivated to study Coventry in detail.

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Because we think it's gonna give us insights into 3, features of sort of the macro.

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Economic history of this period so there's a traditional narrative in literature that technological change, in the Industrial Revolution was deskilling.

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And this you has been given some statistical support by Alexander to play and, Jacob Weissdorf.

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Who find that the average experience of workers in this period was essentially to, to get, enter less skilled occupations.

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There's more unskilled occupations over time. On the other hand, another strand of literature emphasizes the role of highly skilled mechanics.

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Technological shocks essentially raise the demand for sort of mechanical skill and the apprenticeship system expands to accommodate this demand.

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And you get more sort of highly trained mechanics that have the renewed remunerated mechanics.

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And so if you think about these 2 literature's it's sort of a hollowing out view of the occupational distribution there's a lump at the bottom.

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And sort of more opportunities at the top. And in a sort of, rational choice framework. This could be interpreted as a as a greater return to human capital and you might expect race greater social mobility.

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But there's no sort of evidence that that happened. so we don't necessarily subscribe to a rational choice.

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Framework were sort of inspired by the, varieties of capitalism literature. Which we take as saying that the value of different skills is shaped by institutions.

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So particularly because skills have risks associated with them and institutions can sort of mitigate those risks. And then as well, there's, evidence that institution shape social mobility in early modern Europe.

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Through the different effects of But the literature on industrialisation has tended to be, sort of technologically deterministic.

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Coventry we think offers a good opportunity to examine these issues because there's a succession of sort of rapid institutional changes.

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It's a potentially good case study and there's also technological change associated with industrialization. Okay, so Coventry was a, very wealthy medieval city.

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It's wealth derived from the woollen trade and it had it was sort of long established.

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It had long established rights and freedoms. In the eighteenth century ribbon weaving emerged as as an industry and it quickly became the largest occupational group in the city and it's usually thought of as unskilled work.

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So there's also technological changes involved in, ribbon weaving. So in the beginning, it's sort of just straight single hand loom weaving.

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Engine looms are introduced confusingly these aren't powered looms. They're still hand blooms.

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Hand powered links, but they can produce multiple ribbons at a time. And then the Jicard loom is introduced, which, Basically, it punches you put in punch cards and it produces very elaborate patterns and it's it's quite an interesting piece of technology for the period.

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And then the power loom is what it sounds like. It's a steam powered loom.

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Which got introduced in Coventry about 1840. And then there's watchmaking in the city, which is eventually quite an important.

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Industry but it's it's relatively small until about 1850. The labor market in Coventry we think is shaped by national trade policy.

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So ribbon weaving was, sorry, ribbon imports were banned from 1777.

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76, sorry. And we think this basically means that, ribbon manufacturers in the city And in and in in in in Britain more generally, we're we're not price takers on international markets.

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And so they had sort of flexibility in setting wages. Additionally, local land use policy in Coventry.

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Was important. So Coventry was basically encircled on 3 out of 4 sides by common land which was very difficult to enclose.

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The for institutional reasons. this led to high rents limited migration into the city limited large-scale capital investment and you can see on the left Coventry is like dead at the bottom of this.

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A sort of unhappy league table of industrial, urban growth. And we think that basically this means that labor supply in the city was quite inelastic as well.

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It's just a map showing that on basically all sides, but the northeast. The The Cassidy is surrounded by common land.

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Okay, so one of, Coventry's ancient privileges. Was that it had this municipal corporation.

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And freedom in through the corporation was achieved through service that was the only way to get. To become a freemen.

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So it was not gilded. The city wasn't gilded by this time.

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And that came with the right to vote for 2 MPs who represented the city in parliament the majority of the constituency is composed of weavers.

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They're the majority of apprentices who then become freemen through service. The corporation itself, however, was quite, sort of closed.

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It was self-electing. And historians have described it as vinyl they basically make appointments friends and family to municipal offices that sort of thing additionally, the corporation, has control over the distribution of chair of for a variety of charities derived from the city's medieval wealth.

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So these are basically endowed charities. That, that, that are endowed through the corporation and the corporation is able to distribute them.

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And it does this essentially to win elections. You can think of this as like a slush fund for that for the for the municipality or for the musical corporation.

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Elections happen every 2 every 3 years approximately. They are wild events. You can see a depiction of the election in which William Corbett.

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Was a candidate on the right. Effectively Robin Weavers are like the median voter of this.

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So if you if you want to When an election you craft policies do that that the immediate voter is going to like.

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In this case, you can just pay off. Half the, openly pay off half the electric and that's basically what they did.

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In contrast, the blues were sort of also called independence. And they, represented sort of national causes.

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So William. Cobb, as I mentioned, is a radical. Who tries Coventry? And these causes around this period are increasingly moving towards issues of parliamentary reform and worryingly for the corporation.

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Municipal reform So the municipality is sort of is quite anxious to protect its interest in parliament. And it uses its charities, to do that quite effectively.

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So this table, I don't think you're gonna have time to read, but it's just meant to sort of overwhelmed you with the diversity of different charities that are available in the city.

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So there's just straight grants. There's a very generous loan. Some of them are interest free.

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There's, apprenticeship premiums can be paid for your like your son's apprenticeship premiums might get paid.

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And we sort of worked out, the annual revenue of these charities. And if it goes, if it were to go to buying up the weavers, it would represent effectively a 20% a 10 to 20% subsidy on a neighbors wage.

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And additionally, the Municipal Corporation intervened directly in the labor market. There were regular, sort of disputes about wages and there was a list of minimum prices that and when manufacturers didn't follow the list.

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The corporation would intervene on behalf of the waivers sort of using their social capital to influence them.

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Additionally the corporation were the magistrates as well. So they sort of exercise discretion in, in forcing.

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Or putting down. Sort of parades and riots and things like that.

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So this sort of is confusing for 2 reasons. If the, weavers had so much power through the corporation, why didn't the manufacturers leave there are plenty of weavers just outside the city just where these, sort of issues wouldn't have affected them.

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They could have, basically carried on on without any issues. And, We think the most plausible explanation for this is that ribbon waving, in Coventry was sort of subject to efficiency wages.

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Meaning that the variety of ribbons. Ribbons are sort of sensitive to changing fashions.

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Really consumers are really sensitive to quality that these differences in the ribbons were not easily observable.

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To manufacturers. So that, wavers could basically impose costs. On their employers that they couldn't really do much about.

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And, and we think that basically in a situation like this the the sort of benefits that are derived from the political economy of the city.

