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okay. there people. I'm happy that you are all here and also. I'm happy also that this is that all presenters are really here in the flesh at Chelsea. And Lindy, will you please quiet

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the the, the, the, the former President and the the the acting precedent are

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quite noisy.

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So can I have your attention, please, for the military and politics in the 20 first century. And of course, if if you are a scholars in the field of military sociology, then you know that the tension between politics and military is always

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very strenuous, and it's always very special. Because, yeah, who who is really in control? Is it the civilians? Or is it the military? And nobody wants a military coup.

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but sometimes it happens, and sometimes you get very close. And sometimes military troops like the the Barknet group. drives up to Moscow and things. So this is a very, very recent and very actual really, really interesting topic.

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we have a presentation for from all over the world. So that makes it the more interesting also because

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everything things are happening and everything everywhere things are changing. So first, we have 2 presentations from self

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America. then we have a

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presentation from Canada, but it is about Mali so, and we have a presentation also from the Temitope, that is, from Canada, but

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and and then From Turkey, Onsol, Sikri, and then from Poland. We have Marek or Guard checks. sorry, and don't pronounce it well. But first, Cornelius Coning.

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yeah.

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it's just

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yeah.

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Need I? Do. I need to read it again? The that's okay. We opened the session also the previous session with the acknowledgment of country.

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 So I read it again. It would have been a Renee's job. But never mind, half of everyone gathered. I pay respect to the spirit. I like the spirit part of the country here in where we are meeting, I acknowledged the past and present

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Koolean nation, Orung Gary voir, as the sovereign people here to cultural knowledge holders who maintain and promote the norm, aboriginal law, customs and custodianship, responsibilities for a country and the people that country continues to sustain generation of the generation into the future. And now

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it's gone now, their skin for all of us. That's very nice. Garcia, Marcus, sentence very long.

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I recognize the important contribution that first nations thinkers have made to sociology, including challenges to our dominant ways of thinking. We thank all first nations delegates in the room today for and online.

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For their contribution to knowledge in the discipline.

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So

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let me now try to find my presentation. You just explained me, Gabriel, that I was not paying attention. Yeah.

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all right. it's already there.

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Okay, so

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so I will kick off this this panel with a sort of a general overview of civil military politics and the new Liberalism in Latin America. And

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let me get that.

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I've been doing this work together with my colleague the Also he's Emeritus Professor of Development Studies at the University. He couldn't make it to Melbourne, but last year we published this volume on Latin, American, military, and politics in the 20 first century

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on which this presentation is an elaboration with many

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Lucia's colleagues, we work on this topic with fascinating country cases. Celso was, of course, the author of Brazil a brilliant chapter.

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so I'll be referring to this, maybe one or 2 times. But this approach Tries to. So this subject tries to set a step forward and try to link this as we call it, new civil military politics in Latin America to the the issue of you, illiberalism or democratic backsliding, if you will.

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And so let's start a little bit with this concept.

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as many would argue today a Liberal democracy is under siege, not so much externally, but from the inside, especially notable after the hubris of the 19 nineties, the immediate post-co war era, the end of history, Francis Fukuyama, and so on.

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And nobody is talking about this anymore. Instead, democratic backsliding and related concepts are now in the debate

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and democratic back backsliding by recent articles, by Hagerton Kaufman, but also Lerman and Lindbergh, who talk about autocratization as a process is seen as a gradual and incremental erosion of democratic institutionally by incumbent elected, and mostly also civilian governments or leaders.

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and Lerman and Lindbergh. In a 2,019 article you can talk about the third wave of

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autocratization after a first wave in the interbellum in Europe.

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in the twentieth thirtys and the second one during the Cold war period mostly, but not exclusively, in the global South.

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And related notions are soft authoritarianism, electoral authoritarianism.

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and of course, illiberalism. And I'm not going to delve deeper into this debate. but just Apart from mentioning that we're talking about a gradual process of democratic decay, not a a breakdown! a breakdown of democracy, as Juan Lynz and Alfred Stephen called it

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Normally by incumbents. Using. And that's the interesting thing, or the worrying thing, often democratic or legal means had to eat up democracy, for within and even mobilize substantial public or popular support for this, and often in a context of polarization or threat perception.

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But while the

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oh, the camera can see me! Oh, that's not good! Oh, should see me! Oh, sorry! I have to look at 2 screens at the same time. Sorry for this. Yeah. The blessings of hybrid presenting

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 So while in this debate the overall tone, has been a moderately optimistic because procedural democracy does not totally sink below the horizon as it did in the 2 earlier phases of auto gratization.

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But another line of argument which Is that precisely when conservative populism, securitization, and framing the other as an enemy, as when that takes place under formal and unthreatened democracy. Then we come to a situation with which a killer of Bembber has called Democracy's nocturnal body and the Negro politics that this nocturnal body inflicts.

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And this is, of course, an approach that's decidedly more gloomy, and I argue that illiberalism, as in the case of Latin America, can substantially widen the terrain for the states of exception, that the Ma Beambo also talks about and bring this nocturnal body into the daylight. A. A a regional example, might be, in my view, a. bouquetos.

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recent hyper manodura against the gangs in El Salvador, with his state of exception, legislation.

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So in Latin America, you also, you see, despite Apparently successful third wave

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in Latin America, since the 1,900 ninetys, or the late 1,900 eightys. You also see many signs of the Liberalism expanding.

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While in the 19 nineties the debate was still about transitional frictions, like the role of memory how to accommodate the armed forces into democracy, and so on. Then, in recent periods the debate moved from a a democratic consolidation, and it's discontent.

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and more recently, even to violent democracy and to increasing the liberal character of regimes. And one way to look at that is to look at the human rights violations and violate violence as an index of Liberalism. I've been looking at the the recent annual Reports of Human Rights Watch, which also contains extensive Profiles of human rights violation.

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I'm not going into detail, but grouping them would use this

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typology of 4 fields in which citizen and human rights are, more or less systematically violated in Latin American countries related to gender, gender, violence, femicide, and sexuality like violence and repression against LGBT plus communities.

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violence and violation of rights, of social movements and activists like human rights workers. Communities against corporate interests, and so on.

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The third field of deliberalism is in the field of law enforcement, which, in the context of what violent pluralism and increasingly, Brains to the for Violent or repressive strategies and practices of law enforcement, including the militarization of public security, one

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and the rule of law, which I will come back a little bit later, and this in the end, may also sort of end up in the involvement of the State, formal informally in what we call criminal governance, and finally, the maybe the more classic form of autocratization, a political political persecution, political exclusion, and political repression. You see that in a small number of Latin countries today?

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 so what do the military have to do with that? In the the the volume that I just mentioned. We argued that we asked the question, To what extent? The political involvement of the military, political militarism, after the turn of the century is re-emerging, or is it merely a continuation of what

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we knew in Latin America? Let's say, half a century ago, from the sixties to the eighties.

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And our basic argument there is that there has been an important transformation that what used to be political armies like military that as an institution would take on politics as install. bureaucratic, authoritarian regimes implement a national security legislation and program of dirty warfare. This no longer is visible. Instead, you see

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a more diverse involvement of the military in basically electoral politics, with the exception of Cuba, and also Venezuela in recent years, in different arenas and in various ways.

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But It should be mentioned that the historical legacy and the institutional DNA of Latin America's military as being relevant for or interested in politics, make make present-day military involvement still imaginable and acceptable.

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not only on the for the military themselves, but also among pilot politicians and large significant parts of the the population

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in the book! We sort of look at that by grouping. Country chapters and the 4 typologies which I will not go into now, because that's not the aim of the presentation. Instead, let's

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try to answer the question to our extent. This

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new, supposedly new civil military politics also is a factor in the rise of a Liberalism in Latin, American democracy

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and

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in the democratic backsliding debate. The role of the military is not very prominent indeed. while first and second wave of autocratization to again cite Leerman and Lindbergh are seen as dominated by military groups and self groups, and which they call executive groups

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alongside foreign invasion. The third wave of democratic backsliding or autocratization is mostly driven by what is generally and vaguely seen as democratic erosion is almost like a defining something by itself.