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Going to weavers effectively operate to subsidize the payment of efficiency wages. So in Coventry, There's sort of accounts that, basically manufacturers think they can get the best quality for the best price.

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Coventry also has the other evidence for this is the Coventry is the only place that produces these figured ribbons.

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Other places produce plane ribbons where they're not as subject to changing fashions. And we think that this leads to sort of strategic rent sharing.

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So we're sort of inspired by Michael Huberman's work on Lancashire in this period.

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Basically the rents are from the political economy are sort of shared between manufacturers on the one hand and weavers on the other giving the wavers a sort of advantage.

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And and sort of rent. Okay, so we have qualitative evidence for efficiency wages. The mister's cox was a ribbon manufacturer he says basically they overpaid the standard wages to ensure the finest work at got done.

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This the guy at the top of his name sorry he was talking to an MP basically he says there's nowhere else in the country we can get better work done for a lower price.

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Here's just some examples of the variety. These are sort of more usual examples of Coventry ribbons.

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And you can just see the variety and yeah. So again, inspired by Michael Huberman.

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And where there's so much uncertainty over the, wage, and labor contract. He room emphasizes the importance of stable expectations.

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And sort of repeated interactions. Setting the stable expectations as to what sort of employers are going to do what we were going to do and we think that basically when there's a shock to this kind of reciprocal arrangement.

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All bets are off and, the rent sharing is up for negotiation again. There's 2 important shocks.

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The repeal of the import ban in 1826. Which replaces the band with a tariff.

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And reduced wages across the industry and the municipal corporations act in 1835 which basically made the municipal corporation accountable and decoupled.

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Charities from political influence. They were distributed. According to need instead of according to political.

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I can meet, I guess. So we're gonna try and see what happens to social mobility.

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Across these 2 different before and after these shocks using a school from Coventry. Because, we think that these rents are gonna affect social mobility.

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So, Catherine Bailey's school has a unique admissions process. Parents apply to get their son on the admissions register.

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There's sort of a fixed number of places always attend for 3 years. It's only a boys school.

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I should add. And when a spot opens up, whoever is next in line on the register becomes eligible for admission, but they won't be admitted if they've gone past their eleventh birthday.

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This is just sort of a cork that's that's put in the founding document of the school.

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It offers reading, writing, and casting accounts. Yeah, so and then at the end of the school term.

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It arranges and subsidizes the students apprenticeship. But the students are clearly selected in some way, so they're not just randomly entering the school.

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And for example, the rules say they must be able to read. The parents must be willing to pay 6 pence to put them on this list.

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It cannot be quote itchy scabby lousy or that she'll have any nasty infectious disease and they basically have to be well behaved children.

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We're gonna use this, arbitrary cutoff at age 11. To basically be our random assignment to treatment so We think that basically the boys who are just under age 11 are going to be the same as those just past age 11 except that the boys who are just under the threshold are much more likely to get into the

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school. And then we're gonna follow the boys through sort of genealogical sources to measure their human capital and occupational outcomes.

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I'll just give you some examples of that in a second. So these are our registers.

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So just transcribed on the right for you. You can see some of the, information that's included and these are gonna be our control variables.

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So, father's occupation, it's a number of siblings that kind of thing.

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If you look at Thomas Woodcock in the middle. You can see that it says he's past age.

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He's not admitted to the school because he's already 11 when he applies. But the problem is that he's past age and we don't see when that decision was made.

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We don't know when he the decision was made to reject him. Because it just says past age.

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In contrast, we do know when the decision was made to admit the other boys. And so when it comes time to do a sort of regression discontinuity design a standard sort of technique for using these thresholds to get a causal effects.

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We're missing data on one side of the treatment. So. We can't control for the trend for the boys who don't get it the age trend in for boys who aren't admitted to the school.

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That's gonna lead to some omitted variable bias, but we think that that is going to be small because where we do observe the trend in the treated voice, it's never significantly different from 0.

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And because, we don't think there's any reason for that to be different for the untreated boys.

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And because we think there's not much reason for boys to sit on the list once they're past age 11 and just wait once it's already determined that they're not gonna get in.

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So we think that they're gonna be rejected shortly after their eleventh birthday. Basically they're gonna be near the threshold.

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And it's and the bias is proportional to how far away they are from the threshold. We're also gonna use, 2 stage least squares to deal with, compliance issues.

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Which is a sort of standard technique. Here's one example of a boy we we link in the data we're able to collect from.

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So we know that he was born December thirtieth, 1805. He did get admitted to the school.

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He was born in Coventry we know because all the boys are born in company that's I should have mentioned that's a condition.

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So we follow him in the 1,851 census first where we see someone of this name.

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He's the only person of this name born in commentary. We record his occupation. We look at his, family.

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So we and then we trace him back through his wife's name.

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Hey, my name's Tervations of his occupation. So we see him as a watchmaker in 1,834 when son James was born and again when his son John is born and then he becomes a coal dealer by 1851 and we We code these to hiscam, which is a sort of

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continuous measure of social status that we just take from the literature. Here's another example. Amos Field.

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He was not admitted, but again, Very significant mobility. It goes from a weaver to being a chemist.

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And then these 2 examples are basically just selected to show that there is. Intra-generational mobility in the sample there's actually quite a bit of mobility these are effects on human capital outcomes.

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So we take whether the boy reports the correct age in 1851 as an indicator of numeracy.

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And the boys who get into the school are about 40 percentage points less likely to report them wrong age in the census.

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The boys are about, 20% more likely to sign their marriage document indicating literacy and there are about 15 to 20% more likely to do an apprenticeship.

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So on the 3 things that the school is supposed to do, let's receive numeracy and apprenticeship.

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We have observable effects. That it seems to be doing those. However, when it comes time to looking at social mobility.

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The effects are more mixed. So on the left you see the whole sample. Inter-generational mobility the difference between the father's hiscam score Sorry, the son's his sc and the father's his cam score.

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And in the whole sample, there's basically no effect. It's not different from 0.

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If we divide this by pre 1826 there's a negative effect but again it's not really that different from 0.

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We think these effects are basically driven by the number of weavers. Are the number of boys who become weavers.

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So again, On the right at the top, row is the whole sample. It's not that different from 0.

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Before 1826 it's quite significantly positive it's like 40% tissue points more likely.

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And then after 1826, it's not very different. It's not that different from 0.

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So we think basically before I 1826 the school was channeling boys into weaving. Afterwards after this tariff.

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00:59:22.000 --> 00:59:31.000
Weaving was the rents dissipated and weaving was less appealing. And you get sort of, social mobility.