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But important to note is that the main chooses or actors here are, The democratic, or at least civilian State agents and politicians themselves. Political militarism, as a concept is absent from this democratic, backsliding debate. So how can we square this with

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Our earlier statement that there is this new civil, military politics in Latin America are the military as an institution, driving democratic, backsliding, and illegalism in the Latin American region, and the short answer is a qualified No, or not directly at least.

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but military renewed involvement in politics in Latin America facilitates and supports the illiberalism driven by civilians in a variety of ways.

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and I listed The most important one here, and I will briefly say a few words about all of them before getting to my conclusions

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that the most dramatic evidence for military involvement in a Liberalism or Democratic black sliding would be if they would be pushing for regime change outside of the ballot box or the electoral agenda. And I think in the post 2,000 period we only see, 2 real cases don't do us in 2,009, and Bolivia in 2,019, but in both cases it was

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very different from what we saw in the sixties or seventies of the previous century. It was not the military taking power to establish themselves as to as the sovereign, or at least as the moderator, and Rolling out an agenda. It was more like like a veto coup or a promised group, as it sometimes called that temporary intervention, and very much on the invitation, or in collusion with so important civilian actors. A crucial involvement.

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Of the legislative, the judiciary, the business community in the media. In these both Both instances in Honduras and

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Bolivia, surprisingly in Ecuador, in 2,010, the military defended the constitutional government against a police let uprising the presidency of Rafael Correa.

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Much more common is the backstopping of illiberal practices and orientations

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of civilian governments by the military as a sort of a fallback position. You see that clearly in countries like El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and recently and hopefully, temporarily, also in Brazil. But we'll listen to a much more competent analysis of Brazil after this from Selzo.

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Yes, I will do that. Then, you see, all these the other modalities which are increasingly probably implicit in terms of the role of the military in democratic backsliding or illiberalism. And maybe I could mention the the front stage and backstage participation. Electoral politics is quite widespread.

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Certainly in countries such as Peru, Guatemala, also Honduras.

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the militarization of rule, of law, enforcement, and the securitization of social conflict. Maybe it is a a little bit of a stretch had to include it in a liberalism. But if a democratic state is also supposed to uphold citizenship rights than this kind of militarization of a key area of of public policy is a the for concern.

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And finally, maybe also what I sort of inspired also by Selzer's work, called here the feeding into authoritarian nostalgia, and a certain elected affinity, elective affinity with conservative populist ideologies and discourse. I say, of course, Brazil and the Bolsonaro, we will.

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and more about it. But this also clearly happened in El Salvador and the Bukayla, surprisingly in Uruguay with the Kabulu Geto political party now in the coalition, and surprisingly not happening in usual suspects. As Argentina, Chile, and Colombia, despite its protracted internal armed conflict.

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So this is very short and very brief, and it needs to be elaborated more. And to to conclude, I would say that there are 5 Things that could be mentioned about the role of

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that were my 15 min of the military in a liberal emerging newer Liberalism in the Latin America. I don't have to read them. I think these are the steps important here, maybe, that despite the past, that authoritarian past, their military again, or still are Among the highest, high, most highly trusted. Institutions in most Latin American countries.

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They are societies societally deployed in many areas, including emergency. Assistance. The local development had an old fashioned civil action, and especially stepped up also during the pandemic

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and

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At the same time, there's still this lingering availability of the military to be a moderating part or a tutelary force in politics. It's almost in the DNA and in some countries they combine that with with more mundane economic or political interests.

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and very much central, I think, to the connection between militarism and liberalism is the lure of the military factor. From the point of view of civilian politics. They always go there and knock on the barracks door, and they want the the military to help them out to backstop them, to overrule opposition, Congress to Supreme Court. You name it

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so I would like to to end with saying, Well, in the end. The military are there but a Liberalism in Latin America, or a democratic backsliding is very much a civil responsibility with military compliance.

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And that's

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thank you very much.

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Okay. the the next.

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The next will be to Chelsea case. Cornings has delivered a really good introduction, and I guess that Chelsea will elaborate on that in particular, for Brazil

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in particular, for the Brazilian case. I'm going to read in order to keep the right time.

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and it's very nice to be here today. I'm going to talk about the subject, which is not that pleasant. But let's go. It's not changing. Okay.

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but on on May 20, third, 2,021. Last year the President of the Brazilian Republic, Jaybo Sonaro, participated in a political rally.

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In real General Bosonaro, praised the conservative values and detective governors and mayors who agreed risk restrictions, restrictions, such as lockdowns, to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

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next to Bolsonaro, was active Dotty Army general Eduardo as well, former Minister of Health.

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between 2,020 and 2,021,

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as well participating without the prior authorization

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of their superiors, which is prohibited by military relations in Brazil. During the days following the event, the nation waited for the

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some punitive action by the army commander against would have said in his defense that he had not participated in a political act.

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and that he had only been invited for a motorcycle height.

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The argument, despite no being absurd, was publicly endorsed by Bolson, Harry, the President.

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So on June third, 11 days after the episode, the army command's decision was finally made public. 11 days. He said that there was no disciplinary transgression.

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and the file the case

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the arm commander so had finally submitted it no, to the will of the present of the Republic. Now, leaving aside the respect for the principles of hierarchy and this plane that must prevail in a state institutions such as the armed forces

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to understand the historical context and the historical relevance of this decision, we need to place it in a broader historical context. A little over 3 years later on April third, 2,018,

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on the eve of the trial of Abbas Corpus, by former President Lula.

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at the Federal Supreme Court of Brazil, the then commander of the army general with Wad village boas.

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He was the commander from

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2,015 to 2,018, made 2 statements on his account on Twitter. In the first he wrote in the current situation

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you can read faster than I can say. Well, the 2 Tweeters

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he made the public just hours before the final decision by the Supreme Court. and in the next day's session. No, the Supreme Court of Brazil rejected. No, the abyss corpus

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for all by 6 to 5 votes, and a couple of days later Lula turned himself to the Federal police and was arrested.

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He would only be released in November the twentieth 21, after 580 days in prison.

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 I did a very long lifestyle interview in 2,019 with the General. Phyllis Boas was the commander at that time.

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The interview led to the publication in 2,021. The book conversation with the commander, which had a greater great repercussion in the media, mainly because the General revealed that he had previously disgusted the text of the 2 tweets. There's 2 weeks

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with colleagues from the Army High Command.

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It was read as a threat

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to one of the powers of the Republic of the Supreme Court.

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but for him only a warning in the words of Villas boas.

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but I think they would represent the first explicit political intervention by the army in several decades in Brazil.

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With the tweets of 2,018,

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the dividing line was crossed between the military institution and the politics that had been maintained

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since they read democratization in Brazil in 1,985,

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30 years.

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What led to this change? To answer this question? I think it's necessary to go back

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in time a little bit.

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Since the beginning of the government of Duma, Joseph.

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President of Resistance, he took office in January the twentieth 11. There had been an increasing request from militants from far right groups for the return of the military to the political scene. Rousseff's second term, which began in January 2,015, and ended with her impeachment

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in May the twentieth 16 revealed the military the more clearly the work of the National Trust Commission between 2,012 and 2,014 catalyzed this dissactice fashion.

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 In the words of villas, boss, it was a stab

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in the back.

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Oh, this is his words in the book of the interview I did with him. According to Phyllis Boas.

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the work of the Commission through the Commission would have been driven by a feeling of revenge that left the wing individual system tragically positioned in the media or the academic award

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to maintain in relation to the performance of the army forces during the military regime in Brazil. coming from left to wing.

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political groups defeated in the untied subversive. No struggle.

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They do have, however, in the view of the military, won the warfare memory in Brazil over the period.

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the losers just became the winners. In this dispute over the historical narrative.

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The most striking example of this military reaction would be, or, if you, in Portuguese's book, on the contrary.

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Read backward it. It was designed as a response by military personnel linked to the repressive apparatus of the military regime, to publications such as Brazil Nevermore, which is about no, the repression in in Brazil, Mun Cam. Ice

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or view was secretly prepared during the first civilian government after the end of the military, but it would only be published in 2,012.