326
00:59:31.000 --> 00:59:46.000
You can see this as well and just sort of the aggregate picture of weaving. So this just shows the number of weavers who go on who do apprenticeships over time and you can see that after the the 1,826 ban was revoked and the municipal form and reform in 1,800 and

327
00:59:46.000 --> 00:59:56.000
35. The number of weavers sort of falls off I called in Chavali as another, trade reform.

328
00:59:56.000 --> 01:00:10.000
But we don't talk about it in this paper. Okay, so our conclusion is that, human capital is not the sole determinant of social mobility and institutions matter particularly rent sharing institutions we think matter.

329
01:00:10.000 --> 01:00:17.000
Thank you very much.

330
01:00:17.000 --> 01:00:25.000
Thank you. So this presentation clearly shows that a historian can do regression.

331
01:00:25.000 --> 01:00:32.000
Okay.

332
01:00:32.000 --> 01:00:41.000
So maybe it's nice if he also sees. Me? So if you have this? Are you?

333
01:00:41.000 --> 01:00:42.000
Okay, I can see your, you share your screen.

334
01:00:42.000 --> 01:00:48.000
I can see you, yeah. Hi. Yeah. All right, I can stop sharing if you'd like, yeah.

335
01:00:48.000 --> 01:01:02.000
Yes. Okay. Yeah, I think this is also very interesting paper. I struggled a bit with it, also in a very brief time.

336
01:01:02.000 --> 01:01:09.000
It came a bit late. I struggled with it because it's there's actually very little sociology in it.

337
01:01:09.000 --> 01:01:19.000
I think there is a huge part of history. That's the first half of the first 2, over 3, of the paper and then there's one third maybe which is quite economic I would say.

338
01:01:19.000 --> 01:01:38.000
And very little sociology. That is not per se bad, of course. But it's it makes it difficult to place the paper and also to comment on it in what direction It should be changed.

339
01:01:38.000 --> 01:01:47.000
So I think you should think about your audience or your readers. So whom do you want to what kind of journal do you want to send it to?

340
01:01:47.000 --> 01:02:03.000
So if it is an historian history journal then the the methods Yeah, I'm not sure how you're gonna sell that.

341
01:02:03.000 --> 01:02:04.000
But if it's just the other way around, you want to sell it to an economic or maybe quantitative sociology journal.

342
01:02:04.000 --> 01:02:14.000
The very large historical part is I think too too large. So the paper is I think a bit difficult in that sense.

343
01:02:14.000 --> 01:02:35.000
So with respect to contents II could not really follow what you were doing. So I would like you to describe the discontinuity analysis and then also the analysis that follow from that.

344
01:02:35.000 --> 01:02:42.000
In a separate paragraph and much clearer. So that's, Yeah, so that people can more easily.

345
01:02:42.000 --> 01:03:02.000
Understand what you're doing. I was I was wondering if you do this discontinuity regression approach, which I think is is creative and good and the data allowed it so that's nice.

346
01:03:02.000 --> 01:03:24.000
Why do the the control variables then still have such a big influence? So you would expect actually that this that they are they are equal these boys who are who entered the school and those who were on the list but don't enter the school so that's the idea of course of the discontinuity analysis.

347
01:03:24.000 --> 01:03:38.000
And you, you say yourself that they are equal with respect to states of the father. But nevertheless, if you if you enter later, control variables in your analysis, they they make a lot of difference.

348
01:03:38.000 --> 01:03:46.000
The effect varies with just between the models. So I did not quite understand where where that came from.

349
01:03:46.000 --> 01:04:01.000
I had another question about, this approach I wanted a little bit because you say in the selection for the schools that this they should already be able to read.

350
01:04:01.000 --> 01:04:09.000
These children before they are allowed to enter the school. And then later you show that they they actually can.

351
01:04:09.000 --> 01:04:21.000
Reads or writes. And and more often than the ones that are not entering the school and because and you say because of their tools.

352
01:04:21.000 --> 01:04:35.000
But maybe, actually they did not qualify. This entrance criterion so they they were they were somehow kept on the list not Not because they does not get their turn, but because they could not.

353
01:04:35.000 --> 01:04:44.000
They did not qualify for the for the reading or writing. Entrance exam or interesting that they did before the school.

354
01:04:44.000 --> 01:04:57.000
Yeah and then maybe last thing is so you your later analysis you do separate for the for the 2 periods.

355
01:04:57.000 --> 01:04:58.000
And it makes sense, but I would have liked to see what happens with the other things between the periods.

356
01:04:58.000 --> 01:05:05.000
So, what about, does the school still function in the same way in these 2 periods?

357
01:05:05.000 --> 01:05:23.000
Do they learn the same skills or not? And then of course you your end is not so not too large so that that may be the reason that you didn't do it.

358
01:05:23.000 --> 01:05:36.000
But that would strengthen your, I think, your augmentation if you could show, OK, the school did not change, but what they could do with it or the situation around it changed.

359
01:05:36.000 --> 01:05:38.000
Yep, it was it for my site.

360
01:05:38.000 --> 01:05:47.000
Hey, thank you very much. Yes. I meant to say at the beginning that this paper is, is still quite a draft.

361
01:05:47.000 --> 01:05:53.000
So the comments on audience are very welcome. We're, still, sort of thinking about that.

362
01:05:53.000 --> 01:06:06.000
So. We did when we were forming the paper, we had sort of, we were sort of inspired by, Age Sondsen's work a little bit on, sort of rents and the effect on social class.

363
01:06:06.000 --> 01:06:15.000
But, yeah, we'd sort of, yeah, we, by the time this draft, it's not really in there so that's a very welcome point and especially for this audience.

364
01:06:15.000 --> 01:06:33.000
The, The issue about. selection. We, we, I didn't show them in the presentation, but we do sort of balancing.

365
01:06:33.000 --> 01:06:42.000
Tables so you know the boys you do get in versus the ones who don't are they any different on observable?

366
01:06:42.000 --> 01:06:55.000
And the ones that are significant are basically the decade fixed effects that we. Include and we think that this has to do so I so you're more likely to be admitted to the school later.

367
01:06:55.000 --> 01:07:01.000
We think there's there's a reform. I should have mentioned there's a reform to what's not really a forum.

368
01:07:01.000 --> 01:07:02.000
The trustees just increase the number of boys that are allowed to be in the school in the later period.

369
01:07:02.000 --> 01:07:16.000
And so we think that just basically explains why you're more likely to get into the school. But on the sort of important variables like, whether your father was a freemen.

370
01:07:16.000 --> 01:07:21.000
Or at least we think of them as more important variables. Maybe we can disagree, but the, you know, father's occupational.

371
01:07:21.000 --> 01:07:26.000
Occupation in terms of hiscam. And the number of siblings.

372
01:07:26.000 --> 01:07:32.000
I think in some of the regressions, the number of siblings is significant, but it's it's not that significant.

373
01:07:32.000 --> 01:07:39.000
And when you have sort of quite a few controls I mean there's you're sort of bound to have one that might be significant every now and then.

374
01:07:39.000 --> 01:07:42.000
But it doesn't really seem to be, anyway, when we conclude it as a control, it doesn't affect any of the main estimates that we have.

375
01:07:42.000 --> 01:07:55.000
And then on the point about, reading ability, yeah, that was,

376
01:07:55.000 --> 01:08:03.000
I think basic well I have sort of other work where I argue quite strongly that the signatures for the measure of like signing your name in the marriage.

377
01:08:03.000 --> 01:08:17.000
Document is not really gonna capture reading very well and that there's quite a lot of people at this time who were knew how to read but they didn't bother, they didn't go on to learn how to write or hold a pen or even cut a pen for that matter.

378
01:08:17.000 --> 01:08:19.000
And, So we think that the signatures is really capturing the writing effect of the school mainly.

379
01:08:19.000 --> 01:08:31.000
The effect on and the this reading level that you need is quite simple. It's basically just being able to read in the primer which is It's just reading like words on a page.

380
01:08:31.000 --> 01:08:43.000
It's not necessarily like reading a text. However, that being said, where they reject boys for not being able to read, it's noted.

381
01:08:43.000 --> 01:08:50.000
So we do have that information. It's very rare. It's like maybe I think there's maybe 4 boys who for that for whom that happens.

382
01:08:50.000 --> 01:08:53.000
And, Basically, I think they might be screened out before. Before this happens.

383
01:08:53.000 --> 01:09:05.000
So the variation in whether you admitted or not seems to really come from being too old. At the time when a spot opens up in the school.

384
01:09:05.000 --> 01:09:28.000
And yes, the I think the final point was whether the literacy and age heaping was was the yeah actually the way we designed this paper was it was kind of different we make we chose the sample based on the schoolmaster that was that was in charge of the school at the time and it would that fact that it was sort of in this

385
01:09:28.000 --> 01:09:38.000
early industrial revolution period and we were just interested in that period. So we didn't really choose it but based around these institutions until It seemed that these were really important and we started looking into it more.

386
01:09:38.000 --> 01:09:40.000
So in the sample, it's just the constant, it's the same school master at the same time.

387
01:09:40.000 --> 01:09:52.000
That was sort of the reason that we chose the the dates that we chose. But I think yeah, in the second period we're sort of Yeah, the sample size gets quite small.

388
01:09:52.000 --> 01:10:05.000
We have done this sort of signatures A-heep. Hey, mis reporting. And I think we're done the apprenticeship too and and there They're going in the same direction, but I think they're not always significant.

389
01:10:05.000 --> 01:10:11.000
Probably because of the sample size issue. But yeah, I take your point. We'll sort of.

390
01:10:11.000 --> 01:10:16.000
Address that a bit bit better. Yeah. I think those are your questions. Yeah, thank you very much.

391
01:10:16.000 --> 01:10:17.000
Hi.

392
01:10:17.000 --> 01:10:22.000
Yeah, yeah.

393
01:10:22.000 --> 01:10:52.000
Thank you. So we have a 5 min. If you have any questions, from the audience, please, if you have any questions from the audience, please raise your hand.

394
01:11:10.000 --> 01:11:20.000
So Lewis, did you answer the question from me? Like which kind of geno you are thinking about?

395
01:11:20.000 --> 01:11:31.000
Yeah, as well. So, in terms of the effect on social mobility.

396
01:11:31.000 --> 01:11:33.000
Yeah.

397
01:11:33.000 --> 01:11:40.000
Well, basically, I mean, we, I think we, in the paper we tried, I mean, I think.

398
01:11:40.000 --> 01:11:55.000
Professor Moss point about, the pay for and the like the quantitative qualitative stuff is quite well taken because we we basically have to use qualitative accounts to try and get at.

399
01:11:55.000 --> 01:12:17.000
What people say about how they're negotiating wages because there's not really like a data set or like a method to say, that, That something is efficient is being paid as efficiency wages or that one wages of rent and another is just the competitive wage for example.

400
01:12:17.000 --> 01:12:40.000
But we think we're fairly sure that basically, the weaving in Coventry, got a disproportionate sort of share of these these rents that sort of are paid to people through for their votes essentially.

401
01:12:40.000 --> 01:12:52.000
And that, made, weaving relatively more appealing than other occupations. Until there were sort of institutional reforms.

402
01:12:52.000 --> 01:13:05.000
In which. Weaving became more competitive. It sort of became less, there was no sort of advantage over other occupations in terms of say, the human capital investment versus what you might get on the other side.

403
01:13:05.000 --> 01:13:19.000
Yeah, so we think it's, I mean, that's our hypothesis right now is that it has to do with the political economy.

404
01:13:19.000 --> 01:13:28.000
Right, it's more. Political economy or some like a equal history economic history journal maybe

405
01:13:28.000 --> 01:13:29.000
Yeah.

406
01:13:29.000 --> 01:13:45.000
Yeah, I mean we I Yeah, we had sort of thought about. Like in industrial relations but there's literally some of it is is gonna be relevant to them but there might not be relevant to them but there might not be that interested in history so Yeah, if you have any suggestions on where it might go.

407
01:13:45.000 --> 01:13:55.000
Yeah.

408
01:13:55.000 --> 01:13:56.000
Okay. Okay.

409
01:13:56.000 --> 01:13:57.000
You are more than to submit a paper to research in social structure and mobility. Thanks for sharing your work.

410
01:13:57.000 --> 01:14:01.000
This is great. Thank you.

411
01:14:01.000 --> 01:14:03.000
Yeah, thank you so much.

412
01:14:03.000 --> 01:14:15.000
So the okay the last presentation is by. Khan Suk Park, from Seoul National University.

413
01:14:15.000 --> 01:14:16.000
Prestige, from Seoul National University. Prestige, primary reduction, disaster and selection of records.

414
01:14:16.000 --> 01:14:22.000
Prestige, Primary Redduction, Disasters, Primary Redduction, Disasters and a Selection of Records.

415
01:14:22.000 --> 01:14:25.000
Typology of Patternio, a su

416
01:14:25.000 --> 01:14:28.000
Sorry, Okay. Okay. Good afternoon. It's very nice to see you.