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It had, however, circulated informally by extremely right. When groups, including many military personnel in the reserves who lived in their careers during the military regime. The militancy of these groups to reveal the the true history, as they said, resulted in in several books, such as The Suffocated Truth.

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This is also narrow, showing.

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This suffocated truths! The history that the Left does not want to Brazil to know by Coronel Oster was a recognized as torture in Brazil

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 It is relevant to note that in 2,016 the then Federal deputy. Congressman Jahibosonaro went vaulting in favor of the impeachment of Duma Rousseff

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said, in the plenary of his Chamber of Deputies in Brazil, that he was doing so, voting in memory of Coronel, or

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the terror of tumor Rousseff Timorousse was arrested and tortured during military.

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I read as President Bosonaro would qualify you to as a national hero.

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Well.

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these examples illustrated its survival over decades of an underground anti-communist collective memory, largely maintained by the former military, linked to the repressive, repressive, sorry apparatus of the military regime. This memory emerged with force in recent years.

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and is publicly presented as a correct a version along with Bosonaro's rise to power.

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But it should be wrong, I think, to see in the military a version

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to the work of the National Truth Commission. Just the effect of a traditional older anti Communist rooted in generations of military personnel. The reserves, etc. does but influencing the military person now, because this anti communism is was joined by strong a strong danger and critic

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about the political correctness.

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notably this expression, political, correct, next appears 7 times in the interview with Villas Bos on his initiative. It was not my questions

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ask about political correctness, but he raised this question 7 times during the interview. The aversion to political correctness can in body criticism of of politics of different types identity, gender environment, and Jesus people, human rights. Everything can fit into this political correctness

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and finds wide repercussions in the reception. In the conservative discourse of the right in Brazil.

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 In this a renewed version of anti-military anti-communism, military anti-communism, the Revolutionary War.

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It remains alive, but now incorporates through the critique of this political correctness the dimension of a cultural war.

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Gremshan war that would have developed from the Marxist thought of Ontario grams! Political correctness would be a fundamental instrument in this cultural war.

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Why not? Oh, I'm sorry.

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The reaction provoked by the words of the National Truth Commission, therefore, is the result of the combination between traditional military anti-communism. It is underground memory.

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And this new vision of a cultural communism. how could test that happen. I'm going to cast the sparks about the formation of of Bosonaro at the the the Military Academy, and no he was.

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He left the army as as the captain, after several disciplinary problems, and who was elected, you know, a city council burned down several times as a Congressman.

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and finally he was

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elected as present. I did the research at the Military Academy just after the graduation of his generation. I did the field work for my masters in the Eightys.

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and he graduated at the end of the seventies. So this generation actually came to to the power. I can elaborate more about that. But his colleagues, who took the main positions in in Brazilian politics. During

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also on our government, the same generation.

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They followed the same rules. They lived, in a word, completely apart from the civilian word as they said.

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So I think that effect over 3 decades of this, no detachment and a high degree of self recruitment among the military in Brazil. In the beginning of the the 1990 S. We had 60% of the cadets at the military entering the Military Academy, sons of

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military. So

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this took no, this group, apart from the civilians, and feeling, of course, superior to the civilian world, and the democratic governments choose not to matter with the military.

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No, give some money for them to buy things. Let's no have a special retirement, law, etc. And after 3 decades we had it out that so that's me.

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Erez Agmoni can trust that 30 something years ago, and this word of the military family in Brazil they live in a completely, and it receives a huge country. So the the officers are all moving from different parts, so they keep, you know, their sociability and their links into the institution itself 150

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erez agmoni. Not talking about this. But that's us both. Sonaro. At the beginning of his campaign at the Military Academy, graduation of a group of cabinet at the Military Academy in Brazil, though he was the only one to push for the right and to defend the military regime to defend the torture in Brazil one

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and things like that. You are seen as kind of folkloric.

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let's say the only from the far right in Brazil, but we would see a joint. That's the increase of military! No! In in in positions during Bosonaro's government. No, he called all his friends from the Military Academy, and I don't have but

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that with

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this period we end what we call the new Republic of a certain

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sorry. Okay, so that's it. But at the end they lose ha! Lose for Lula, and we had an attempt of coup in Brazil

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with the invasion of the tree

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Powers Buildings Supreme Court, the Congress.

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and the Presidential Palace in

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well, we we're still under investigation about that. But it was a very seamless attempt of who, involving several military. No things are going into the the Ddd investigation process and judiciary process. But I'm talking about a very serious. This is the most striking. The coroner, commander of the Presidential Bag battalion president, scholar battalion, his only missions to protect the President.

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He tried to stop the police.

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There is a video about that. No shocking from my resting the invaders.

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They're nice people.

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he's screaming, and the police is no saying. Shut up

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for a

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a commander of the battalion. Quite well now there is this movement, this investigation in Brazil. And that's it. I'm sorry, for

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I could talk much more

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about that. But because no thanks really for controlling me. Otherwise I could say what that? please.

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Mr. Abbott, will you.

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for your presentation next presentation? That will be this one

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file missing.

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It is.

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Yeah, I think you can. You can just give me like that. That's okay.

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Yeah, just that. That's fine. Okay.

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okay.

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well, thank you very much. It's Abu BA. From Northern Ireland University. and it's a pleasure to be with all of you here to talk about.

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I guess. the demise of democracy, liberal democracy.

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not just in Africa, but everywhere. So welcome to this show.

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 they, my people is, I'm gonna be hopefully within time. So I'm going to talk about me for regimes and home and security in West Africa.

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It is a general idea, but I'm true in drawing mostly for more. 2 countries, Mali and Guinea.

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That somehow exemplifies! These problems.

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and I think The context or the the kind of like the general issues here is that we have seen.

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you know, growing attacks on various that is, democracies common that talk in various parts of the world from the United States, you know. But America, as we just saw, and you know Europe, and also, of course, in Africa. You know, Democrats have been struggling.

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And one of the important things that is important to note is that our

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you know, this happens within the context of to some degree the failures of democratic systems. I'm not in totality, but suddenly, in terms of delivering various kinds of things security. Social economy kind of goods it doesn't necessarily have to be a to that. Feel everywhere. But suddenly, in some, in in, in some paths. So that's provide a kind of context

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now in of course, in Brazil, and not a place, but in a in in the African context. where human security issues becomes much more serious. I mean, we'll also see the actual involvement in the military in coups and taking over governments, and couldn't put hoping to restore or to build back tanks

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But we know that of course the military is not good in doing that either. So hence we run into general problems. So this is the general kind of context of what I'm trying to like, I guess present here in terms of the interconnections between

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you know, Democrat what I call democratic failures

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and human security. And the emergence of the military as a kind of like a player within this context.

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So. broadly speaking, the issues here. If you think of democratic transitions again, most in the African context, in the 1,900 ninetys.

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there's this hope for the emergence of democracies across Africa, and as we know, most of those, if not all of them, have actually ended in either some kind of form of pseudo democracy.

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or outright. you know a field of the Democratic system. So in Mali we have a military regime in Guinea we have a military regime and many other places. You have kind of fake democracies, so to speak. I mean joining the bad work for the other people.

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And the human security issue is, I think it's very important. I mean, they are very confident. And again, I'm drawing here largely from, you know

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the walks on civil walls, you know. the one to I mean, kind of connected going back to the one you us live here and you UN involvement. And so so the the idea of how much you could have actually evolved. in a way that actually, we understand that

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in many, in in some cases, States or countries are not able to defend or provide a secure minimum security for their people. So then, you do have these emergence of human security security situations which, of course, now

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joins with all kinds of things environmental issues. I want terrorism, and I'm sure for but the the. In a sense, I mean human security, in a sense, is a. It's a failure of the state, that is to say, when the State is actually not able to provide the most basic things that is supposed to do. And and that has, of course, implications for how we understand governance and democracy, and in any in between the end

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the Todd issue here is about the role of the military the military and the military interventions again, as we saw from Brazil and and and Latin America. you know. they are different routes through which the military can come in They can trump. They can come from the front door. They can confront the back, though, or but essentially I mean the the idea.