417
01:14:28.000 --> 01:14:58.000
It's very nice to see you. Today, I delighted to share the topic about the the chosen society is so during the fourteenth century to the the chosen society is so during the fourteenth century to early twentieth century the chosen society is so during the fourteenth century to early twentieth century the reason that we are interested

418
01:14:58.000 --> 01:14:59.000
in society is so during the fourteenth century the reason that we are interested in the our past is the related to the contemporary issue.

419
01:14:59.000 --> 01:15:16.000
We are interested in our pastor is the related to the contemporary issue. As you know, I well, the Korean society, the, our pastor is the related to the contemporary issue.

420
01:15:16.000 --> 01:15:17.000
As you know, I well, our pastor is related to the contemporary issue. As you know, I well, the Korean society experienced very very low fertility.

421
01:15:17.000 --> 01:15:24.000
And that region over the very low opportunities is very complex. It's related to the very, very, very complicated social condition.

422
01:15:24.000 --> 01:15:33.000
I agree that but in order to understand the underlying condition. I agree that but in order to understand the condition.

423
01:15:33.000 --> 01:15:50.000
I agree that but in order to understand the underlying the pattern and the region of our experience. Not only Korea, it is a very similar experience shared by many Confucian society previous, including China, Taiwan, Japan and Singapore like that.

424
01:15:50.000 --> 01:15:54.000
So it is very important to choose the historical formation of the diverse, the social formation of modern capitalism.

425
01:15:54.000 --> 01:16:18.000
That is the start point of the our collaborative work. We start since the last 5 years tried to understand the historical process and the changing and its impact on the modern Negation, a transition of the social structure in Korean society.

426
01:16:18.000 --> 01:16:36.000
This is kind of a starting point that we can share our domain reserve to the or you. So participants are the including me.

427
01:16:36.000 --> 01:16:54.000
He's in Park. He is already in the joined the there and he the question several important things and I was a back on year, Kong Jiani, Aksang Jun, Apk Junzan, they are variety of mage, the expertise in historical science, economics and the physics and sociology.

428
01:16:54.000 --> 01:17:24.000
It's kind of without the some they really the convergence team. Yeah. So I just tried to convey just the main finding our main, finding or the main, our finding or the main, the main finding or the main, the issue we are now struggling, or the main, the, issue. We are now struggling.

429
01:17:26.000 --> 01:17:30.000
Or the main, the, issue we are now struggling. I try to 2 raising raises. First, why we are now struggling.

430
01:17:30.000 --> 01:17:35.000
I to 2, racing arrays. First, why we are now struggling. I took 2 racing arrays.

431
01:17:35.000 --> 01:17:46.000
First, why we, we started Patreon linear cessation and I tried to do the, and I tried to do the introduce the data, and I try to do the introduce the data, so on and so forth and try to do the, the data, Solomon and and try to, to, the data.

432
01:17:46.000 --> 01:17:55.000
Solomon and and try to, to, the, what is the important thing we have to handle in order to use the important thing we have to handle in order to use this historical data, we have to handle in order to use this historical data.

433
01:17:55.000 --> 01:18:16.000
It's related to selection of observation. Very complicated. I tried to do the show introduce the the process of how we handle the data and the final the analysis you need is the fiber generational lineage.

434
01:18:16.000 --> 01:18:17.000
We try to do the egojamine pattern and then the differentiation of the genealogy.

435
01:18:17.000 --> 01:18:44.000
How in in the in the complicated the interaction between the chosen societies, the institutions. It included the social structure and then kinship structure and then also digest the nature.

436
01:18:44.000 --> 01:18:59.000
Is so important to influence social arrangement and the Pippers response and then developing feminine strategy. So in this kind of intermingle of the social institution and the strategy.

437
01:18:59.000 --> 01:19:25.000
We try to do the patronized the pattern or the type of the generational lineage. In order to that, we are the implement color cluster analysis and then we find some very complicated the region so try to discuss about the

438
01:19:25.000 --> 01:19:36.000
Why we start, we studied the genealogy. Yeah. It would be that if I try to turn the introduce the chosen society.

439
01:19:36.000 --> 01:19:47.000
It is a patriarchal society. The most strong anxiety of the ordinary people is the lineage.

440
01:19:47.000 --> 01:19:56.000
Paternal energy. Most people want to retire to the succeeded Petri-linear lineage.

441
01:19:56.000 --> 01:20:09.000
That is a very strong that desire and very strong belief. So, but this paternality is so difficult to choose succeeded in biological sense.

442
01:20:09.000 --> 01:20:17.000
Do you agree? Yeah, so it is not just the phenomena of biological, you know, the outcome.

443
01:20:17.000 --> 01:20:31.000
It is that in the, the belief and then normalized and then institutionalized. That is the manifestation of Patana, the kingshi system.

444
01:20:31.000 --> 01:20:37.000
So the lineage that the lineage is kind of incarnation of the patriarchal kinship structure organization.

445
01:20:37.000 --> 01:20:52.000
This is 1 point that we focus on studying the lineage. You order to understand the characteristic over the Patriarch Kinsley system.

446
01:20:52.000 --> 01:21:05.000
Another thing is that the paternal disease is not is so difficult to continue. In order to that, perpetuate, it is very important to resource.

447
01:21:05.000 --> 01:21:21.000
First, power. So, stratification is one important element of the pattern or the the structure of the lineage.

448
01:21:21.000 --> 01:21:46.000
And also the population dynamic, this is really important for us. Even the previous researcher had developed a cumulative such a hugely are the finding about the characteristic of the petriolic patriarch Patriarch, the social structure and then the very flex of the social stratification.

449
01:21:46.000 --> 01:21:59.000
But it is not clearly that identified the relationship, interconnectedness among these family system, social stratification and population dynamics.

450
01:21:59.000 --> 01:22:10.000
This is element is not isolated. It's interconnected. Also, the natural disaster is one kind of very important condition.

451
01:22:10.000 --> 01:22:23.000
Chronically, the chosen society experienced the people's experience, the hugging the exposure of the infectious disease and the famine.

452
01:22:23.000 --> 01:22:34.000
So the government tried to find the solution to the relief of this distress. That is one kind of big momentum, this distress.

453
01:22:34.000 --> 01:22:50.000
That is one kind of big momentum, this distress. That is one kind of big momentum that is one kind of big momentum that social changing including the social changing including the social status and then the one kind of big momentum that social changing including the social status and then the or also the papers or or opportunity to the chancellor or opportunity to the social

454
01:22:50.000 --> 01:23:00.000
mobility. So this kind of the environment or this kind of interconnection is incorporated in the lineage.