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and in the and the in the 2 cases here, guinea and Ivory Co. So Guinea and Mali, and many of the African countries, I mean, they come through the front row the classic way they come and arrest the guys and take them, you know. But so this is And when you think of the military and the military interventions, I think it's important to understand the issue of popular support, like where the public is

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because, ironically, in many cases, the public supports those things. Not necessarily we support them for long, but at least in that instance, or in that moment. I mean, you do so. So it does the general things there.

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I think the questions that are what action? you know, as we think about these issues. generally, is what is really democratic failure. I know that many of us, I mean, we have funds of liberal democracy. We believe in democracy and so forth. but I will urge people to understand that

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democracy, or more precisely, variance of a Liberal Democrats, should not be left of the hook. Are they to have problems?

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I think you know, we need to. we shouldn't really just assume that, you know. it is good at this, I think we we shouldn't give liberal democracy a past now. I'm not saying that the other things are good either. But I think we have to. We have to hold liberal democracy to account, to understand why. The other kind of

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what forms of systems I imagine or great.

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So that's so to me, I'm really interested in what is democratic failure now, in the African context is very simple. It means that we you really don't get a successful democratic transition you get, you know. Elections that are not credible. You get All kinds of shenanigans, And so forth. So, in a sense, you really don't.

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You know you don't really pass, or to what I guess my friends and others have called the consolidated democracies that are actually going in decline. So but but I think so. Maybe it's even much better to talk of the feel of a democratic transition, so to speak. But nonetheless, I mean, there is a process, you know. Yeah, people get elected and somebody come and certify the elections. What it's a UN, or all your and your entity, and you know, and the rule for 5 years or 6 years and decidable, they elected so this sort of thing. Okay?

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but so yeah, so what is democratic failure? And the other thing, also that drives. This is our military coups. Pre get by the moon. So what really triggers me? A a military cruise, I mean. I know that everybody wants powers, you know. really, police! Military officers and whatnot. but I think it is important to ask really what triggers? Military course, because sometimes

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For lack of a better word, I mean, there may be legitimate, or at least socially valuable reasons why somebody needs to intervene. so I mean, when you have somebody who claims to be a Democratic elected, and don't be like a Democrats. Somebody has to kick them out

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Well, maybe it's a military, but but I think we do have to ask the question, what triggers really? you know, what our military calls are triggered by democratic failures and potentially it is,

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Now, of course, at least in the question of how do democratic failures impact human security? And I think this is the connection here between human security and democratic feel it is what what I'm much more interested in, and this goes a little bit beyond. you know the cases that we discuss in. Let them you know, Brazil, the United States

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kind of like a Ukrainian or in a business of things. So really so I mean, talk of the impact on human security in a in the context of you know.

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the of, you know, our law and order.

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And of course the final question here would be, do democratic regimes enhance human security. So somebody failed. Somebody said, I'm going to fix it. Why do you? what happens? Well, maybe maybe they 2 feel so. But so that's the the general kind of questions and the arguments that are 3 kinds of arguments that actually write this work.

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One is that, of course, I think. Military coups are often welcomed by the by the public! In countries that have experienced democratic failures or failures with democracy. So And I think this is important to note, because When

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when military people come into power

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in most cases they don't use guns they don't like. I mean, they don't fight accounts, I mean they the you see people joining them on the street book in a fast and Mali, I mean, like. So so my, there's some that's something that tells you that actually, you know. that speaks to that. That is this idea that? Well, maybe I mean that is why do the people are welcome. So I think it's important to understand that. the second point I think I want to move is that now in such countries, of course.

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to to a human security challenge the experience of mentally human security telling is even under military role. And hence, so in a sense, it's the the person the problem doesn't go away. But the the trigger, for actually, for the military interventions keeps on persisting. So I think it's a they feel to provide useful insight into how we understand? you know. well, democratic finish. But also to understand how home and security issues continues.

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And the final kind of argument here is about a So when the talk of democratic failures which is manifested in various forms of political violence versions of the legitimate, so forth. Ultimately, I think I'm really interested here on the question of legitimacy. So

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elected governments. However, they elected they claim legitimacy because couldn't good. They have some kind of electronic process. How do military regimes create? you know, claim legitimacy because they're also actually in the coming. This. they get support from the people, at least the masses in the street. So this is I made a distinction here between between the kind of like democratic legitimacy. And actually, charismatic kind of like it. Legitimacy, which the which minute for we need this gain.

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Okay, that's good. Yeah. But for the problem with military regimes is that because their own legitimacy rest on charisma. It means the military leaders have to maintain charisma, and too often. that is where

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you know, they also wanted to problem, because in a sense, the men I don't really are not that freely, really charismatic, because, to begin with, but in a sense, when they come in I think it's a rest on some kind of So so it really sent us on the ability to maintain some kind of charismatic you know.

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the theoretical perspective I'm drawing up on here again the barrier notions of legitimacy and domination. the state, human security discourses systems of authority, democracy, you know all those things that we familiar with. And there's a one concept that I'm working on localized security you know which out of our colleagues, but essentially the the intersection here between human security and democracy. It really raises the beyond just West African situations.

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He raised this discussion of the interconnections of our security issues. The interchange between the the local and the global dimensions of it. And mal is a perfect example. Because

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when you look at the traditionally, everything is local, everything is global at the same time. So so I'm really playing with this idea of globalized security to understand this intersection between you know, human security and a democratic kind of like, you know, challenges again, it's not just in this work, but in many other works that I'm doing. So that's the kind of the historical overview, I think. you know, everybody can read those things.

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I don't want to spend too much time on those things. But When you go to the the histories of Mali and Guinea is similar story with some also, both of them again coming from French colonial rule, you know. the same part you know. dictatorships one party military regimes in Guinea. One of the worst form on the secretary

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in Mali and others Those things collapsed again. Those were like a bout of dictators, you know, like everywhere else, those things collapsed in the 1,990, so to speak, the wave of democratic transitions. Okay, and

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that democratic transition. now the interesting thing is that with that democratic transition? you know, you have the imagination of what is the pseudo democratic transition really didn't happen

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properly. In other words, not this can be a separate talk of why, but essentially the effort to apply liberal democracy in a multi-ethnic countries do not work. I mean, I I'll leave that for a separate discussion. But but Those were all failed democratic transitions, and hence It generates these democratic failures, which then In the case of Mali, the war in Libya

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fuse the other things it creates jihadi and other kinds of conflicts which then prompted, of course, the military. So you have this kind of very tradition in which needed a military and not a democratic systems. I I actually able to maintain human security, so to speak. I'll conclude here just with some few take away points and

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The first one is just to really for us to think about democratic decay and authority Ryan is in that is, we really need to think about democratic decay, that is, whether you have. If we'll blow it consolidate democracy like in the Us. Or Brazil, and how that decays under the rid of phrase and other kinds of things, or whether you have African cases where you haven't really fully consolidated democracies.

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The second thing is about our military populism, and In a precarious nature of charisma. Charisma is really a charismatic authority is a very precarious kind of things for most of the muse regions. So I think it's a very important thing, and the last thing that but take over here is about Securely still knit. So human security situations often get into stalemate. Nobody wins Ukraine, Eurosia, whatever. Wherever you fight, nobody wins, and when you have steel nits.

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you keep on getting this kind of like. you know, it breeds more fusion of global and local insecurities into what I call localized security. Thank you very much. And the for today discussions. Thank you.

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Semi-topia. Do you have a presentation here.

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Click here. this one. Yeah.

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I'll just find out. Okay.

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okay, it's lovely. Okay, floor is yours. Thank you very much.

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Wonderful. thank you. Everyone. My name is Stemi Topo Real. I'm a professor at the University of Alberta, Canada, and I was speaking on the military and national politics. The civilian military leadership, interest, convergence, thesis.

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Now I'm drawing on Boko Haram, the ludic on Boko RAM, and in my work in relation to Boko RAM, I'm assuming most of us, if not all, are familiar with that terrorist group. There's been a lot of walk on this terrorist organization. It's it's root causes its connections to previous Islamic militant organizations. It will be just ideology, training.

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strategies, and so on and so forth. However, there's been, it can't attention to the militaries that are, in fact.