455
01:23:00.000 --> 01:23:11.000
So we try to chew the find some this kind of interconnection in the in the lineage.

456
01:23:11.000 --> 01:23:24.000
Yeah, because of a time constraint, I just the jump to the data. Yeah. The Solomon support is kind of the record generalology of the Roiya family.

457
01:23:24.000 --> 01:23:38.000
So this is the record of the king or in Jordan Dynasty. Yeah. So the over the, over the running of the king, the Daoists.

458
01:23:38.000 --> 01:23:53.000
Every time the Oh, it's the work so to complement and then the established the genealogy of the royal family.

459
01:23:53.000 --> 01:24:20.000
The and also the the format of the recording and it's a changes over time. Because of the political interest to the solidified the Ruya family as well as influence though by the the Aristotle Aristotle, the prominent to families, the the the genealogy that the practice.

460
01:24:20.000 --> 01:24:34.000
So the briefly is saying that the main characteristic of the recording is the changing into emphasizing the petrile linear or the the line.

461
01:24:34.000 --> 01:24:47.000
So it emphasizing the the The Legislative. Let's do it on line and then decent the families the IR.

462
01:24:47.000 --> 01:24:57.000
So on the other hand the less the emphasize the the branchy family and the less influential family and then the illegitimate son or doctor.

463
01:24:57.000 --> 01:25:08.000
So if this is just a reflection of a patriarchal lineage so that the format had also changed it.

464
01:25:08.000 --> 01:25:20.000
Thanks for the tech support, the effort of a historian. Recently, the effort of a historian recently, the the effort of a historian.

465
01:25:20.000 --> 01:25:21.000
Recently the information of this genealogy was digitalized. Recently the information of this genealogy, the information of this genealogy was the information of this genealogy was the information of this genealogy was digitalized.

466
01:25:21.000 --> 01:25:41.000
Using this digitalized data, we, we, was digitalized. Using this digitalized data, we, can, employ the analysis of genealogy So it is a kind of the example of the material of the genealogy.

467
01:25:41.000 --> 01:25:55.000
So genealogy is the follow the petrile linear the format. So it is very selective and it is the missing fusion of the missing also occurred.

468
01:25:55.000 --> 01:26:07.000
So it the missing is not just a random, it is closely related to way of the recording. Yeah, we have to be very cautious about that.

469
01:26:07.000 --> 01:26:24.000
And also there are so many other person in interrupt or the dis descendant tip. So it also does shows the how difficult to do to continue the patio linear lineage.

470
01:26:24.000 --> 01:26:33.000
So it put the this genealogy into the cupboard or dysentery over the old discontent of the princess actually it is very selective due to the design and format.

471
01:26:33.000 --> 01:26:55.000
So all biological relations are recorded and also all the recordings are not likely biologically related. And there are some kind of the possibility of February, the recording.

472
01:26:55.000 --> 01:27:06.000
And also there are a huge, serious, of the, possibility of the, the, the censoring and life is, right sensory.

473
01:27:06.000 --> 01:27:23.000
Similar to other genealogy, the sensory. Similar to other genealogy, the most the record that the people are recorded, the ones that they survived at the until the marriage time so those who died before marriage, they just did not disappear.

474
01:27:23.000 --> 01:27:29.000
It's kind of a case of the left hand sensory and those who recorded it are mostly in nineteenth century.

475
01:27:29.000 --> 01:27:46.000
So they recorded or when they survived it. So that also created a right sensory in dealing with the decorate and in dealing with the reproduction.

476
01:27:46.000 --> 01:28:10.000
So it must be very helpful to deal with this data. So, in order to 2, the, the, the, egojamine, the pattern of the genealogy of using the overall with of geology that data we also take into account it unobsurated the data, we also take into account it unobsurated the

477
01:28:10.000 --> 01:28:19.000
cases. It is very important too. So using this data, we find, the finer, the, the unit is to make biological genealogy.

478
01:28:19.000 --> 01:28:34.000
It is a connect connection over the, the, the, that related to biologically parent and and the sun.

479
01:28:34.000 --> 01:28:38.000
In order to make this genealogically parent and the sun. In order to make this genealogy or we did a very having a work to, but the pre-processing data.

480
01:28:38.000 --> 01:29:01.000
The procedure. It included the conversion of the, the, the, the, the, person near information, the, the, bursts and destiny information from the Sexta January calendar into the Gregorian calendar.

481
01:29:01.000 --> 01:29:18.000
In this process also there are multiple minority mechanisms also yeah we did that So doing this, the process we encounter unfortunately large number of missing cases.

482
01:29:18.000 --> 01:29:39.000
And these missing cases is not random. It is a complicated interaction of censoring and also missing. So yeah, it also affects the observation trend.

483
01:29:39.000 --> 01:30:06.000
So it is a very careful What was making the the Bible, the genealogy in order to do the they find the pattern we find the pattern we measure the important characteristic of this genealogy.

484
01:30:06.000 --> 01:30:19.000
They get characteristic. Some of them are the average characteristic. It's a family press TG and the family is a reproduction.

485
01:30:19.000 --> 01:30:35.000
The Nature Digester is a, is the average characteristic over the 5 notes. You know, the in addition that the first the timing variable also to count it in order to the see the changing in this effect over the time.

486
01:30:35.000 --> 01:30:45.000
We also take into account the effect of missing probability. So the missing is not random. Is this a really cigarette systematically or the connected by the generation.

487
01:30:45.000 --> 01:31:05.000
So we the did the statistical model to estimate the probability of missing over birth or the deaths and they include the modality.

488
01:31:05.000 --> 01:31:17.000
This is just a general characteristic of the barrier work. The status means that the proportional will leisure to make sun.

489
01:31:17.000 --> 01:31:29.000
It is a very low. It isn't kind of the reduction of underrepresentation or the case of the missing due to the structure of the genealogy.

490
01:31:29.000 --> 01:31:39.000
The OPC is the proportion of the take taking, the opposite. So it is a 15% relatively high.

491
01:31:39.000 --> 01:31:50.000
It also the reflect the genealogy of the rural family. And the proportion of the exam passing in exam is kind of 5%.

492
01:31:50.000 --> 01:32:05.000
And the number of children is 2 point and number of sibling is a 2 point pole. It's a arthritis for us and it's proportional is a point 6 5.

493
01:32:05.000 --> 01:32:27.000
And the 5 births or 5 deaths is shows that the timing of the last generation. So in most concentrated nineteenth century, it reflects that most of the cases are the bone after the th century.