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fighting against Boko. So there is in concentration on the terrorist organisation, but not the militaries that are combating the terrorist organisation. And this is where my research comes in it. But interestingly, I also started up studying in the

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terrorist organization, but then realized that the dynamics of the military fighting against this organization were, in fact, a a critical variable in trying to understand the persistence of this terrorist organization, and how we may understand the situation that's unfolded. Now, what we know about the military state forces fighting against this organization generally comes from 3 main sources, reports by human rights organizations such as

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Communist international videos and other statements on social media, usually by dissatisfied soldiers. And of course, media reports on poor equipment, poor funding, and so on, and so forth.

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Now the literature of costs on African militaries in general of the fairly rich and that of the Nigerian military is also fairly robust. It goes way back multiple decades. I I don't have the time to go through all of those, but I'll just emphasize. the fifth point of the civilians of ethno, religious loyalties in Corbio, carto practice and limited professionalism.

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Now.

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this particular study that I'm sharing today focuses on 2 main questions. First, what are the experiences of soldiers who are fought against Boko Haram some front line troops. And, second, what can your experiences teach us about the seeming capacity of the Nigeria military to defeat Boko Haram and ensure security. This is a qualitative study. Interviewed 24 non commissioned soldiers in the Nigerian army. Of course this is

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a very small sample, or you consider that thousands of soldiers have been deployed. But I'm sure you also know the soldiers are not the most easily accessible people, especially when you're dealing with the rank and file, and, in fact, I had a much easier time interview in the general than I did with the with the non commissioned folks, and of course the main inclusion criterion was that a. They were an engine B. They were in part of the the military.

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the Nfc. That they had done at least one deployment in the war against Boko Haram. The broader study for which it comes, which is a book land study actually involves over 170 individuals, mostly human rights activists

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who have part of the Bring Vak our girls movement a movement that I'm sure many of you are familiar with that was found following the kidnapping of nearly 300 High School girls in Nigeria in April of 2,014.

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Now I'll go through a few of the themes and then draw some broad conclusions. I think. Number one for my interactions with the soldiers. The antipathy towards what they consider the Rubbish Mission.

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I found very quickly that the soldiers did not believe in the mission, and that this was tied to 3 key interrelated elements. First, they've got suspicions about the sponsors and godfathers of Boko RAM, a second. They are upset about the patronage system that underguard a deployment into key positions in the military and the war theatre, and third, there was a feeling amongst all of the non commissioned folks

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interviewed

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that the war was being prolonged deliberately because it had become the money making machinery for the political and military elite.

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Now and here is a quote for one of those I interviewed, and he is talking about the integrity of the system being absent, and perhaps more telling me the the idea that the more we die, the more money they make, that this was just a want to make it a venture for their bosses.

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Second port of morale. And now this has 2 main strands, fossil welfare on the war front, everything from Venetia, information about deployment to transportation and welfare, and so forth, and rehabilitation after deployment, and second, and perhaps just as tellingly the treatment of the families of the Congress who have died in battle. This was a particularly sole point for many of these soldiers.

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and here one of the female soldiers involved, and that I interviewed speaks of

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the way the family members of their commerce. What died at the walk for they were being treated? Are. They were sent away from the barracks sometimes within a few months, and the the delay in paying the entitlements off their departed family members, and the suffering of those family members, and despite having sacrificed their lives to going through this this problem.

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Now, third, what I call the bifurcated provision of military hardware, much of what we we had heard up until this particular study was that there there were no equipment, and where there was equipment. Well, we were obsolete, unserviceable and usable, and so on and so forth. But I argue in my work that this, in fact, is is a function of ethical selection

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mit Ctl, and essentially taking the one's own experience as the only reality out there. But, in fact, it depends on whom you ask and what time they will deploy. So so for us

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that specific unit, that that in the video has served the specific period of their deployment and the agency of their commanders, their capacity to negotiate a space for themselves to ensure that they've got all the supplies that they need. So there was, in fact, no blanket, lack of equipment or on service of equipment. It's a function of the duration. How long, what unit? And so on.

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And so far. And here our a soldier testifies to what I've just said number 4, intelligence leaks and and sabotage. Now again the media had been a wash around the leakage and intelligence, and selling intelligence to Boko RAM and sofa, and generally the the senior folks. The commission officers were generally blamed for these leaks.

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but I argue that that is, in fact, quite simplistic, because in reality it's a manifestation of the toxic politics in the military. So it goes beyond just transactional issues. It's it's a function of the terms of politics in, in, in the military, and specifically link to the 2,015 Presidential elections which we' at the Pdp.

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People's Democratic Party against the then main opposition party, the All People's Congress, which, by the way, is now the governing party, and has governed since that 2,015 election which they warned. This was the first time that a governing party lost a Presidential election in the history of Nigeria, and this is relevant because senior military officers were bifurcated. They were divided very strongly into

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and ABC. Offices, and there was open manifestation around who belong to what party, and of course, that shift, who got what, in terms of allocation of slum positions in the military.

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once served in general, who was at this particular time during this interview in 2,015, the Nigerian Government's main face

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in the war against Boko Haram. He was responsible for defence information at this point that there was such a level of sabotage in that military that they could not depend on it at that period, if they were to be successful in that lack, partly to get the mercenaries mainly from South Africa and sulphur to help with the war against Boko Iran

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now, and some other. quote from a retired general again, this was in 2,015. The fifth point concerns suicide and model suicide in. In. In the military. Again, in the war theatre there have been all kinds of patterns that have been reported, but nothing systematic in terms of helping us to understand the underlying variables. Why were soldiers committing suicide? Why were they killing their superior officers

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and killing themselves as well at this war theatre, and I find them, in my analysis, 6

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major variables. So things like length of deployment, the traumatic experiences that have had on the battlefront

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mit Ctl. And rehabilitation services, but also personal tragedies that quite frankly had nothing to do with the military, but just circumstances that that happened to some of those individuals. And here, if, again, a few quotes as we got some of these 6 variables, so 250

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the length of stay and and and soldiers. He argued about the idea of keeping somebody at the warfront for 4 years that they could go mental if you would keep them at at at the war front for for that long. And of course the traumatic experiences that they had in this particular instance, a female soldier talks about literally packing the dead bodies to

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off their their congress that have begun to decay, because Boko Aram had poured a seed on them, and that when you do this the first time, the second time, and how it can affect you Mentally that this was out of the background to understand, and suicide and modest. You side in this war against Boko Iran. Now

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theme number 6 concerns corruption. Again, the media was always speaking about this. A global media. Egyptians would talk about the corruption in the military without really getting into the texture or the nuances and subtleties of of this corruption. Here I find 10 manifestations of corruption in relation to

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to the war. against what? Korea everything from inflation as a number of soldiers at the various military formations to graft and corruption in the release of book or am suspects. And so again, I can't go into any details in the interest of time. 250,

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4 min.

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Yeah, I timing myself here, too. So now, why is this important? Especially in relation to counter-terrorism generally, of course, the voices of non-commissioned soldiers, and, you know, rarely heard the, I think.

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socialize into this very immediate structured arrangement, and the camaraderie in the military, the discipline, and so forth also, and ensure that they don't speak up when these kinds of things begin to manifest, but in instances where they do speak up, despite a lack of a fictional sanction

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that I think calls for really listening

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to what? In fact, they have to say. So this more, wasn't it? To Jo? I argue, my work provides a useful guide for understanding this. Now the prevailing perspective in the small world's literature happens to be the bureaucratic, organizational model which essentially suggests that military leaders tend to prefer a persistence of war over and above termination of war. In other words, political leaders are responsible for withdrawing from war in the absence.

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One outright victory that's not like come from the military leaders, but it will come from the civilians, but the military leaders may adopt a withdrawal option only after this pleasure from the political leaders now, but when this, the very existence of the State or the society has been fighting, then the military may take a head stop in terms of wanting determination of war. Now

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the Cochran, who writes back as far back as 20 but 14, speaks of this presumed preference of the military for persistence of small wars, and gives what it considers an alternate model for understanding the persistence of war, and he focuses on what he calls a professional institutional model of military leadership motives. Essentially his focus is on institutional legitimacy

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that the military leaders will favor the termination of war over and above resistance

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because of an institutional legitimate motive. When the reputation, when the survivor of the military is restricted and they will favor determination.