494
01:32:27.000 --> 01:32:42.000
And the we also measured the burst interoper between the server sequences generation. Average it is not much different and it is not much different and it averages 13 years like that.

495
01:32:42.000 --> 01:33:11.000
And wipe a number is a 1.1 and then PA means that the stage of the club, we are measured in quantile and in the missing probability of the burst is about 40% and missing probability deaths is 77% and also we are the link the information of the infectious DGs and then the

496
01:33:11.000 --> 01:33:38.000
feminine incidence from the from the NR of the dynasty to the, the, in, the, the cases, the, timing of the deaths or cases of the lifetime and measure the cumulative mobility exposure, okay, cumulative famine and incidence and also the incidence of morbidity, incidents of famine at the time of

497
01:33:38.000 --> 01:33:40.000
that.

498
01:33:40.000 --> 01:33:51.000
And, missing probability, yeah, I already mentioned that. And then lifespan is about the 48 like that.

499
01:33:51.000 --> 01:34:06.000
So the the result is like this. The we dated those second, the 2 stepwise, the cluster analysis because of the trade off of the missing and then the the of the variable.

500
01:34:06.000 --> 01:34:16.000
So first it's cluster is the variable. So first it's cluster is doing just using the information of a family prestige and the first information.

501
01:34:16.000 --> 01:34:31.000
The referencing the variance and the sum of the the the to compare the optimal number of cluster we decided that 3 cluster is the optimal number.

502
01:34:31.000 --> 01:34:53.000
This shows the result of the colostal analysis. 1, 2, 1, 2. So this is Figure I'll show some very clear trend over the difference of the lineage in terms of the family prestige and family reproduction.

503
01:34:53.000 --> 01:35:03.000
So the lineage with the more prestige or also the they are likely to be more productive.

504
01:35:03.000 --> 01:35:17.000
It is similar to the outcome of the when we added the variable but the observation limited. Yeah, because the region is a similar, so I don't have to skip.

505
01:35:17.000 --> 01:35:31.000
We found this encountered in duty with a reduction of the morbidity and I mean now in discussion I'd like to more edit on that.

506
01:35:31.000 --> 01:35:58.000
Okay, so I'm very good to go to the quadratic conclusion. So the main finding is that very strong relation of the family prestige and then family reproduction and the relation the family are the proportion of the family with the prostitution and the memory with more reproduction declined over time.

507
01:35:58.000 --> 01:36:22.000
If this trend is a real effect substantial trend, we, I, we like the 2, the razor, very important, the implication about the relationship between social structure and the population of the regime.

508
01:36:22.000 --> 01:36:32.000
As you mentioned earlier, the Jerusalem society is a characterized by partner or patriarch or petrol linear cancer system.

509
01:36:32.000 --> 01:36:46.000
And also very complicated stratification system. This is the stamp. Has the the researcher and reserve end of the berries squeezing the reproduction and reproduction not increasing the reproduction.

510
01:36:46.000 --> 01:37:12.000
It is compared to 2 other studies conducted in Japan. According to that, a study or so they, the original study emphasized that regional difference in family system and then the demographic of the outcome.

511
01:37:12.000 --> 01:37:29.000
So similar to the Korea, the region emphasizing the direct of the paternal linear kinship system, the demographic of the populations and the increase is stagnated.

512
01:37:29.000 --> 01:37:43.000
On the other hand, more of the foreignative, the family system, the demographic, the population grocery is is a continue and the opportunity also to increase.

513
01:37:43.000 --> 01:37:55.000
So that we rejected kind of the suggests a very important insight or to explain contemporary Korean societies phenomena.

514
01:37:55.000 --> 01:38:06.000
Family system is very important. And the social stratification is also very important. Earlier that the presentation when emphasized the Metropolitan.

515
01:38:06.000 --> 01:38:17.000
But Korea is also the case. Yeah, keep for anxiety. Desire. Maritukrasi and very authoritarian.

516
01:38:17.000 --> 01:38:27.000
Because of the petty reactor or the kinship system. Interaction of this condition. Sorry, to check.

517
01:38:27.000 --> 01:38:45.000
Not increase the opportunity rate. It is a kind of a substantial explanation. We delighted to share with you, but we also Take into I consider the impact of the selection of observation.

518
01:38:45.000 --> 01:38:55.000
Yeah. Just, the, considering the selection of observation, we can also do explain this picture of the track.

519
01:38:55.000 --> 01:39:15.000
So we, it is the next step. We have to much, very cautious, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, distinguishing, this count of, consolidating the impact of the substantial and the

520
01:39:15.000 --> 01:39:29.000
data. Thank you.

521
01:39:29.000 --> 01:39:33.000
Yeah.

522
01:39:33.000 --> 01:39:50.000
Okay. Thank you. So this is also a paper with a lot of information in it. But in my opinion, it's still lacks a bit of a red line.

523
01:39:50.000 --> 01:40:10.000
So a clear story. That you want to tell. So you start with say and you also ended here your presentation by saying that you show a contemporary career has so low fertility rates and that is something you want to understand from what it was what happened in the past.

524
01:40:10.000 --> 01:40:16.000
But, and if you look at your analysis, I would say you don't really get an answer.

525
01:40:16.000 --> 01:40:22.000
To that. So if I would now ask the audience here, OK, why does Korea have so low fertility rates?

526
01:40:22.000 --> 01:40:46.000
Could they answer this? Question. I think they would not be able to answer this. So, and I do have a suggestion, because somewhere in the in the paper you also say, in the beginning, the lineages may actually die out.

527
01:40:46.000 --> 01:40:52.000
And that is, something that has, is related to, fertility. So in some time there there are no new children in this lineage.

528
01:40:52.000 --> 01:41:05.000
But you actually select your you you do your analysis on lineages that are all of equal length.

529
01:41:05.000 --> 01:41:16.000
They are, they are all 5 generations long. So you seem to exclude those that don't reach the 5 generations for some time.

530
01:41:16.000 --> 01:41:33.000
What you could do is is actually make debts and large that so make a distinction between see where you can identify lineages that that ends and then see okay what are the characteristics of these Linux releases.

531
01:41:33.000 --> 01:41:43.000
And then you could look at, okay, what are the social characteristics? Are these the low status or maybe even the high status?

532
01:41:43.000 --> 01:41:59.000
But you can also look, okay, are these Do these families experience more of these disasters that you at And there I have also a methodological suggestion.

533
01:41:59.000 --> 01:42:06.000
So I will not go to the closer analysis, but I would. Identified this link is just myself.

534
01:42:06.000 --> 01:42:14.000
And then use these characteristics. For example, the the disasters and so to explain that. So do not include them.

535
01:42:14.000 --> 01:42:25.000
In your description of the lenses but keep them apart as variables and predict. The outcome with these characteristics.

536
01:42:25.000 --> 01:42:36.000
Okay, and then I have yeah small I don't know small but for people who are not from Korea it is sometimes a bit difficult to follow your story.

537
01:42:36.000 --> 01:42:40.000
It is sometimes a bit difficult to follow your story, it is sometimes a bit difficult to follow your story.

538
01:42:40.000 --> 01:43:02.000
So you should also make a decision. There's also something you, you call yak yok.

539
01:43:02.000 --> 01:43:11.000
I don't want to know whether I pronounce it correctly. It never explains. So people from outside of Korea have no idea what you're talking about.

540
01:43:11.000 --> 01:43:25.000
So, so look that you that you, explain the specific according your things to the people from outside.

541
01:43:25.000 --> 01:43:32.000
So the right. Maybe.

542
01:43:32.000 --> 01:43:39.000
Yeah, thank you. Thank you. So much, Mas. Yeah.

543
01:43:39.000 --> 01:43:53.000
Actually, II, I'm just hesitated to, to, link a contemporary issue to the way this sub project yeah and my colleague also to mention that it is too far.

544
01:43:53.000 --> 01:44:05.000
There is a yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah I totally agree so I am also agreed so I am also agreed that I have we have to be more clarified.

545
01:44:05.000 --> 01:44:18.000
So I am also agreed that I have we have to be more clarified. And or what is the domain of the thing we try to do.

546
01:44:18.000 --> 01:44:48.000
The question and it to answer yeah so it still I'm not clear on what is the how to explain this the binding to to to the contemporary the phenomena of the demographic changing but I just did the tabletably I'm just the right to say that the Korean has a very distinctive table, the characteristic of

547
01:44:53.000 --> 01:45:04.000
a family's truck system and also social stratification system. It included institutional and also some relief system.

548
01:45:04.000 --> 01:45:22.000
And, the PA or our system. The attitude in our system. So I try to try to link this the structure or the historical the characteristic.

549
01:45:22.000 --> 01:45:28.000
So later we have to do more to clarify. Yeah, I, yeah, yeah, we have to do that.

550
01:45:28.000 --> 01:45:58.000
Or so it is, also I your very important suggestion that we have a tool to analyze the unobuved or the missing cases people we did very long genealogy yeah it is a kind of a wonder over the the cases so 2 there are missing we did not analyze so this yeah next step try to do that and yeah

551
01:46:03.000 --> 01:46:28.000
other thing yeah I agree and also the writing is so bad. We have a 2 or 3 min, if you have a Yeah, so much for her very very very ambitious project and I really enjoy listening to your very very ambitious project and I really enjoy listening to your currentation.

552
01:46:28.000 --> 01:46:33.000
So actually I really enjoy listening to your currentation. So actually it's more like a suggestion because I don't know if you're listening to your currentation.

553
01:46:33.000 --> 01:46:49.000
So actually it's more like a suggestion because I don't know if you cited the see song camera on Campbell and Jim Slee paper because they have like ASR paper also study the petrol lineage growth and extinction so if I remember correctly they are finding they also use some very similar data actually like descendants of

554
01:46:49.000 --> 01:46:59.000
the royal families, things like that. So they find that actually So, so, so, so there are higher status, families.

555
01:46:59.000 --> 01:47:12.000
They are more likely to, that their population grows faster than others. But it's not because they, on average, have more sons, but because their family lineages are less likely to extinct.

556
01:47:12.000 --> 01:47:32.000
So I find that maybe their conclusion is a little bit different from yours and maybe you can find a way to reconcile with different findings in the literature and but I think you should definitely like side and read their paper because they are so relevant to each other.

557
01:47:32.000 --> 01:47:37.000
So, okay.

558
01:47:37.000 --> 01:47:41.000
Okay.

559
01:47:41.000 --> 01:47:49.000
Thank you for your Mayor interesting presentation. I have some questions for clarification so maybe I missed it in the presentation.

560
01:47:49.000 --> 01:48:03.000
Like, could you explain more, what is the social status and how it's how is it defined and as I'm used to this or the sentence of order royal family and is there like rank.

561
01:48:03.000 --> 01:48:17.000
Within this big plan and the second is. You included infectious disease and disaster but what about war I'm wondering War.

562
01:48:17.000 --> 01:48:19.000
Yeah.

563
01:48:19.000 --> 01:48:31.000
You can. Yeah, the status is the major by the person. Who are in lesion mate, the son.

564
01:48:31.000 --> 01:49:00.000
Yeah, so but the proportion is very low. So we just speculate that it is not real the proportion because of the because because the structure the format of a genealogy are emphasized more detailed information over the promo generator the line so the person who are not outside the promo generator or the restmate line they are

565
01:49:00.000 --> 01:49:09.000
likely to very less informative or the missing. So that reflect a very low percentage of the alleged by the sun.

566
01:49:09.000 --> 01:49:19.000
But yeah, the big penalty actually, prestige family, have a lot of it as a song on the at least you make the song as well as the restmate song.

567
01:49:19.000 --> 01:49:37.000
And so the correlation shows that the proportion of the illegitimate earliest tomatoes is also larger the lineage with the prestige the larger prestige and then the family reproduction.

568
01:49:37.000 --> 01:49:52.000
Okay. Also you may, what about the war? Korea society also the Joseph Dinas, it has a very several times a big, the occasion of the world.

569
01:49:52.000 --> 01:50:00.000
Also the seventh the Jason Dynasty's the huge transformation is triggered by the outbreak of the world.

570
01:50:00.000 --> 01:50:11.000
But this incidence is a kind of a the according to the is number of incidents It is not much big.

571
01:50:11.000 --> 01:50:30.000
But the the incidence of the family or instance of the DJs is a very opening of the recorded dinner of the dynasty so we used this record not the Record.

572
01:50:30.000 --> 01:50:40.000
It's the sixteenth century. It's about the late Jason societies are usually the weeds.

573
01:50:40.000 --> 01:50:49.000
We are the 30, in order to, yeah, yeah.

574
01:50:49.000 --> 01:50:59.000
So, did you write something about like adoption in the paper? Alright, anyway I have a question on that but I think it's time is already open.

575
01:50:59.000 --> 01:51:09.000
Okay. alright. Thanks for, Joining the session, I think we really enjoyed each paper.

576
01:51:09.000 --> 01:51:17.000
And thanks for that. Let's celebrate all these 3 papers. Thank you.