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of war now. But I argue in my work that, in fact, these 2 models are presuppos, a relatively monochromatic, monolithic military that's working towards the same goal, and therefore they that presupposes that the military exists in this non religious and post ethnic kind of society, and therefore

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it underestimates the divisions within the world's branches of the military, and, of course, that this military does in fact, exist as a my caucus of abroad. Our society now.

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and of course this model is also presupposed that both the political and military elites are pursuing the national interests rather than their personal interest, or religious or ethnic interests. And, third.

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these 2 models fail to grapple with the contours of the development, the particularities of under development, and the sheer absence of this sort of ideal typical Vbarian type of state. And of course, the sort of the post colony are not put into consideration

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now, and of course these 2 models do not grapple with the divisions that may, in fact, exist within the civilian population, and the contentiousness of what counts as public support or opposition to a war because public support the opposition can, in fact, be mobilized. Think of the Iraqi war and the level of a public support for the war in Iraq at the very onset, even though that quickly changed

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as a war. We at Tesar, and, of course, for the professional institutional model of military leadership.

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It presupposes that institutional legitimacy is a thing that is desirable, and I argue that that is not always, in fact, a priority for military leaders. So I propose in my work what I call the civilian military leadership, interest, convergence, thesis.

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and this thesis states that civilian and military leaders will favor, directly or indirectly, the persistence of a small war. This thesis has 5 main propositions first, but military leaders are, in fact, partisan loyalists, who all the opposition to the instrumentalisation of political party affiliation, the geographic origins, the religious affiliations, and so on.

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And so forth. They are not always necessarily the very best in their cohort. They are selected because of. Sometimes they know what regions they come from, and in in in many societies you have to create ethnic balance, remove all of those that you meet. When you take over power, replace them with people that you believe you can trust. Second.

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civilian leaders will utilise a small war to control the national purse. To win the next election, to suppress the opposition, and for their military counterpart. It is a basic part of essentially preparing for retirement.

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and of course, number 3, both sets of leaders tend to focus on maintaining appearances rather than winning the war. And so in in one of the papers I have written. On this. I go into details about evidence around the coalescence I'm I'm wrapping up

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now. I argue that the more protracted and unwinnable the war becomes, the more noticeable. The symmetry, you notice are coming together, a core, less sense of the perspectives of the 2 sides and the they? There's a level of uniformity in their standpoint, as the war is prolonged. Lastly, I argue that the national engines and military legitimacy are not, in fact, major considerations for both civilian

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and military leaders in this context. And I and I argue my work. There is a need to try to apply this to other contexts, particularly in post-colonial spaces. around the world. but I've just shared our snippets from 2 publications that are already out. One was probably in African affairs. Some of the may be familiar with this journal. And of course The most recent is the one that just came out in armed forces and society.

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this year. and on that note I would like to thank you for listening.

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Yes, because we are running out of time I would like to ask the next presenter that is unseliev from Turkey.

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And oh, this is

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this one. Actually.

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it's it's it's loading. Yeah, thanks. You're making it easier for all of us. Good morning. All this is a professor from Austin. Technical Universe Ankara Turkey, very nice papers and presentations in the session hope to keep the momentum with also this representation of ours.

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Yesterday we have shared with the my colleague, Professor Ginger, the junior educational system in Turkish Armed Forces, which was motivated by Christians, called for book chapters.

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and this presentation and paper was also motivated with the

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call for book chapters of my friend Abu Bass, a on globalized security. So when they call for bookchat rascal, we we in my friend it our collage, a research assistant in international relations in in the Medical in Middle Eastern Technical University.

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thought what to write about it. So we have found that the Turkish intervention in the Armenia and Azerbaijan. A war naval war would be an example and a good case for that localized security issue

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to get the puzzle the audience before starting. Can I ask you a question? Is there anyone in the room who have not heard

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the nearly 2,020 war

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between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is called Nagorno Karabag war.

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Is there anyone who have not heard it?

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Well, thanks to this audience, because we have received the feedback from one of our receivers that which is very normal, and he or or she I don't know is that that I have. I heard it the first time in my life could be. But I just wanted to get the puzzle. The audience,

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The motivation of the

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book is, try to understand the fusion or the intersection of the domestic and external interests and issues regarding international security.

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Okay, we thought that that the turkey's intervention in that war could be one example for that. And if we have a based on 2 assumptions like domestic politics, is related with foreign security, policy, and agenda of Turkey, and the second assumption of us was the re regional conflicts have also an impact on issues of international security and

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E, I will be trying to summarize it. But from the beginning we can say that the In. In the in this analysis we have found that it, Turkey has intervened in this conflict to deter the feature conflicts, and to project power in the future for some international negotiations.

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 there are some.

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The theory is that I'm also a professor of business management. And we have the word globalism.

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the thinking global but acting local. But in that area it is something yes, related, but not as the same as this one is with the increase of the communication transportation economic ties. Yes, there is a understanding of global word. But also there are some criticism to that

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that the the local and global concepts are not a discount on me or not. A contrast between these 2 things, and some scholars say that they complement each other, and they go with the help of each other.

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So we tried to understand why the third party states, like a Turkish intervention in the Azerbaijan and Armenia issue involved in the conflicts. And why does Turkey aim to increase its international prestige

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with intervening the conflict in the Azerbaijan and Armenia issue? And this was a case-based paper which we tried to produce.

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we, after the the wing of Ussr it. Those 2 countries in conflict have declared their independence, and after that cold war and dissolving issue of Ussr that happened some conflicts in the region, and we may say that the Azerbaijan and Armenia conflict was the first

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ethnic conflict in that region. After the dissolving of Ussr.

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 At the time the Soviet Union was dissolved, both 2 countries has declared their independence. At that time

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Nagorno Karaba in Azerbaijan, called Tagu Karaba, in Armenia. It is called that is, an international recognized Azerbaijan land with a Armenian majority

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 The first war has started in the 1990 s. That the Nagorno Karaba, with the motivation of both Armenia and Russia, have declared their independence from Azerbaijan.

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with with with with the referendum which was boycotted by the Azerbaijan population, also in the international arena, Boycotted by Turkey also?

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And after that referendum Armenia tried to annex that region to its border. So that was the first, the beginning of the issue, and in 1,992 600 Azerbaijani civilians were

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killed in Hojel, and a missed group is established to deal with the issue under Osce.

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which Turkey is also supporting the Myths group, but with the principles of the integrity of Azerbaijan land, and also opposing the declaration of the Independent

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Nagornen and Karaba, autonomous region with that principles. And after that conflict in the beginning of the 19 nineties.

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nearly 13% of people of Azerbaijan were forced to leave their hometown.

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When we look at the Turkey and Azerbaijan relations, we are coming from historical also background. We have a same one nation, 2 states. We, we say that we are. Both countries are coming from the same origin.

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And the there are many historical and cultural ties, and they all the times. Turkey explicitly supported Azerbaijan, but also trying to keep the balance with the Russia also, which is not an easy thing.

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and after that first war a Turkish masavich on signed an agreement, and then one in other training cooperation agreement was signed.

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and at that time also, Russia in the same time signed an agreement with Armenia. Establishing an ally which was a contradiction of this problem.

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One more strategic partnership, a mutual assistance agreement between Turkey and Azerbaijan, and one more packed between Russia and Armenia. So there was a contradiction, and there was a tension, and that

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after that first war, what has changed in the time of the first world? We we may say that the military power all Many of us highly, much more stronger than Azerbaijan. But in that time Azerbaijan did a good thing in terms of economy, and Gdp issues.

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and also with the help of Turkey of 30 years army capacity building. They have also moved forward in establishing an army in a realignment with the Western approach.

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 The at that time, Turkey.

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a you know it. Turkey of us called as a game changer in that world.

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It was not pronounced by me, but also some academics, but also by some ministerial

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for nephews of many different countries. In this room. A. It was not only the a drawn or unarmed aerial vehicle issue, it was the a a tangible one at that time with the use of the Turkish drones in that war. But

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it was. It is an undervalue of

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efforts of both Azerbaijan, or, let's say, Turkey in to any. Some years in establishing an army capacity building issues.

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So the role we can see. The turkey has a plate

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that command resolved. The second war was trained in Turkish Metraq and demand graduated from the Turkish Metro Academy at that time. If we have some population of Azerbaijani students and cadets which we gorgeous yearly from the Turkish Military Academy, and there were also the supervising and advisory role of Turkish generals and senior officers to the senior commanding personnel of Azerbaijan.

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and there was also a to any some years old army cappus. The building efforts which in this room my friend Professor lugger and me at when we were academics at the Turkish Military Academy was also were also bought.

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assigned in Azerbaijan to supervise the Military Education Order.

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So that's also a real and living issue at the time. Turkey was also volunteering for some third party in Walmart, in Libya, recently in Ukraine, in grain deal agreement, etc. So, Let's cut it short

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because it has lasted 44 days.

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There was the second war

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erez agmoni. There was the explicit support of Turkey to the war. Russia did not want to intervene actively and try to shade the final word after the conflict, but 150,

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and also the missed group was not so active.

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we believe, with the with the pressure of the Armenian, the Asporia in that means group countries in us and in France, etc. But At the end the deal was done that the Armenia agreed to withdraw from those problematic,

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Areas, and although Russia does not want a third party to play a role in that issue.

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In in that region the Turkish and Russia together has established a joint cease-five c. 5. Monitoring center, which is also still operating in the area, and we may see that

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The localized security, the intersectional external and internal issues. And this was also a case study in the Turkish side, because the nationalistic.

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a movement in Turkey, in internal politics also played a motivator role to intervene in most more actively in that Armenia and Azerbaijan issue which has also gained.

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which has also added some power to a re-elected President Erdogan, both in the internal politics

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and also in the international arena to project some power in some future international agreements on the table. Lastly.

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he may say that

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why Turkey has intervened because that localized security issues has played a role, the E gaining some power in the internal politics also motivated to intervene in that regional issue. And in this regional conflicts also is generating a name.

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Approach an ideal international security or peace building in the international arena. We may say that, and I may complete

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to present the Turkish intervention in Armenia, Azerbaijan war as an exemplary case for a globalized security navy established concept. Thank you.

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This

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to

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next up is Marij from Poland all the way from Mars, and we are running a little bit late. So

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when Maurek is finishing we will have 5 min for questions. So we we? We are pressed for time, so does this. but

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it is what it is. Yes, so it's fine

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advising me to improvise.

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because actually, my real job I had for the last 45 years is a suggest critic. And this is just a issue.

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I decided to actually last night to write it

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hopefully.

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I should.

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because I was afraid that if I want just to speak, or probably

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go for 2 h.

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not the time

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right

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top of it by

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is not very corporate. Your

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right, so I'll just get on with it. And the title is the Easternization of the Atlantic Alliance. It's just a word that I I was thinking

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that I invented.

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but in the case sorry.

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Oh.

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sorry.

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I put it here now.

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he.

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because I need to re it.

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Okay, yes, we just adjusted a bit yet. Sorry, I'll just okay.

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Laptop, because I might.

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Oh, yeah.

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So what I'm presenting here is a progress report in the project that started only in February this year. It was both bowed by a number of stupid headlines that started to appear in a number of newspapers, magazines and the portals, such as Ukraine, world's natal centre prior to the Eastern.

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towards Poland, and the spectator of English faith, the Spectator, or how Poland became the new centre of gravity in Europe in the Washington Post.

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so followed by flurry of media reports.

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articles, and analysis I've once, I found, were in Cnn. BBC. Financial times. The Times developed fastly figuro.

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Italian news, television, Rai, the stampile de. But the Portuguese television that's folks from day the Welsh and daily

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and all of them highlighting the growing importance of the Polish Alliance as the new distributor and the new distribution of European power

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obviously being a poll that was something of with more than small interest to me. Its role in strengthening the Atlantic Alliance was underlined by Congress and Mike Rogers.

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the chairman of the Us. House of Armed Services Committee, in a statement subsequently published in a Foreign policy magazine on May the twelfth.

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2,023, under the title NATO's got a new backbone on the same day, and the Ukrainian scholar to a scooter published

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on the Atlantic Council of Ukraine. Alert page analysis titled Poland and the Ukraine emerging alliance that could reshape Europe.

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trying to grasp some estimation of that shift, I noted that several media sources pointed to the influence of Poland

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and Baltic states in the adoption of a resolute stance against Russian expansion by countries that had previously avoid taking one such as Germany and France. I quote the backbone of NATO, once centered on Paris and Berlin, is shifting this towards because of Eastern European nations, understand more acutely than their Western neighbors. Literature

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threat posed by Russia and the imperative for collective result. That's again, Congressman.

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my gorgeous. So I propose to this, describe the attitudinal shift in for the need of a better name the Easternisation of Atlantic Alliance. I'm aware that originally the word istanisation described the process that developed in the late 60 s. When my generation

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and

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I'm an old hippie

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started to question the traditional Western world view in favor of beliefs, values, and practices characteristic of Eastern civilizations come the 2,016. It gained further currency in the nineties as a short hand for Western adoption of mostly Japanese management techniques, but

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its use has been expanded in recent years to refer to a more general process of cultural exchange as opposed to simply to those relating

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here. I use it exclusively to describe changes in attitude towards Eastern European countries and Russia amongst NATO Member States.

435
01:33:06.030 --> 01:33:19.579
But what if this supposed shift is just a short-lived media phenomenon. if it really is a process of such magnitude and transformative power as it's being suggested. Its origin, trajectory

436
01:33:19.620 --> 01:33:22.840
and possible outcomes are worth investigating.

437
01:33:23.060 --> 01:33:31.859
The difficulty in measuring it lays in the fact that stylization is really a compound of 3 different trends of changing attitudes.

438
01:33:32.050 --> 01:33:34.860
One of the West's European

439
01:33:35.050 --> 01:33:55.699
countries, France and German in particular, to Russian, posted to the role of Eastern European countries in Atlantic Alliance, and 3 Eastern European countries own evolving understanding of their position in the wider European context. None of them alone, in the absence of the other 2, would, in my opinion.

440
01:33:55.820 --> 01:34:20.280
is the power to change Europe's internal dynamics. That's from Charles Victor. The whole process of istanization can be seen to a degree, is a major mirror image of Europeanization that we form. The members of the Soviet book, released from the points tyranny were supposed to undergo. Once they joined NATO, and the European Union.

441
01:34:20.890 --> 01:34:27.439
Europeanization was generally described in literature as an exercise in which countries subjected to

442
01:34:28.120 --> 01:34:34.050
to it. We're socialized in intrinsically Western norms and values. That's shim off. He

443
01:34:34.360 --> 01:34:38.559
2,003, as you know, fending, and so on. May 2,004.

444
01:34:38.830 --> 01:35:07.489
So I would. Sorry I'm touching a cold. I didn't expect it to be so called here. I would argue that this process was far from one-sided over the past 20 or so years. By the virtue of being inside the European family, the new NATO members from Central and Eastern Europe were able gradually affect the strategic priorities and the sections of threats facing the Alliance. The current war in Ukraine only made this process obvious.

445
01:35:07.610 --> 01:35:24.310
All this means that at least some of the constituent trends of Islamization must have a long history with its own dynamics. However, we know that there is also a positive opposite view most clearly expressed by the German Chancellor, Olav Kohl's famous

446
01:35:24.310 --> 01:35:42.279
sight, and then the speech he gave on February 22, a year ago at the Bundestag, claiming that suddenly, 3 days earlier the world walk up the completely new, unexpected, geopolitical reality in the light of the Russian attack on Ukraine

447
01:35:43.420 --> 01:35:53.150
at the turn of the century, most academic writing, onnate enlargement was concerned with changes actual and expected, brought by the new members.

448
01:35:53.200 --> 01:36:14.359
New members. Those countries, while adopting democratic governance and free market economy, were observed to be selective in applying their precepts. Jack could be 2,004, and we're struggling with establishing effective civilian oversight of the armed forces. Simon 1,996, to establish it and to

449
01:36:14.360 --> 01:36:26.719
consolidate political and economic reform. Resolved minority issues and border disputes. They needed a golden carot gifted by the West in the form of NATO membership. That's

450
01:36:26.790 --> 01:36:38.639
as since 2,002, however, the view of the intake of new members shifted NATO's Post, Cold War Center of gravity, and that's his quote

451
01:36:38.690 --> 01:36:54.369
undeniably towards exploiting stability eastwards and southwards we find it in crooked in 2,003. So the phrase appeared in academic publishing publication long before it hit the newspaper headlines.

452
01:36:54.800 --> 01:37:01.330
East European writing on the subject, started to appear around 2,004, but became really pronounced after

453
01:37:01.430 --> 01:37:05.750
2022, and a distinctively critical tone.

454
01:37:05.780 --> 01:37:24.219
It pointed a hidden assumption in the Europeanization thesis, apparently quite detectable, especially among German scholars regarding generalized Western values as a golden standard of behavior that East Europeans were expected to attain in time.

455
01:37:24.880 --> 01:37:53.099
It is instructive to compare the one of 2 papers, both published in 2,007, and both containing words Easternization and Europeanization, their titles well written by Canadian, and the other by a Hungarian professor. The first one states that East European elites have more often did not, in obsessed with overcoming their chronic position on the marriages or periphery of Western political and economic currents

456
01:37:53.370 --> 01:37:58.760
coin that's 2,007. Well, the other, referring to the same period.

457
01:37:58.780 --> 01:38:05.630
observes that these countries were put back in its place, Lang Ju. 2,007

458
01:38:06.050 --> 01:38:23.989
from the 2010 scholars from Central Eastern Europe became increasingly more critical of their West European colleagues for treating Ethiopian countries as a homogeneous block that still nots in 2,011, and

459
01:38:24.130 --> 01:38:32.760
an object rather than, and subject of strategic games, in which the usual suspects the big powers determine the stakes and trajectory.

460
01:38:32.960 --> 01:38:35.820
This is Nemes and Kuroska.

461
01:38:36.000 --> 01:38:38.070
2,013

462
01:38:38.140 --> 01:39:03.750
sub-regional subversional studies, such as on the strategic and the importance of the Northern distributing distribution network schools in atomic, now 2,013, and on an influence exerted by the Nordic countries on the formulation of civilian aspects of Esdp. Yacobs in 2,009, clearly highlighted this deficiency.

463
01:39:04.120 --> 01:39:23.950
We can then divide Western English language, academic writing on Russia into 3 parts, first from May 2,004 to February 2,014, or from Russian invasion of Georgia to its first notation, kind territory, the second from February

464
01:39:24.140 --> 01:39:30.049
2,014 to February 2,022, the date of the second invasion of the.

465
01:39:30.090 --> 01:39:36.749
and the last recent one from February 22 on 2,022.

466
01:39:37.060 --> 01:39:56.519
Here are some striking results that the match in the first period few authors of those publications be books of papers. So Russia and its policy as a threat, rather as a partner in transformation and progression. This is Motel. Ramon shifts over 2,005,

467
01:39:56.530 --> 01:39:58.520
and advising that

468
01:39:58.870 --> 01:40:14.429
I quote the EU and NATO must try harder to reduce Moscow's anxieties about European and native policies for that 2,009. It's even suggested that

469
01:40:14.610 --> 01:40:24.249
I quote cooperative arrangement with Russia is a real possibility that should at least be explored as an alternative to all things. NATO

470
01:40:24.500 --> 01:40:27.490
booked in

471
01:40:28.180 --> 01:40:32.130
3 min. I'm just ending my introduction.

472
01:40:44.140 --> 01:40:56.390
Well, if you give me your cards, if anybody is interested in the subject, I'm quite happy to distribute the paper. What follows is also

473
01:40:56.410 --> 01:41:01.040
a textual analysis of all

474
01:41:01.150 --> 01:41:09.980
for that happened in this period in discussion. NATO strategic documents.

475
01:41:10.190 --> 01:41:13.230
I couldn't get the

476
01:41:13.980 --> 01:41:19.559
German National Strategy. It was supposed to be published

477
01:41:19.810 --> 01:41:26.580
in in January, and I think it's going to be published

478
01:41:27.250 --> 01:41:29.690
over in 10 h from now

479
01:41:29.790 --> 01:41:31.279
with a little delay.

480
01:41:31.860 --> 01:41:34.830
What

481
01:41:35.300 --> 01:41:37.010
I'm missing.

482
01:41:37.410 --> 01:41:42.520
and I have to say it's a project in its

483
01:41:42.820 --> 01:41:45.629
in its very early stages

484
01:41:45.950 --> 01:41:50.680
is some solid

485
01:41:51.040 --> 01:41:54.220
methodological, conceptual background to it.

486
01:41:54.670 --> 01:41:58.969
There are no longitudinal studies

487
01:41:59.000 --> 01:42:00.450
of the changing

488
01:42:00.610 --> 01:42:06.500
attitudes in Europe towards Russia

489
01:42:06.630 --> 01:42:08.800
there are various. is it

490
01:42:08.970 --> 01:42:24.730
opinion? Pulse pew, run by Rand, some European ones, euro parameter? But you cannot really use them as on a basis to create

491
01:42:25.400 --> 01:42:33.650
a sequence of events. In fact, actually, I I forgot, I have in my

492
01:42:34.030 --> 01:42:38.839
about something which I got just an average in this.

493
01:42:39.120 --> 01:42:44.250
like everything in this, in my presentation, is very, very, very.

494
01:42:45.150 --> 01:42:48.950
I was given A and

495
01:42:53.600 --> 01:43:03.739
a study periodically. The opinion poll of Polish and German opinion polls on

496
01:43:04.080 --> 01:43:09.469
various aspects of European policy. But this is on

497
01:43:09.690 --> 01:43:11.250
perception of

498
01:43:11.330 --> 01:43:14.200
Russia.

499
01:43:14.580 --> 01:43:23.180
Threats from Russia. It's done by the Polish Institute of Public affairs, and

500
01:43:23.270 --> 01:43:28.820
it's very interesting, because by pure chance they did one.

501
01:43:28.960 --> 01:43:30.910
They completed

502
01:43:31.010 --> 01:43:43.999
2 weeks before the last Russian invasion on Ukraine in the in February last year, so they immediately repeated it

503
01:43:44.070 --> 01:43:50.250
a month later. and my thesis is

504
01:43:50.390 --> 01:43:55.410
quite well supported by it, and the thesis is that

505
01:43:55.870 --> 01:43:56.560
oh.

506
01:43:57.380 --> 01:44:04.319
at this point it's rather a hypothesis and a thesis that

507
01:44:04.740 --> 01:44:08.209
countries of Central Europe did influence

508
01:44:08.550 --> 01:44:15.449
the perception of by West European countries. And it this shows a graph.

509
01:44:16.120 --> 01:44:29.740
And really I cannot. I wasn't even able to incorporate it in my presentation, because it came virtually. I was given it on my way to to Melbourne, and it shows 2 graphs

510
01:44:29.830 --> 01:44:48.130
about that's full of opinion polls, and showing the perception of threat perception how Germans and polls perceive Russian threat, and while in 2,015

511
01:44:48.140 --> 01:44:59.550
and 76% of polls perceived the Russian threat as real. Only 41 Germans did

512
01:44:59.680 --> 01:45:04.410
in March 2,022.

513
01:45:04.440 --> 01:45:13.859
It's almost converge almost with the 1,979 polls. Perceiving a digital Russian threat and 74 Germans.

514
01:45:14.709 --> 01:45:16.170
My.

515
01:45:19.240 --> 01:45:24.180
Ok, so thank you.

516
01:45:24.719 --> 01:45:30.059
I'm happy to answer questions.

517
01:45:30.350 --> 01:45:47.469
We lost our time a little bit. So we have only one question that left. Because otherwise, if if if you're surprised, why polls always feels like their victims.